The Great Game

“Men who are both right and can sit tight are uncommon.”

–Jesse Livermore

Gold’s value continues to exceed its price…

April 16, 2025 — ‘I resemble that remark.’

–Curly Howard

Like internet advertising, the tariff news keeps coming. Quartz:

A group of Wedbush analysts led by Dan Ives sent a note Tuesday…“This auto tariff (in its current form) will send the auto industry into upside down mode and raise the average price of cars between $5k on the low end and $10k to $15k on the high end.”

The Daily Mail:

Xia Baolong, a top Chinese official…’Let those peasants in the United States wail in front of the 5,000 years of Chinese civilization,’ Xia, the director of China’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office under the State Council, said in a televised speech today.

But what are we watching? Is it a 21st century version of the Great Game…in which the world’s most powerful nations make moves and counter-moves…one trying to protect its empire…the other trying to save face? The Raw Story:

Trade war set to ‘get really ugly’ as ‘Xi won’t back down’: Ex-Trump official

As the White House claims they have the ‘upper hand’ in the China trade war, a new POLITICO report is claiming otherwise…

According to the outlet, Trump’s exceptions are “indicative of the relatively weak position of the administration.”

They also noted a second problem with the tariffs: “The U.S. is imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to move manufacturing back to the U.S., but those tariffs are particularly painful for U.S. manufacturers because they are currently so dependent on Chinese parts.”

In retrospect, the 19th century ‘Great Game’ between Russia and England was a waste of time, money, and lives. Russia believed it was protecting the southern Caucasus from further English colonization. England thought it was protecting India. Neither was a realistic threat.

So maybe this trade spat is not so important, either. Maybe it’s just an entertaining farce…’Trade Stooges’…nyuk…nyuk…nyuk… in which the lead characters whack each other for the benefit of the audience…but nobody actually gets hurt?

They punch. They poke. But no hard feelings!

AP is reporting that Donald Trump, for all his vaudeville jabs, flip flops more than a pair of beach sandals:

Trump considers pausing his auto tariffs as the world economy endures whiplash

“I’m looking at something to help some of the car companies with it,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office. The Republican president said automakers needed time to relocate production from Canada, Mexico and other places, “And they need a little bit of time because they’re going to make them here, but they need a little bit of time. So I’m talking about things like that.”

In a non-stooge comedy, a leader might want to talk “about things like that” before threatening billions in trade…thousands of jobs…and millions of family budgets.

Besides, there is no way the auto companies are going to relocate production to the US in just a few months. And maybe never. The New York Post:

Honda on Tuesday said it has no plans to move car production from Canada and Mexico to the US, following a report that the Japan auto giant was considering shifting some operations to avoid potentially devastating tariffs.

So, what’s this really about? This is just show business, right?

Maybe not.

Maybe more like ‘The Guns of August’…in which the leading powers blunder into a catastrophic war, with no real cause…no practical strategy…and with nothing really at stake. Once underway, there’s no acceptable outcome…except to win…at any cost. Irish Star:

China orders all airlines to stop taking deliveries from Boeing as trade war explodes

As the trade war with the US intensifies, China has halted deliveries from Boeing…In response, Chinese officials have instructed airlines to cease accepting deliveries from Boeing and to stop purchasing aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies.

And this from the newswires:

China has sent naval vessels to the wider Western Pacific Ocean via waterways near Japan after a United States aircraft carrier reached the contested region, along with an advanced warship. The Japanese military on Monday announced that three Chinese naval ships had sailed in the waters southwest of Japan on Friday. They were the Type 052C destroyer CNS Changchun, the Type 054A frigate CNS Yangzhou and the Type 903 replenishment ship CNS Qiandaohu.

The Stooges?

The Great Game?

WWI?

Remember how movie theaters used to offer a ‘double feature?’ This looks like a triple feature to us!

Get your popcorn…and your gold…now.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
Bonner Private Research & Grey Swan

P.S. from Addison: We hate to sound like a broken record on gold, but it’s clear that the metal has strong momentum behind it. Our latest research on gold suggests there’s still room to go – and plenty of ways to invest in gold, including investments in gold mining stocks, which have become a standout sector in today’s fearful markets.

