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Beneath the Surface

2025 State of the Union

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 6, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


Money flow

2025 State of the Union

~~James West, Midas Letter

It is said that it is a common perception among older people is that they are living in the “end times”. Martin Luther in the 14th century, Issac Newton in the 1700’s, Ronald Regan and a long list of others dating back thousands of years all believed the end was nigh.

And yet, here we all are. Another year, another set of hurdles to leap, opportunities to explore, relationships to maintain or end or start. Funerals to go to. Weddings. Parties. Concerts. Vacations. A full list of life’s events that fill the days until the days come to an end. Every day, some shuffle off this mortal coil, while others begin.

What is remarkable to me is that we spend so much of our lives in vain pursuits of that which ultimately we acknowledge is meaningless, often ignoring the most meaningful and ultimately valuable experiences, or taking them for granted.

The best passage of a life, that passes in the blink of an eye, is to arrive at the point where you can put yourself in the midst of all that you truly value, and that is valuable from the perspective of your physical, emotional, financial, spiritual and mental well being without having to compromise the important relationships and associations that make life truly interesting, and fill it with meaning.

Love, after all, is the only thing that you take with you into the next realm when you die. You leave it behind, and it lingers in the air among those who you knew and who knew and loved you. So one could argue that love is the only worthwhile pursuit.

All that aside, we are unfortunately cursed with the day-to-day requirement to make money, and thus, as somebody who only seems to care about money when I run out, I am rolling up my sleeves for yet another turn at the trough, elbowing my way into the fray to attract sufficient wealth that I can return to my bucolic and pastoral country existence where I am surrounded by all that matters.

So, now we look around the world in 2025, consider some of the news tools on the scene, like AI and crypto, and ponder the best use of energy to achieve the required income.

Where will the money flow?

That is what we want to know.

Obviously, the opportunities inherent in the explosion of AI and all the computing resources that implies – electricity, chips, water, real estate, talent – stands out as a worthwhile segment to consider.

xAI, Open AI, Anthropic (now essentially Amazon AI). All present opportunities to deploy capital and harvest a profit at some point in the future.

As a service provider to the masses of publicly traded and funded companies out there, I gravitate toward where the capital is gravitating, because thats where budgets for content production and distribution are being spent.

Following the money. Like Cariboo following the grass.

From an investment perspective, it’s confusing as ever to get a sense of which direction the market is going to go. With the wild card of Donald Trump bringing the highest possible degree of unpredictability into the mix, a forecast is impossible.

So, as usual, we can look at what we know, acknowledge what we don’t know, and consider that against what has the highest potential to occur.

 

~~James West, Midas Letter


China Just Rewrote the Silver Story

January 8, 2026 • Lau Vegys

Roughly 70–80% of global silver supply comes as a byproduct of mining other metals—copper, lead, zinc, gold. This means that even if silver prices doubled tomorrow, production wouldn’t automatically increase unless mining of those other metals ramped up too. You can’t just “decide” to mine more silver.

Layer China’s export controls on top of all that, and you’re looking at a supply profile that’s unusually tight—and unusually vulnerable.

China Just Rewrote the Silver Story
A Low-Stress Start to the Year

January 8, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures  levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”

A Low-Stress Start to the Year
The Silver Switch

January 7, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In late December, just days before the controls took effect, silver in Shanghai traded near $78 per ounce, while the COMEX closed closer to $72. A six-dollar gap.

Normally, that spread would collapse almost instantly. Traders would buy cheap metal and sell it at a higher price until the prices converged.

Since January 1, 2026, that hasn’t happened.

Physical silver inside China carried a premium that paper markets couldn’t erase.

At the same time, London’s bullion market slipped into what traders call “backwardation” — buyers willing to pay more now than later, a classic signal of supply stress.

This is what it looks like when settlement frictions appear.

The Silver Switch
The Dollar Wanes as Gold Surges

January 7, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The U.S. dollar is being dethroned from the global monetary system in real time.

While many have pointed out – correctly – that the buck is still the global trading currency of choice, the rise of gold for savings is the real story here… even with Dollar 2.0 digital assets rebooting global finance.

Following gold’s 60% rally in 2025, we expect gold’s uptrend to remain intact.

The Dollar Wanes as Gold Surges