1998, Redux

October 31, 2025 • 54 second read

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:

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Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)

If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.

With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Ripple Effect

1998, Redux

Addison Wiggin

October 31, 2025 • 54 second read

AI Boom dotcom boom

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:

Turn Your Images On

Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)

If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.

With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Beware The Surface Calm

March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…

America Catches a Bid

March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

Igniting Minneapolis

March 5, 2026 • John Robb

Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).

China, Chokepoints and Gold

March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In normal times, the Chinese operate a quota system for refined product exports; this week, the throttle tightened. And even though they are Asia’s third-largest exporters of “energy,” the country still draws close to half its imported crude from the Gulf, including nearly all Iranian shipments.