P.P.S: And if you’re a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can join us for a live discussion tomorrow, Thursday, April 17, 2025, at 11 a.m. ET.

We’ll be analyzing central bank buying of gold, the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency amid the Trump tariff regime… and how crypto fits into the mix.

You can sign up here to become a member.

Grey Swan Live!
Thursday, April 17, 2025
11:00 a.m. ET

Add your thoughts to the mix here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“Men who are both right and can sit tight are uncommon.”

–Jesse Livermore

Gold’s value continues to exceed its price…

April 16, 2025 — ‘I resemble that remark.’

–Curly Howard

Like internet advertising, the tariff news keeps coming. Quartz:

A group of Wedbush analysts led by Dan Ives sent a note Tuesday…“This auto tariff (in its current form) will send the auto industry into upside down mode and raise the average price of cars between $5k on the low end and $10k to $15k on the high end.”

The Daily Mail:

Xia Baolong, a top Chinese official…’Let those peasants in the United States wail in front of the 5,000 years of Chinese civilization,’ Xia, the director of China’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office under the State Council, said in a televised speech today.

Trade war set to ‘get really ugly’ as ‘Xi won’t back down’: Ex-Trump official

As the White House claims they have the ‘upper hand’ in the China trade war, a new POLITICO report is claiming otherwise…

According to the outlet, Trump’s exceptions are “indicative of the relatively weak position of the administration.”

They also noted a second problem with the tariffs: “The U.S. is imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to move manufacturing back to the U.S., but those tariffs are particularly painful for U.S. manufacturers because they are currently so dependent on Chinese parts.”

They punch. They poke. But no hard feelings!

AP is reporting that Donald Trump, for all his vaudeville jabs, flip flops more than a pair of beach sandals:

Trump considers pausing his auto tariffs as the world economy endures whiplash

“I’m looking at something to help some of the car companies with it,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office. The Republican president said automakers needed time to relocate production from Canada, Mexico and other places, “And they need a little bit of time because they’re going to make them here, but they need a little bit of time. So I’m talking about things like that.”

In a non-stooge comedy, a leader might want to talk “about things like that” before threatening billions in trade…thousands of jobs…and millions of family budgets.

Besides, there is no way the auto companies are going to relocate production to the US in just a few months. And maybe never. The New York Post:

Honda on Tuesday said it has no plans to move car production from Canada and Mexico to the US, following a report that the Japan auto giant was considering shifting some operations to avoid potentially devastating tariffs.

So, what’s this really about? This is just show business, right?

Maybe not.

China orders all airlines to stop taking deliveries from Boeing as trade war explodes

As the trade war with the US intensifies, China has halted deliveries from Boeing…In response, Chinese officials have instructed airlines to cease accepting deliveries from Boeing and to stop purchasing aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies.

And this from the newswires:

China has sent naval vessels to the wider Western Pacific Ocean via waterways near Japan after a United States aircraft carrier reached the contested region, along with an advanced warship. The Japanese military on Monday announced that three Chinese naval ships had sailed in the waters southwest of Japan on Friday. They were the Type 052C destroyer CNS Changchun, the Type 054A frigate CNS Yangzhou and the Type 903 replenishment ship CNS Qiandaohu.

The Stooges?

The Great Game?

WWI?

Remember how movie theaters used to offer a ‘double feature?’ This looks like a triple feature to us!

Get your popcorn…and your gold…now.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
Bonner Private Research & Grey Swan

P.P.S: And if you’re a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can join us for a live discussion tomorrow, Thursday, April 17, 2025, at 11 a.m. ET.

We’ll be analyzing central bank buying of gold, the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency amid the Trump tariff regime… and how crypto fits into the mix.

You can sign up here to become a member.

Grey Swan Live!
Thursday, April 17, 2025
11:00 a.m. ET

Add your thoughts to the mix here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.