2025 State of the Union

~~James West, Midas Letter

It is said that it is a common perception among older people is that they are living in the “end times”. Martin Luther in the 14th century, Issac Newton in the 1700’s, Ronald Regan and a long list of others dating back thousands of years all believed the end was nigh.

And yet, here we all are. Another year, another set of hurdles to leap, opportunities to explore, relationships to maintain or end or start. Funerals to go to. Weddings. Parties. Concerts. Vacations. A full list of life’s events that fill the days until the days come to an end. Every day, some shuffle off this mortal coil, while others begin.

What is remarkable to me is that we spend so much of our lives in vain pursuits of that which ultimately we acknowledge is meaningless, often ignoring the most meaningful and ultimately valuable experiences, or taking them for granted.

The best passage of a life, that passes in the blink of an eye, is to arrive at the point where you can put yourself in the midst of all that you truly value, and that is valuable from the perspective of your physical, emotional, financial, spiritual and mental well being without having to compromise the important relationships and associations that make life truly interesting, and fill it with meaning.

Love, after all, is the only thing that you take with you into the next realm when you die. You leave it behind, and it lingers in the air among those who you knew and who knew and loved you. So one could argue that love is the only worthwhile pursuit.

All that aside, we are unfortunately cursed with the day-to-day requirement to make money, and thus, as somebody who only seems to care about money when I run out, I am rolling up my sleeves for yet another turn at the trough, elbowing my way into the fray to attract sufficient wealth that I can return to my bucolic and pastoral country existence where I am surrounded by all that matters.

So, now we look around the world in 2025, consider some of the news tools on the scene, like AI and crypto, and ponder the best use of energy to achieve the required income.

Where will the money flow?

That is what we want to know.

Obviously, the opportunities inherent in the explosion of AI and all the computing resources that implies – electricity, chips, water, real estate, talent – stands out as a worthwhile segment to consider.

xAI, Open AI, Anthropic (now essentially Amazon AI). All present opportunities to deploy capital and harvest a profit at some point in the future.

As a service provider to the masses of publicly traded and funded companies out there, I gravitate toward where the capital is gravitating, because thats where budgets for content production and distribution are being spent.

Following the money. Like Cariboo following the grass.

From an investment perspective, it’s confusing as ever to get a sense of which direction the market is going to go. With the wild card of Donald Trump bringing the highest possible degree of unpredictability into the mix, a forecast is impossible.

So, as usual, we can look at what we know, acknowledge what we don’t know, and consider that against what has the highest potential to occur.

~~James West, Midas Letter

So, now we look around the world in 2025, consider some of the news tools on the scene, like AI and crypto, and ponder the best use of energy to achieve the required income.

Where will the money flow?

That is what we want to know.

xAI, Open AI, Anthropic (now essentially Amazon AI). All present opportunities to deploy capital and harvest a profit at some point in the future.

Following the money. Like Cariboo following the grass.

So, as usual, we can look at what we know, acknowledge what we don’t know, and consider that against what has the highest potential to occur.

~~James West, Midas Letter

The dollar’s share of global reserves is now roughly 40%, down from 60% in 2016. No other fiat currency filled the gap. Gold did.

That is the only fact you need to understand the long-term arc.

After the West demonstrated it could seize reserves, “safe” became a new word. Gold has no counterparty. It cannot be frozen with an executive order. It does not require permission to settle.

The last time Uncle Sam had this much debt rolling over, interest rates were effectively zero percent. That allowed for a massive expansion of total debt, even as total interest payouts shrank.

Having said all that, why does President Trump want Greenland so badly (other than as retribution for not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize)?

He insists it’s for national security, but, as I mentioned earlier, the U.S. military already has broad access to the island, as spelled out in the 1951 agreement signed by the U.S. and Denmark. Further, Greenland is under the protection of NATO, of which the U.S. is a member. If Russia or China tried to attack it, Article 5 of the treaty would be triggered, activating NATO forces.

Recent reporting suggests that some of Trump’s wealthiest backers see Greenland not as a military outpost or mining play, but as a blank slate. According to Reuters, influential tech investors—including Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen—have pitched the idea of turning parts of Greenland into a so-called “freedom city,” offering a low-regulation, quasi-autonomous hub for next-gen technologies.

Japan’s 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.

Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.

When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.

This mechanism isn’t new.

The dollar’s share of global reserves is now roughly 40%, down from 60% in 2016. No other fiat currency filled the gap. Gold did.

That is the only fact you need to understand the long-term arc.

After the West demonstrated it could seize reserves, “safe” became a new word. Gold has no counterparty. It cannot be frozen with an executive order. It does not require permission to settle.

The last time Uncle Sam had this much debt rolling over, interest rates were effectively zero percent. That allowed for a massive expansion of total debt, even as total interest payouts shrank.

Having said all that, why does President Trump want Greenland so badly (other than as retribution for not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize)?

Japan’s 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.

Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.

When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.

This mechanism isn’t new.