$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper, which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.”

— Lord Byron

September 24, 2025 — I’ve been feasting on snacks and watching the glowing computer monitor as gold futures just went up and tagged $3,800 and silver futures just went up and tagged $44.44 on Tuesday.

My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.

Regardless, I figured it would be a good idea to blast out this brief “flash update” to readers here that may not be glued to their screens (like this commodities nerd is).
So, let’s get into it…

Earlier this week, Gold Futures were up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…

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Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?

Remember when $1,450 got tagged to the downside during the pandemic crash and then pundits got worried that the $1,045 Major Low from December 2015 was going get retested again to start a new bear market?

Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)

Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?

Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?

Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?

Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800! The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.

Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers.

Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices.

You’ll have to calculate those NPVs on your own, because most company slide decks are still using an $1,800 – $2,400 base case, and then have their upside cases on the sensitivities tables at $3,000 gold or maybe $3,500. (In effect, their upside cases are now downside cases.)

Now, further consider that most of the development-stage projects are still being valued at $20-$60 an ounce in the ground, while the current margins for gold producers are $1,500-$2,000+ per ounce pulled out of the ground.

Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?

Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?

If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?

A Note of Caution

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%:

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The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).

A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.

I’m not saying that we necessarily have to see that same pattern play out this time as we switch from Summer to Fall here in 2025, because we are in a much more solid acceleration phase of this bull market now, and the market breadth can stay bullish longer than people expect.

What I am hinting at though, is that if we saw the PM markets cool down a bit heading into October, then it wouldn’t really be a surprise; considering we’re at max bullishness on this breadth and sentiment indicator.

Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!

Regards,
Shad Marquitz
Excelsior Prosperity Substack & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: Shad’s insights into the commodities markets go deep. He makes a great guest on Grey Swan Live!, which he’ll be once again tomorrow with Andrew Packer. You can also dig in with Shad in every edition of the monthly Grey Swan Investment Bulletin for paid-up Fraternity members.

Tomorrow, our Andrew and Shad will review gold’s headline-grabbing move and the latest developments in the uranium, lithium and rare earths. Together, they’ll outline the best commodity plays for you through the end of 2025 and highlight the stocks you would do better to avoid.

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If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper, which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.”

— Lord Byron

My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.

Earlier this week, Gold Futures were up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…

Turn Your Images On

Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?

Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)

Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?

Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?

Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?

Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800! The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.

Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers.

Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices.

Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?

Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?

If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?

A Note of Caution

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%:

Turn Your Images On

The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).

A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.

Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!

Regards,
Shad Marquitz
Excelsior Prosperity Substack & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Turn Your Images On

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

The gold standard came into being in the 18th century. It got gassed in WWI. Then, after WWII, it was re-established, sort of. The dollar was made the key financial reserve. And the dollar was linked to gold.

Then, in 1971, the last link with gold was cut. Since then, several efforts were made to re-install some sort of guardrails. In the ‘70s, we were personally part of the drive for a Constitutional Amendment that would make deficits illegal. In the ‘80s, our friend Grover Norquist succeeded in getting prospective members of Congress to sign The Pledge, crossing their hearts and hoping to die if they increased taxes

It’s not a secret that Trump’s mercantilism looks backward. Making America great again is inherently nostalgic, fomenting into dreams of resurrected domestic factories, punishing imports, and using the American consumer as so many poker chips in some post-industrial game of five-card stud.

China’s mercantilism since Deng Xiaoping told his subjects that “getting rich is glorious” in 1978 has been looking forward: capturing tomorrow’s industries — AI, quantum computing, green tech — before anyone else can.

Adam Smith warned that mercantilism’s obsession with trade surpluses was “incompatible with the accumulation of wealth for citizens.”

Today, that warning rings fresh. Investors are no longer betting on markets alone, but on their marriage to state power. Lithium in Nevada, chips in Minnesota, sovereign gold in Shanghai — these are the dowries of the new era.

Soaring AI stocks aren’t just reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1998-2000. Rather, they feel much like a Hollywood remake, nearly beat-for-beat.

Like the fervor for anything with a “.com” after it back then, AI exuberance is pushing stocks to be valued far higher than the reality of what AI will ever be recouped by earnings.

Remember what happened when they conjured $5 trillion out of thin air during the pandemic? Inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years.

Kicking off the next money-printing cycle from $6.6 trillion instead of $4 trillion — with so much pandemic-era cash still sloshing around the system — all but guarantees double-digit inflation. We’re talking about potential currency destruction on a scale — and at a speed — America has never seen.

Position accordingly.

Adam Smith warned that mercantilism’s obsession with trade surpluses was “incompatible with the accumulation of wealth for citizens.”

Soaring AI stocks aren’t just reminiscent of the tech bubble in 1998-2000. Rather, they feel much like a Hollywood remake, nearly beat-for-beat.

Like the fervor for anything with a “.com” after it back then, AI exuberance is pushing stocks to be valued far higher than the reality of what AI will ever be recouped by earnings.

Remember what happened when they conjured $5 trillion out of thin air during the pandemic? Inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years.

Position accordingly.

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

A Note of Caution

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived

A Note of Caution

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived

$3,800 Gold and $44 Silver
Have Arrived