1998, Redux

October 31, 2025 • 54 second read

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:

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Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)

If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.

With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Ripple Effect

1998, Redux

Addison Wiggin

October 31, 2025 • 54 second read

AI Boom dotcom boom

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:

Turn Your Images On

Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)

If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.

With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

How To Know When It’s the Top

October 31, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

Things You Cannot Unsee

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt.

Socialism Whacked

October 30, 2025 • Bill Bonner

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

This One Goes To Twelve

October 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Donald Trump wrapped his Asia trip with what he called an “amazing” meeting with Xi Jinping at a military base in Busan, South Korea. The two men smiled for cameras, shook hands, and carved out a fragile truce in the ongoing trade war.

On Air Force One, Trump tried to outdo the 80s cult classic mockumentary Spinal Tap, suggesting on the scale of one to the talks were a “12.”

On a practical level, Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl production would be halved — from 20% to 10% — bringing the overall rate to 47% from 57%.

China, in turn, agreed to a one-year suspension of some rare-earth export controls, though it kept licensing restrictions on seven key minerals used in U.S. manufacturing.

How To Know When It’s the Top

October 31, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

Things You Cannot Unsee

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Socialism Whacked

October 30, 2025 • Bill Bonner

This One Goes To Twelve

October 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

On Air Force One, Trump tried to outdo the 80s cult classic mockumentary Spinal Tap, suggesting on the scale of one to the talks were a “12.”

On a practical level, Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl production would be halved — from 20% to 10% — bringing the overall rate to 47% from 57%.

China, in turn, agreed to a one-year suspension of some rare-earth export controls, though it kept licensing restrictions on seven key minerals used in U.S. manufacturing.