These Two Things Don’t Go Together

John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The election is over, and the result is pretty close to a best-case scenario. The victory margin is big enough to head off the expected civil unrest, giving us a more-or-less peaceful transfer of power. And if Trump and his team keep their promises, they’ll quickly address the existential threats of global war and mass illegal immigration, while protecting free speech.

There is, in short, reason for optimism — or at least relief — on several fronts.

Now for the bad news. This morning the financial markets responded to the election in two completely incompatible ways. First, traders bid up stocks:

Dow soars 1,300 points to a record, Russell 2000 jumps 4% as Trump defeats Harris: Live updates

(CNBC) – Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. Republican former president Donald Trump closed in on a new term in the White House early November 6, 2024, just needing a handful of electoral votes to defeat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, with major benchmarks hitting record highs, as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,319 points to a record high, or around 3%. The last time the blue-chip Dow jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day was in November 2022. The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high, popping 2.1%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4% to a record of its own.

Investments seen as beneficiaries under a Trump presidency erupted as the former president appeared set to claim victory. Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a prominent backer of Trump, saw shares surge 13%. Bank shares got a boost with JPMorgan Chase climbing 10% and Wells Fargo jumping 13%.

The small cap benchmark Russell 2000 surged 4.7%. Small companies, which are more domestic-oriented and cyclical, are believed to enjoy outsized benefits from Trump’s tax cuts and protectionist policies.

“For now, investor sentiment is pro-growth, pro-deregulation, and pro-markets, as seen in the overnight market action,” David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group. “There is also an assumption that M&A activity will pickup and that more tax cuts are coming or the existing ones will be extended. This creates a strong backdrop for stocks.”

At the same time, interest rates spiked:

Longer-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Going to further crush demand for existing homes. Bondholders feel the pain.

(Wolf Street) – Longer-term Treasury yields spiked this morning, on top of the surge since the September rate cut. Spiking yields means plunging prices, and it has been a bloodbath for bondholders.

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 20 basis points this morning, to 4.46% at the moment, the highest since June 10. Since the Fed’s September 18 rate cut, the 10-year yield has shot up by 81 basis points. 5% here we come?

Mortgage rates too. They roughly parallel the 10-year yield, and they spiked today 7.13%, according to the daily measure from Mortgage News Daily.

Mortgage applications through the latest reporting week, which doesn’t capture the last two days, already dropped further from the frozen levels before, pushing down further the demand for existing homes, which is on track to plunge to the lowest levels since 1995 this year.

For the housing industry, and for home sellers, this U-turn was a painful slap in the face. At this pace, the yield curve will enter the normal range soon – but in the opposite way of what the real estate industry had hoped. It had hoped that the Fed would cause short-term yields to plunge to super-low levels in no time, which would drag down longer-term yields, and mortgage rates would follow.

But mortgage rates had already plunged from nearly 8% in November last year to 6.1% by mid-September this year, without any rate cuts, on just a wing and a prayer, thereby pricing in all kinds rate cuts and whatnot. And since the rate cut, much of the wing-and-a-prayer plunge in longer-term yields has reversed, that’s all that has really happened.

The real estate industry was expecting about 5.x% mortgages by about right now, and they were already close in mid-September with 6.1% mortgages, and some were talking about 4.x% mortgages just in time for spring selling season, and today they’re looking at 7.13% mortgages.

Which Trend Wins?

If stocks and interest rates can’t both rise in the long run, which trend is right and which is wrong? This chart contains the probable answer:

We’re so deeply in debt that rising interest rates have become intolerable. So if the Fed doesn’t intervene, the markets will. ~~John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

There is, in short, reason for optimism — or at least relief — on several fronts.

Now for the bad news. This morning the financial markets responded to the election in two completely incompatible ways. First, traders bid up stocks:

Dow soars 1,300 points to a record, Russell 2000 jumps 4% as Trump defeats Harris: Live updates

Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, with major benchmarks hitting record highs, as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

At the same time, interest rates spiked:

Longer-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Going to further crush demand for existing homes. Bondholders feel the pain.

Mortgage rates too. They roughly parallel the 10-year yield, and they spiked today 7.13%, according to the daily measure from Mortgage News Daily.

Which Trend Wins?

If stocks and interest rates can’t both rise in the long run, which trend is right and which is wrong? This chart contains the probable answer:

We’re so deeply in debt that rising interest rates have become intolerable. So if the Fed doesn’t intervene, the markets will. ~~John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies is that every government around the world has high debt-to-GDP ratios. It means they are going to print more currency. It means there is a need for alternative currency. In the past, this alternative currency was gold.

Gold is not very portable. It’s a good store of value. It’s not as great of a store of value as BTC in terms of actually storing it. BTC, you can store it on a hard drive or at Coinbase. Gold, if you have bars you have to keep them in a bank or you have to dig a hole in your backyard. And you can’t send gold around the world as easily as you can send BTC.

I still think this rally has legs. If you go back to where the breakout happened, we were really in November of 2024 that was the beginning of this bull market in my mind because that was the first time we hit an all-time high in a couple years. Then we rallied. We pulled back. We tested that level again.

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

The telegraph made news global and opened up a world of investment opportunities. Radio, and then television, ignited a new wave of prosperity for investors. And the internet made communication instant, creating fortunes for those who saw what was coming.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

If you have Coinbase building the payment rails, Circle handling settlement and projects like Worldcoin and Particle Network solving for identity and wallets — do you really need a bank to validate transactions and keep track of who owns what?

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.