The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity now has members in over 28 countries! That’s not including members of our investor’s network, who also reach into countries such as Russia and China.
Thank you for being a member of our fraternity, and for helping expand the map. We look forward to updating it further!
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity member map as of 12/10/2024
November 17, 2025 • Andrew Packer
The market seems to know something about private credit that we don’t. And in a big enough liquidity event for private credit, investors will have to sell off more liquid assets if they want capital.
That’s the danger private credit poses today, exactly at a time when rules are being eased to make it easier for retail investors like us to buy into this asset class.
I’m in the camp that this smells like a way to keep the party going by providing another source of liquidity – the passive investment flows from your regular 401(k) contributions. The smell takes on a sour note as this sector starts to falter.
Perhaps today’s selloff is simply a reaction to declining interest rates, the growth of private credit, and a few inevitable deals that have gone sour recently.
November 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
More money sloshing around in the system means daily life has gotten more expensive. Not rocket science.
We’ve all observed certain goods — TVs, laptops, the gadgets we don’t need but buy anyway — keep getting cheaper, often while getting better.
But the Big Four killers of household budgets: healthcare, housing, childcare, and education, are marching upward like a military parade.
Add Biden-era price-level stickiness and Trump-era tariffs whose full effects haven’t even landed yet, and you get the stew voters have been choking down.
November 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
Credit default swaps (CDS) are a tool that measures the cost to insure against a company’s debt.
A soaring CDS suggests that investors are demanding a higher return. The implication? That debt isn’t as safe as it may appear.
It’s also a sign that the liquidity crisis and dangers in the private credit market are starting to show up in the mega-cap companies that are raising debt to invest in AI and data centers. And if that starts a slowdown, it could mean that the stock market hits the brakes.
November 14, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
I’m obviously very biased against socialism. I don’t think socialism has solutions to these problems. I don’t think Mamdani particularly has solutions. I don’t think you can socialize housing. If you just impose rent controls, then you probably have even less housing, and eventually, it’s even more expensive.
But to Mamdani’s credit, he at least talked about these problems. So my cop-out answer is always to say: The first step is to talk about the problems, even if you don’t know what to do about them. There’s been a failure of, let’s say, the center left-center right establishment to even talk about them.
