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Beneath the Surface

2025 State of the Union

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 6, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


Money flow

2025 State of the Union

~~James West, Midas Letter

It is said that it is a common perception among older people is that they are living in the “end times”. Martin Luther in the 14th century, Issac Newton in the 1700’s, Ronald Regan and a long list of others dating back thousands of years all believed the end was nigh.

And yet, here we all are. Another year, another set of hurdles to leap, opportunities to explore, relationships to maintain or end or start. Funerals to go to. Weddings. Parties. Concerts. Vacations. A full list of life’s events that fill the days until the days come to an end. Every day, some shuffle off this mortal coil, while others begin.

What is remarkable to me is that we spend so much of our lives in vain pursuits of that which ultimately we acknowledge is meaningless, often ignoring the most meaningful and ultimately valuable experiences, or taking them for granted.

The best passage of a life, that passes in the blink of an eye, is to arrive at the point where you can put yourself in the midst of all that you truly value, and that is valuable from the perspective of your physical, emotional, financial, spiritual and mental well being without having to compromise the important relationships and associations that make life truly interesting, and fill it with meaning.

Love, after all, is the only thing that you take with you into the next realm when you die. You leave it behind, and it lingers in the air among those who you knew and who knew and loved you. So one could argue that love is the only worthwhile pursuit.

All that aside, we are unfortunately cursed with the day-to-day requirement to make money, and thus, as somebody who only seems to care about money when I run out, I am rolling up my sleeves for yet another turn at the trough, elbowing my way into the fray to attract sufficient wealth that I can return to my bucolic and pastoral country existence where I am surrounded by all that matters.

So, now we look around the world in 2025, consider some of the news tools on the scene, like AI and crypto, and ponder the best use of energy to achieve the required income.

Where will the money flow?

That is what we want to know.

Obviously, the opportunities inherent in the explosion of AI and all the computing resources that implies – electricity, chips, water, real estate, talent – stands out as a worthwhile segment to consider.

xAI, Open AI, Anthropic (now essentially Amazon AI). All present opportunities to deploy capital and harvest a profit at some point in the future.

As a service provider to the masses of publicly traded and funded companies out there, I gravitate toward where the capital is gravitating, because thats where budgets for content production and distribution are being spent.

Following the money. Like Cariboo following the grass.

From an investment perspective, it’s confusing as ever to get a sense of which direction the market is going to go. With the wild card of Donald Trump bringing the highest possible degree of unpredictability into the mix, a forecast is impossible.

So, as usual, we can look at what we know, acknowledge what we don’t know, and consider that against what has the highest potential to occur.

 

~~James West, Midas Letter


Seven Grey Swans, One Investment Strategy

January 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The entire process of reviewing forecasts and then issuing new ones has made us more intensely focused on our purpose. We’re not actually trying to “predict the future” to parody the disdain with which so many lazy media pundits would dismiss our approach.

Rather, we’re examining trends in the news cycle and trying to separate the wheat from the chaff. What signals are coming through stronger than the nauseating cacophony of  Washington and Wall Street, amplified by legacy and social media alike?

There are years when markets feel confusing because they are volatile. And there are years when they feel confused because the old explanations no longer work.

Seven Grey Swans, One Investment Strategy
Debt Hangover? Nah…

January 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

To start the year, the U.S. government didn’t bother with a hangover, rather it continues to spend so profligately that if we compared it to a drunken sailor, we’d have to apologize to the sailor.

Closing out 2025, America managed to rack up over $38 trillion in “official” debt. Looking at debt relative to GDP, it’s back over 121%.

Debt Hangover? Nah…
Grey Swan #1: The Age of Intelligence: Rise of the Network State

January 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Grey Swan is not the invention of artificial intelligence. It is the moment the public understands that incentives have changed.

Network economics reward different behaviors than factory economics. Platform states operate by different rules than welfare states. Coordination outruns legislation. Culture lags technology. Conflict follows the gap.

In Financial Reckoning Day, we described how systems adapt when fiscal choices narrow. The Age of Intelligence represents that adaptation in software and silicon.

By the end of 2026, most people will recognize that machines now think alongside humans in logistics, finance, and planning. Some jobs disappear. Others appear. Output improves faster than consensus expects. Politics argues. Markets enforce discipline.

Grey Swan #1: The Age of Intelligence: Rise of the Network State
Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity