1998, Redux

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:

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Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)

If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.

With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998:

Turn Your Images On

Stocks continue to rally like the middle stage of the dotcom boom. (Source: Mark_ungewitter via X)

If this trend continues, stocks are likely to peak late next year, possibly form a double top – then give back the bulk of their gains.

With today’s high valuations in stocks already, it may be a good time to move to more defensive and better-valued stocks.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with John Robb provided a rich discussion on AI, new defense technologies, and an overall picture of what the next few years could look like.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Progressives learned long ago that you don’t have to win an argument if you can simply redefine the words.

Regardless of what’s happening in stocks, the same long bond can be a good buy for a retiree and an expensive obligation for everyone else.

The same uncertainty driving investors out of speculative assets is sending them toward dollars and Treasury securities.

Behind the drama unfolding at Nvidia, Big Tech is borrowing to keep the AI buildout chugging along just as the Treasury needs trillions.

Progressives learned long ago that you don’t have to win an argument if you can simply redefine the words.

Regardless of what’s happening in stocks, the same long bond can be a good buy for a retiree and an expensive obligation for everyone else.

The same uncertainty driving investors out of speculative assets is sending them toward dollars and Treasury securities.

Behind the drama unfolding at Nvidia, Big Tech is borrowing to keep the AI buildout chugging along just as the Treasury needs trillions.