The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity now has members in over 28 countries! That’s not including members of our investor’s network, who also reach into countries such as Russia and China.
Thank you for being a member of our fraternity, and for helping expand the map. We look forward to updating it further!
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity member map as of 12/10/2024
October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
There’s something about big, round numbers that draws investors like moths to a flame.
In the stock market, every 1,000 points in the Dow or 100 points in the S&P 500 tends to act like a magnet.
Now, after consolidating for five months, gold has broken higher to $4,000.
October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
AI stocks are running hot. They’re not the only game in town… but they’re about half of it.
JPMorgan just reviewed all of the 500 companies in the S&P 500. A full 41 of them are AI-related. While that’s less than 10% of the index by total, it is over 45% of the index by market cap.
October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.
The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.
Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.
October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.
While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.
They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.
