The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity now has members in over 28 countries! That’s not including members of our investor’s network, who also reach into countries such as Russia and China.
Thank you for being a member of our fraternity, and for helping expand the map. We look forward to updating it further!
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity member map as of 12/10/2024
January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.
President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.
Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.
January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”
This year, you could add a Trump corollary.
A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.
In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.
January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.
It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.
January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The “Donroe Doctrine,” the White House is calling… because Trump hasn’t yet stamped his name on every facet of U.S. political life.
America in the Americas. China in East Asia. Russia, where Russia still can.
There is a certain gangster logic to it. Not the UN Charter. Not the Magna Carta. More Godfather than Geneva.
Markets, predictably, shrugged.
Oil stocks rallied. Defense stocks jumped. Consultants booked flights to the oil fields near Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt.
