Historically, when the Fed has cut into inflation above 3%, one of two outcomes tends to follow:
A brief reprieve, followed by a larger inflation wave (see: 1970s).
A crisis born from cheap money rather than expensive money (see: housing in the 2000s).
We are heading into another round of cuts with:
• A still-bloated balance sheet
• A new digital plumbing that auto-funds the Treasury
• Hard-asset markets flashing warning lights
Paul Tudor Jones summed it up in one dry quip: interest expense is now one of Washington’s largest bills; commodities are “ridiculously under-owned”; and “all roads lead to inflation.”
The Fed’s flip from QT to easing doesn’t end this inflation episode. It likely begins its next season.