The Great Taking

The “Donroe Doctrine,” the White House is calling… because Trump hasn’t yet stamped his name on every facet of U.S. political life.

America in the Americas. China in East Asia. Russia, where Russia still can.

There is a certain gangster logic to it. Not the UN Charter. Not the Magna Carta. More Godfather than Geneva.

Markets, predictably, shrugged.

Oil stocks rallied. Defense stocks jumped. Consultants booked flights to the oil fields near Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt.

Interest rates are coming down, emboldening consumers to take on more debt.

The latest data highlights a central feature of the real economy. Americans no longer manage savings and income but credit cards, HELOCs, and mortgages in an effort to keep up appearances.

Day-to-day expenses, health insurance, housing, car payments and tuition will continue to plague Americans throughout the year ahead of going to the polls in November.

Roughly 70–80% of global silver supply comes as a byproduct of mining other metals—copper, lead, zinc, gold. This means that even if silver prices doubled tomorrow, production wouldn’t automatically increase unless mining of those other metals ramped up too. You can’t just “decide” to mine more silver.

Layer China’s export controls on top of all that, and you’re looking at a supply profile that’s unusually tight—and unusually vulnerable.

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures  levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”