In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.
There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:
Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)
If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.
With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.
~ Addison
P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.
Sign up here if you haven’t become a Fraternity member yet to get our insights.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
