Trump Victory Winners and Losers

November 6, 2024 • 3 minute, 39 second read

James West, The Midas Letter

Not a minute to lose.

So many are surprised by Trump’s win by a significant margin, though in the financial world, where all that matters is how much tax the government is going to take, it was expected. While it remains to be seen how much of Project2025 actually makes it into policy, there are opportunities that cannot go overlooked for the financially agile.

First, and maybe most obviously, I think $DJT and $TSLA are obvious wins. Both are up significantly in the pre-market.

With the implied reduction in tax revenue for the US government, gold and silver should see strong buy-side interest as the reduced income means more bond issuances to cover interest payments.

Obviously crypto is a big winner, with Trump being touted as the “first Bitcoin president.” Currently, the stuffing is getting knocked out of the precious metals sector as a result of the crypto segment eating gold and silver’s lunch.

But here’s the question: if the argument against gold being part of the US dollar reserve asset backing is that there’s just not enough of it, how does that square with Bitcoin’s maximum issuance of 21 million bitcoins?

The immediate kneejerk market response of gold going lower while $BTC surges is likely going to be short-lived, because Bitcoin will quickly price itself out of the market with no ability to expand its volume beyond that 21 million. Though let us not dismiss the idea that the Bitcoin mandarins could be coerced into some sort of modification to accommodate Trump’s ambition for it.

There is likely going to be a sharp increase in drill permitting in the oil and gas sector, which will no doubt benefit some publicly traded names with US domestic prospective holdings. Drillers, too, should be the beneficiaries of Trump’s victory.

When Trump was last in office, here is a list of ChatGPT-generated policy initiatives that were deemed favourable to business and industry:

Tax Reforms: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This significant cut increased after-tax profits for many companies, enabling them to invest more in expansion, hiring, and research and development.
Deregulation: The previous administration focused on rolling back regulations across various industries, including environmental protections and financial oversight. This reduction in regulatory burdens lowered compliance costs and gave businesses greater operational flexibility.
Trade Policies: Emphasizing “America First,” tariffs were imposed on certain imported goods to protect domestic industries. While this benefited some manufacturers by reducing foreign competition, it also led to increased costs for businesses reliant on imported materials.
Energy Sector Support: Policies favored the expansion of fossil fuel industries by opening up federal lands for drilling and reducing restrictions on coal and oil production. Energy companies benefited from increased opportunities and reduced regulatory hurdles.
Infrastructure Initiatives: Proposals for large-scale infrastructure projects aimed to modernize roads, bridges, and airports. Such initiatives could create jobs and boost industries related to construction, engineering, and manufacturing.
Healthcare Policy Changes: Efforts to modify or repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act were intended to reduce healthcare costs for businesses. Changes could lead to more customizable health plans and potentially lower premiums for employers.
Immigration Policies: Stricter immigration controls were designed to protect domestic labor markets. For businesses, this could result in a tighter labor supply, impacting industries that rely on immigrant workers.
Investment Incentives: Tax incentives and opportunity zones were established to encourage investment in underdeveloped areas, stimulating economic growth and offering new markets for businesses.

Trump and the Project 2025 Agenda

The biggest question we now have to face is how much of the Project2025 Agenda is actually going to be implemented?

In a worst case scenario for business and private citizens alike is the implementation of the fundamentalist Christian authoritarian theocracy expressed in the pages of the Project2025 manifesto.

And to what extent is the “this is the last time you’ll need to vote” statements that were part of his early campaign going to manifest?

The American people might yet be the biggest losers of the electoral outcome if a militarily enforced dictatorship is what is planned for America. The rest of the world will be similarly influenced toward non-democratic governance, or at the very least, authoritarian theocratic elements in the political apparatus of many countries will feel emboldened and empowered. ~~James West, The Midas Letter

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

September 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As time unfolds, the US federal government’s tentacles burrow ever-deeper into the economy. In the 2008 crisis, banks deemed “too big to fail” received a government bailout. The following year, automobile firms GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. When the Treasury exited GM in 2013, taxpayers were left with a loss of more than $10 billion. Ten years later, the federal government forbade Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, in a merger they both desired. Instead, the government settled for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel alongside its own direct ownership of the firm via a “golden share.” Just this past week, the US federal government announced its 10 percent stake in Intel, the struggling US semiconductor giant. On top of the $7 billion Intel had already received from the 2024 CHIPS Act, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Intel “America’s champion semiconductor company.”

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

When the Ballast Shifts

September 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

At 2 p.m. today, the Fed will release its rate decision and quarterly projections. Most expect a 25-basis-point cut.

Bond traders are betting more will come before the year’s end. At 2:30 p.m., Jerome Powell will face the press, and investors will parse every word for hints of further easing.

Trump is appealing to the Supreme Court to fire Governor Lisa Cook, after a lower court ruled she could stay while her lawsuit proceeds.

If successful, he’ll gain another seat to fill — tightening his grip on the Fed.

“Officials are expected to lower rates today in an attempt to backstop a shaky U.S. labor market,” Bloomberg reported this morning, “after unrelenting pressure from the president for a ‘big cut.’”

It’s Still Early Days for Gold

September 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With gold prices continuing to push higher – and with central bankers buying hand over fist – gold miners should continue to see expanding profits.

That’s in sharp contrast to the rest of the market, where any potential slowdown in AI could cause a break lower.

The Fed, bending to political winds, is likely to join its global counterparts in cutting interest rates today. There’s more yet to the story for gold and the gold miners – as we forecast a year ago.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our fiscal reality is clearly unsustainable. With the passage of the “Big Beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, Congress has already given itself permission to grow the national debt to $41 trillion. Interest payments on the national debt are already the second-most-expensive item on the federal budget, behind only Social Security (and ahead of defense spending). As the national debt continues to grow, debt service will become our number one spending obligation. History suggests it’s only a matter of time until we hit that limit and, unless things change, once again raise the debt ceiling. This cannot continue indefinitely.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?