The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity now has members in over 28 countries! That’s not including members of our investor’s network, who also reach into countries such as Russia and China.
Thank you for being a member of our fraternity, and for helping expand the map. We look forward to updating it further!
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity member map as of 12/10/2024
December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys
Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.
And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.
Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”
He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.
December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.
Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.
Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.
Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.
And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.
December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.
On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.
America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.
December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.
The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.
The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.
