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Daily Missive

Whither The World’s Reserve Currency

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 29, 2024 • 5 minute, 8 second read


Whither The World’s Reserve Currency

“The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.”

– Murray Rothbard


August 29, 2024 – We’ll be brief today. 

In overnight trading on Tuesday, gold popped to another new all-time high of $2,562. This morning, it made another attempt, topping out in early trading at $2,558. 

We’ve been watching the price of gold with keen interest for several years. The main drivers have been consistent since gold settled above $2,000 in late 2020 during pandemic fear buying.

Rising interest rates should have been bad for the gold price, but they weren’t. Geopolitical tensions have been heightened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, exacerbated by the Oct. 7, 2023 commencement of a hot war between Israel and Hamas. Still…

As early as December 2023, Louis-Vincent Gave, a macro analyst we’ve been following since the early days of The Daily Reckoning, speculated that above central bank buying of gold, the real driver of demand comes from wealthy consumers in emerging markets. Per Bloomberg:

On a quick romp across the big emerging markets, Gave concludes the following: India is a big buyer of gold, and this will probably continue as domestic wealth grows, despite competition from domestic stocks.

The “de-dollarization” argument then starts to come into play. China may be keen to buy gold as a diversifier away from U.S. government debt, for example. It’s a similar — though even more marked — story for Russia. Citizens of both countries may also see gold as one of the better ways to store wealth outside of a financial system that they don’t necessarily trust.

In a similar vein, Gave also notes that Saudi Arabia signed a renminbi “swap line” with the Chinese central bank. If the Middle East is edging away from the U.S. dollar, then that, as Gave puts it, makes “currency uncertainty” a live issue for investors in the region, which in turn is another tailwind for gold.

This week’s headlines announcing increased military action in the West Bank are further stoking concerns of a wider war in the Middle East.

And now, with the Fed’s pivot toward lower interest rates clearly on the table in September, the continued rally in gold’s price seems more evidently dependent on the price of the U.S. Dollar globally than on “wealthy emerging market” buyers … or even purchases from central banks in Russia, India and China. 

Since the dollar and its valuation is a funny thing indeed, we can’t help but share the thoughts of our quirky friend, financial writer and comedian Dominic Frisby. 

Dominic is specifically looking at where the dollar index is likely to go… but for our purposes, its impact on gold is even more interesting. Enjoy ~~ Addison

The Most Important Price In the World 

 

Dominic Frisby, The Flying Frisby

Now we look at what must be the most important price in the world: that is the price of the global reserve currency, the US dollar.

Does it go up or down from here?

There is probably no more important question in global finance to know the answer to.

If the dollar is falling, it usually signals boom times for assets: equities and commodities especially. The US prints and spends, and then exports the inflation. Money gets loose and the party rocks.

But when the dollar is strong, everyone gets the jitters.

Today the US dollar is seriously oversold. Meaning, it should go up from here.

Conversely, the inverse trade—gold—is at all-time highs. US equity markets are flirting with all-time highs, while the euro and the yen, even the pound, have been soaring.

Let’s start with US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against the currencies of the US’s main trading partners’, over the past year.

Look at the relative strength index (RSI). The RSI is an indicator designed to measure an asset’s momentum, which is both the speed and size of price changes. Technical traders include the RSI when trying to determine if an asset is overbought or oversold. 

The following is a chart measuring the RSI for the US dollar over the past two years:

The RSI has gone beneath 30 for the first time in over a year. You would typically expect a reversal from these levels.

Look at the 3-month rally the dollar had starting in July 2023, the last time it was this oversold, it was quite something.

In fact, based on this, I have taken a small short position in cable, betting that the dollar will rise against the pound.

Last week, Fed Chief Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve is now ready to start cutting rates, which should be bearish for the dollar. However, oversold is oversold.

“The time has come for policy to adjust.” he said. “My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

The market is somewhat divided as to whether that cut will be 0.25% or 0.5%, but lower rates go. The inflation—by their definition—monster has been tamed.

“The 2-year yield has fallen to 3.9% compared to base rates at 5.5%, which is the bond market’s way of pricing in future rate cuts,” says Charlie Morris at Bytree. 

“The difference, at -1.6%, means that a full rate-cutting cycle lies ahead. Indeed, this reading is more pronounced than seen in 2001 and 2008, implying the cuts could come thick and fast.” 

Both 2001 and 2008 were major turning points in the US dollar. And this time around will likely be a good sign for the price of gold. ~~ Dominic Frisby, The Flying Frisby

 

So it goes, 

Addison Wiggin, 

Grey Swan

 

P.S. Since 1985, the dollar has declined with the Republicans — Reagan, Bush x2 and Trump — and rallied with the Democrats — Clinton, Obama, and Biden.

Who wins in November has a big impact on the price. But there are several months to go till November. And with the “vibe” election in full swing — a lot can change in just a few weeks. And we expect it will. 

P.S. Please send any additional questions you may have about gold and bitcoin, or any comments you have on rights, to addison@greyswanfraternity.com. 

 


George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.

The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.

Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.

George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem
Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.

While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.

They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.

Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy
Another Day, Another Circular AI Investment

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Liquidity is flowing again, but conviction isn’t. U.S. M2 money supply has been expanding for months, even before the recent interest rate cut.

Currently, it’s up 4.8% year over year. That’s the fastest pace since 2022. That’s just enough to drive stocks higher in the short-term. Even algorithms and systematic funds will respond mechanically and buy stocks when they see liquidity rise. It’s the most fundamental indicator.

The volatility index (VIX)’s rise to 16.6, up over 2% this week, shows that big money is hedging, even as the market indices rise. After all, with signs of a slowing economy – and a government shut down – it’s hardly business as usual.

Another Day, Another Circular AI Investment
The Ghost of Bastiat

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By then the receipts on my desk had arranged themselves into a sort of chorus. I heard, faintly, another refrain—one from Kentucky. In the first days of the shutdown, Senator Rand Paul stood alone among Republicans and voted against his party’s stopgap, telling interviewers that the numbers “don’t add up” and that he would not sign on to another year that piles $2 trillion onto the debt.

That, I realized, is what the tariff story shares with the broader budget theater: the habit of calling a tax something else, of shifting burdens into the fog and then celebrating the silhouette as victory. Even the vote tally made the point: he was the only Republican “no,” a lonely arithmetic lesson in a crowded room.

The Ghost of Bastiat