$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper, which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.”

— Lord Byron

September 24, 2025 — I’ve been feasting on snacks and watching the glowing computer monitor as gold futures just went up and tagged $3,800 and silver futures just went up and tagged $44.44 on Tuesday.

My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.

Regardless, I figured it would be a good idea to blast out this brief “flash update” to readers here that may not be glued to their screens (like this commodities nerd is).
So, let’s get into it…

Earlier this week, Gold Futures were up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…

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Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?

Remember when $1,450 got tagged to the downside during the pandemic crash and then pundits got worried that the $1,045 Major Low from December 2015 was going get retested again to start a new bear market?

Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)

Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?

Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?

Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?

Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800! The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.

Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers.

Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices.

You’ll have to calculate those NPVs on your own, because most company slide decks are still using an $1,800 – $2,400 base case, and then have their upside cases on the sensitivities tables at $3,000 gold or maybe $3,500. (In effect, their upside cases are now downside cases.)

Now, further consider that most of the development-stage projects are still being valued at $20-$60 an ounce in the ground, while the current margins for gold producers are $1,500-$2,000+ per ounce pulled out of the ground.

Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?

Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?

If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?

A Note of Caution

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%:

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The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).

A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.

I’m not saying that we necessarily have to see that same pattern play out this time as we switch from Summer to Fall here in 2025, because we are in a much more solid acceleration phase of this bull market now, and the market breadth can stay bullish longer than people expect.

What I am hinting at though, is that if we saw the PM markets cool down a bit heading into October, then it wouldn’t really be a surprise; considering we’re at max bullishness on this breadth and sentiment indicator.

Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!

Regards,
Shad Marquitz
Excelsior Prosperity Substack & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: Shad’s insights into the commodities markets go deep. He makes a great guest on Grey Swan Live!, which he’ll be once again tomorrow with Andrew Packer. You can also dig in with Shad in every edition of the monthly Grey Swan Investment Bulletin for paid-up Fraternity members.

Tomorrow, our Andrew and Shad will review gold’s headline-grabbing move and the latest developments in the uranium, lithium and rare earths. Together, they’ll outline the best commodity plays for you through the end of 2025 and highlight the stocks you would do better to avoid.

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If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper, which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.”

— Lord Byron

My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.

Earlier this week, Gold Futures were up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…

Turn Your Images On

Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?

Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)

Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?

Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?

Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?

Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800! The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.

Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers.

Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices.

Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?

Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?

If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?

A Note of Caution

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%:

Turn Your Images On

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).

A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.

Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!

Regards,
Shad Marquitz
Excelsior Prosperity Substack & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Turn Your Images On

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

A Note of Caution

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

A Note of Caution

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived