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Beneath the Surface

2025 State of the Union

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 6, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


Money flow

2025 State of the Union

~~James West, Midas Letter

It is said that it is a common perception among older people is that they are living in the “end times”. Martin Luther in the 14th century, Issac Newton in the 1700’s, Ronald Regan and a long list of others dating back thousands of years all believed the end was nigh.

And yet, here we all are. Another year, another set of hurdles to leap, opportunities to explore, relationships to maintain or end or start. Funerals to go to. Weddings. Parties. Concerts. Vacations. A full list of life’s events that fill the days until the days come to an end. Every day, some shuffle off this mortal coil, while others begin.

What is remarkable to me is that we spend so much of our lives in vain pursuits of that which ultimately we acknowledge is meaningless, often ignoring the most meaningful and ultimately valuable experiences, or taking them for granted.

The best passage of a life, that passes in the blink of an eye, is to arrive at the point where you can put yourself in the midst of all that you truly value, and that is valuable from the perspective of your physical, emotional, financial, spiritual and mental well being without having to compromise the important relationships and associations that make life truly interesting, and fill it with meaning.

Love, after all, is the only thing that you take with you into the next realm when you die. You leave it behind, and it lingers in the air among those who you knew and who knew and loved you. So one could argue that love is the only worthwhile pursuit.

All that aside, we are unfortunately cursed with the day-to-day requirement to make money, and thus, as somebody who only seems to care about money when I run out, I am rolling up my sleeves for yet another turn at the trough, elbowing my way into the fray to attract sufficient wealth that I can return to my bucolic and pastoral country existence where I am surrounded by all that matters.

So, now we look around the world in 2025, consider some of the news tools on the scene, like AI and crypto, and ponder the best use of energy to achieve the required income.

Where will the money flow?

That is what we want to know.

Obviously, the opportunities inherent in the explosion of AI and all the computing resources that implies – electricity, chips, water, real estate, talent – stands out as a worthwhile segment to consider.

xAI, Open AI, Anthropic (now essentially Amazon AI). All present opportunities to deploy capital and harvest a profit at some point in the future.

As a service provider to the masses of publicly traded and funded companies out there, I gravitate toward where the capital is gravitating, because thats where budgets for content production and distribution are being spent.

Following the money. Like Cariboo following the grass.

From an investment perspective, it’s confusing as ever to get a sense of which direction the market is going to go. With the wild card of Donald Trump bringing the highest possible degree of unpredictability into the mix, a forecast is impossible.

So, as usual, we can look at what we know, acknowledge what we don’t know, and consider that against what has the highest potential to occur.

 

~~James West, Midas Letter


The Mirage of High Income

November 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

We’ve lived through the greatest borrowing binge in modern history, and yet the national mood feels poorer, more brittle, less confident.

There’s a familiar pattern here: the higher the noise, the more critical it becomes to tune it out. The markets will surge and swoon, the political class will posture, and commentators will insist that this time is different.

Our biggest concern, meanwhile, is that with a collapsing stock market, economic anxiety will reach fever highs. And with it the political divide in the country will become even more performative, expressive and violent.

Civil society cannot sustain a credit crisis.

The real work — the only work that actually matters — happens at the level of your own finances, your own decisions, your own family. No administration, blue or red, can insulate you from a balance sheet that doesn’t balance.

The Mirage of High Income
Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!

November 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!
The Debasement “Trade”

November 18, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

The Debasement “Trade”
The Cult of Stock Market Riches

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

The Cult of Stock Market Riches