Spear Phishing, Drone War and The Election

“War is the continuation of politics by other means.”

–Carl von Clausewitz

We were preparing to release our latest interview with Grey Swan contributor John Robb, when a few news items crossed the transom.

Over the weekend, the Trump campaign announced that “foreign sources hostile to the United States” had accessed some private communications and documents from its network using AI modules.

A Microsoft report corroborated, announcing hacker groups connected with the Iranian government “sent a ‘spear phishing’ email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign.” The report continues:

They’ve laid the groundwork for influence campaigns on trending election-related topics and begun to activate these campaigns in an apparent effort to stir up controversy or sway voters—especially in swing states. [And] launched operations that Microsoft assesses are designed to gain intelligence on political campaigns and help enable them to influence the elections in the future.

Microsoft added that an Iranian group has been launching covert news sites targeting US voter groups on opposing ends of the political spectrum:

One of the sites, called Nio Thinker, caters to left-leaning audiences and insults former president Donald Trump, calling him an “opioid-pilled elephant in the MAGA china shop” and a “raving mad litigiosaur.”

Another, called Savannah Time, claims to be a “trusted source for conservative news in the vibrant city of Savannah” and focuses on topics including LGBTQ+ issues and gender reassignment. The evidence we found suggests the sites are using AI-enabled services to plagiarize at least some of their content from US publications.

The cynic presumes the worst.

In our “wag the dog” scenario, we immediately suspected the “news” had been pounced on by the Trump campaign because the “honeymoon” period of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz trying to rally the Democratic base was stealing headlines from their own post-assassination-attempt, Republican National Convention, and JD Vance announcement buzz.

Either way, another news report from the Associated Press indicates, “U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a guided missile submarine to the Middle East and is telling the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to sail more quickly to the area, the Defense Department said Sunday.”

As we track government spending, the national debt cresting $35 trillion, and the real motives for conflict in Ukraine, Israel and all across the Middle East, the motives for various details get murky.

“We’re in a networked world,” we’ve only recently noted to Mr. Robb. “Can the U.S. even win a forever war? Or is it just perpetually expensive.”

His response was not very encouraging. John Robb:

The US has been trying to manage the global situation for quite a while and has been doing a relatively bad job of it.

Top-line governments and nation-building stuff tend to backfire and haven’t yielded the results that we wanted. But now we see something relatively more dangerous. We’re already on an almost inevitable course towards conflict with China and Russia and most of Asia.

During the buildup, China has been producing a lot of drones.

They have the capacity to produce millions per month. And right out of the starting gates and they could use those drones to supply groups like the Houthis that are hard to attack because they are relatively remote.

Yet, the Houthis can use those drones or any group like that could use those drones to erect aerial denial blockades of sea air and land upwards of 500 to a thousand miles distant from their location.

Seems like a minor detail, but moving a submarine into the Mediterranean capable of launching long-range cruise missiles is an escalation – during a critical election already besieged with AI-induced “misinformation”… well, it’s caught our attention.

We’ll reveal more of our wide-ranging discussion with John tomorrow. His insights into “netwar” are alarming, at best.

So it goes,

Addison Wiggin,

Grey Swan

P.S. While watching JD Vance speak on C.B.S.’ Face the Nation this weekend, we came up with this suggestion for the Republican strategists: One up Harris and Walz by having Trump drop out of the race and grab all the headlines during the Democratic National Convention.

Trump has already remade the RNC in his image. They’d just need to throw in a new VP candidate and a couple aggressive debates. Vance is far more articulate about policy than either Trump or Harris.

Heh. Thoughts? Send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“War is the continuation of politics by other means.”

–Carl von Clausewitz

We were preparing to release our latest interview with Grey Swan contributor John Robb, when a few news items crossed the transom.

Over the weekend, the Trump campaign announced that “foreign sources hostile to the United States” had accessed some private communications and documents from its network using AI modules.

They’ve laid the groundwork for influence campaigns on trending election-related topics and begun to activate these campaigns in an apparent effort to stir up controversy or sway voters—especially in swing states. [And] launched operations that Microsoft assesses are designed to gain intelligence on political campaigns and help enable them to influence the elections in the future.

Microsoft added that an Iranian group has been launching covert news sites targeting US voter groups on opposing ends of the political spectrum:

The cynic presumes the worst.

“We’re in a networked world,” we’ve only recently noted to Mr. Robb. “Can the U.S. even win a forever war? Or is it just perpetually expensive.”

His response was not very encouraging. John Robb:

The US has been trying to manage the global situation for quite a while and has been doing a relatively bad job of it.

Top-line governments and nation-building stuff tend to backfire and haven’t yielded the results that we wanted. But now we see something relatively more dangerous. We’re already on an almost inevitable course towards conflict with China and Russia and most of Asia.

During the buildup, China has been producing a lot of drones.

They have the capacity to produce millions per month. And right out of the starting gates and they could use those drones to supply groups like the Houthis that are hard to attack because they are relatively remote.

Yet, the Houthis can use those drones or any group like that could use those drones to erect aerial denial blockades of sea air and land upwards of 500 to a thousand miles distant from their location.

We’ll reveal more of our wide-ranging discussion with John tomorrow. His insights into “netwar” are alarming, at best.

So it goes,

Addison Wiggin,

Grey Swan

Heh. Thoughts? Send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

The dollar’s share of global reserves is now roughly 40%, down from 60% in 2016. No other fiat currency filled the gap. Gold did.

That is the only fact you need to understand the long-term arc.

After the West demonstrated it could seize reserves, “safe” became a new word. Gold has no counterparty. It cannot be frozen with an executive order. It does not require permission to settle.

The last time Uncle Sam had this much debt rolling over, interest rates were effectively zero percent. That allowed for a massive expansion of total debt, even as total interest payouts shrank.

Having said all that, why does President Trump want Greenland so badly (other than as retribution for not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize)?

He insists it’s for national security, but, as I mentioned earlier, the U.S. military already has broad access to the island, as spelled out in the 1951 agreement signed by the U.S. and Denmark. Further, Greenland is under the protection of NATO, of which the U.S. is a member. If Russia or China tried to attack it, Article 5 of the treaty would be triggered, activating NATO forces.

Recent reporting suggests that some of Trump’s wealthiest backers see Greenland not as a military outpost or mining play, but as a blank slate. According to Reuters, influential tech investors—including Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen—have pitched the idea of turning parts of Greenland into a so-called “freedom city,” offering a low-regulation, quasi-autonomous hub for next-gen technologies.

Japan’s 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.

Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.

When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.

This mechanism isn’t new.