Trump Victory Winners and Losers

James West, The Midas Letter

Not a minute to lose.

So many are surprised by Trump’s win by a significant margin, though in the financial world, where all that matters is how much tax the government is going to take, it was expected. While it remains to be seen how much of Project2025 actually makes it into policy, there are opportunities that cannot go overlooked for the financially agile.

First, and maybe most obviously, I think $DJT and $TSLA are obvious wins. Both are up significantly in the pre-market.

With the implied reduction in tax revenue for the US government, gold and silver should see strong buy-side interest as the reduced income means more bond issuances to cover interest payments.

Obviously crypto is a big winner, with Trump being touted as the “first Bitcoin president.” Currently, the stuffing is getting knocked out of the precious metals sector as a result of the crypto segment eating gold and silver’s lunch.

But here’s the question: if the argument against gold being part of the US dollar reserve asset backing is that there’s just not enough of it, how does that square with Bitcoin’s maximum issuance of 21 million bitcoins?

The immediate kneejerk market response of gold going lower while $BTC surges is likely going to be short-lived, because Bitcoin will quickly price itself out of the market with no ability to expand its volume beyond that 21 million. Though let us not dismiss the idea that the Bitcoin mandarins could be coerced into some sort of modification to accommodate Trump’s ambition for it.

There is likely going to be a sharp increase in drill permitting in the oil and gas sector, which will no doubt benefit some publicly traded names with US domestic prospective holdings. Drillers, too, should be the beneficiaries of Trump’s victory.

When Trump was last in office, here is a list of ChatGPT-generated policy initiatives that were deemed favourable to business and industry:

Tax Reforms: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This significant cut increased after-tax profits for many companies, enabling them to invest more in expansion, hiring, and research and development.
Deregulation: The previous administration focused on rolling back regulations across various industries, including environmental protections and financial oversight. This reduction in regulatory burdens lowered compliance costs and gave businesses greater operational flexibility.
Trade Policies: Emphasizing “America First,” tariffs were imposed on certain imported goods to protect domestic industries. While this benefited some manufacturers by reducing foreign competition, it also led to increased costs for businesses reliant on imported materials.
Energy Sector Support: Policies favored the expansion of fossil fuel industries by opening up federal lands for drilling and reducing restrictions on coal and oil production. Energy companies benefited from increased opportunities and reduced regulatory hurdles.
Infrastructure Initiatives: Proposals for large-scale infrastructure projects aimed to modernize roads, bridges, and airports. Such initiatives could create jobs and boost industries related to construction, engineering, and manufacturing.
Healthcare Policy Changes: Efforts to modify or repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act were intended to reduce healthcare costs for businesses. Changes could lead to more customizable health plans and potentially lower premiums for employers.
Immigration Policies: Stricter immigration controls were designed to protect domestic labor markets. For businesses, this could result in a tighter labor supply, impacting industries that rely on immigrant workers.
Investment Incentives: Tax incentives and opportunity zones were established to encourage investment in underdeveloped areas, stimulating economic growth and offering new markets for businesses.

Trump and the Project 2025 Agenda

The biggest question we now have to face is how much of the Project2025 Agenda is actually going to be implemented?

In a worst case scenario for business and private citizens alike is the implementation of the fundamentalist Christian authoritarian theocracy expressed in the pages of the Project2025 manifesto.

And to what extent is the “this is the last time you’ll need to vote” statements that were part of his early campaign going to manifest?

The American people might yet be the biggest losers of the electoral outcome if a militarily enforced dictatorship is what is planned for America. The rest of the world will be similarly influenced toward non-democratic governance, or at the very least, authoritarian theocratic elements in the political apparatus of many countries will feel emboldened and empowered. ~~James West, The Midas Letter

James West, The Midas Letter

Not a minute to lose.

First, and maybe most obviously, I think $DJT and $TSLA are obvious wins. Both are up significantly in the pre-market.

With the implied reduction in tax revenue for the US government, gold and silver should see strong buy-side interest as the reduced income means more bond issuances to cover interest payments.

When Trump was last in office, here is a list of ChatGPT-generated policy initiatives that were deemed favourable to business and industry:

Tax Reforms: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This significant cut increased after-tax profits for many companies, enabling them to invest more in expansion, hiring, and research and development.
Deregulation: The previous administration focused on rolling back regulations across various industries, including environmental protections and financial oversight. This reduction in regulatory burdens lowered compliance costs and gave businesses greater operational flexibility.
Trade Policies: Emphasizing “America First,” tariffs were imposed on certain imported goods to protect domestic industries. While this benefited some manufacturers by reducing foreign competition, it also led to increased costs for businesses reliant on imported materials.
Energy Sector Support: Policies favored the expansion of fossil fuel industries by opening up federal lands for drilling and reducing restrictions on coal and oil production. Energy companies benefited from increased opportunities and reduced regulatory hurdles.
Infrastructure Initiatives: Proposals for large-scale infrastructure projects aimed to modernize roads, bridges, and airports. Such initiatives could create jobs and boost industries related to construction, engineering, and manufacturing.
Healthcare Policy Changes: Efforts to modify or repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act were intended to reduce healthcare costs for businesses. Changes could lead to more customizable health plans and potentially lower premiums for employers.
Immigration Policies: Stricter immigration controls were designed to protect domestic labor markets. For businesses, this could result in a tighter labor supply, impacting industries that rely on immigrant workers.
Investment Incentives: Tax incentives and opportunity zones were established to encourage investment in underdeveloped areas, stimulating economic growth and offering new markets for businesses.

Trump and the Project 2025 Agenda

The biggest question we now have to face is how much of the Project2025 Agenda is actually going to be implemented?

In a worst case scenario for business and private citizens alike is the implementation of the fundamentalist Christian authoritarian theocracy expressed in the pages of the Project2025 manifesto.

And to what extent is the “this is the last time you’ll need to vote” statements that were part of his early campaign going to manifest?

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.