$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper, which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.”

— Lord Byron

September 24, 2025 — I’ve been feasting on snacks and watching the glowing computer monitor as gold futures just went up and tagged $3,800 and silver futures just went up and tagged $44.44 on Tuesday.

My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.

Regardless, I figured it would be a good idea to blast out this brief “flash update” to readers here that may not be glued to their screens (like this commodities nerd is).
So, let’s get into it…

Earlier this week, Gold Futures were up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…

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Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?

Remember when $1,450 got tagged to the downside during the pandemic crash and then pundits got worried that the $1,045 Major Low from December 2015 was going get retested again to start a new bear market?

Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)

Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?

Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?

Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?

Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800! The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.

Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers.

Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices.

You’ll have to calculate those NPVs on your own, because most company slide decks are still using an $1,800 – $2,400 base case, and then have their upside cases on the sensitivities tables at $3,000 gold or maybe $3,500. (In effect, their upside cases are now downside cases.)

Now, further consider that most of the development-stage projects are still being valued at $20-$60 an ounce in the ground, while the current margins for gold producers are $1,500-$2,000+ per ounce pulled out of the ground.

Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?

Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?

If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?

A Note of Caution

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%:

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The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).

A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.

I’m not saying that we necessarily have to see that same pattern play out this time as we switch from Summer to Fall here in 2025, because we are in a much more solid acceleration phase of this bull market now, and the market breadth can stay bullish longer than people expect.

What I am hinting at though, is that if we saw the PM markets cool down a bit heading into October, then it wouldn’t really be a surprise; considering we’re at max bullishness on this breadth and sentiment indicator.

Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!

Regards,
Shad Marquitz
Excelsior Prosperity Substack & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: Shad’s insights into the commodities markets go deep. He makes a great guest on Grey Swan Live!, which he’ll be once again tomorrow with Andrew Packer. You can also dig in with Shad in every edition of the monthly Grey Swan Investment Bulletin for paid-up Fraternity members.

Tomorrow, our Andrew and Shad will review gold’s headline-grabbing move and the latest developments in the uranium, lithium and rare earths. Together, they’ll outline the best commodity plays for you through the end of 2025 and highlight the stocks you would do better to avoid.

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If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper, which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.”

— Lord Byron

My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.

Earlier this week, Gold Futures were up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…

Turn Your Images On

Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?

Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)

Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?

Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?

Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?

Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800! The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.

Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers.

Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices.

Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?

Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?

If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?

A Note of Caution

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%:

Turn Your Images On

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).

A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.

Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!

Regards,
Shad Marquitz
Excelsior Prosperity Substack & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Turn Your Images On

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

A Note of Caution

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

A Note of Caution

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived