Spear Phishing, Drone War and The Election

“War is the continuation of politics by other means.”

–Carl von Clausewitz

We were preparing to release our latest interview with Grey Swan contributor John Robb, when a few news items crossed the transom.

Over the weekend, the Trump campaign announced that “foreign sources hostile to the United States” had accessed some private communications and documents from its network using AI modules.

A Microsoft report corroborated, announcing hacker groups connected with the Iranian government “sent a ‘spear phishing’ email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign.” The report continues:

They’ve laid the groundwork for influence campaigns on trending election-related topics and begun to activate these campaigns in an apparent effort to stir up controversy or sway voters—especially in swing states. [And] launched operations that Microsoft assesses are designed to gain intelligence on political campaigns and help enable them to influence the elections in the future.

Microsoft added that an Iranian group has been launching covert news sites targeting US voter groups on opposing ends of the political spectrum:

One of the sites, called Nio Thinker, caters to left-leaning audiences and insults former president Donald Trump, calling him an “opioid-pilled elephant in the MAGA china shop” and a “raving mad litigiosaur.”

Another, called Savannah Time, claims to be a “trusted source for conservative news in the vibrant city of Savannah” and focuses on topics including LGBTQ+ issues and gender reassignment. The evidence we found suggests the sites are using AI-enabled services to plagiarize at least some of their content from US publications.

The cynic presumes the worst.

In our “wag the dog” scenario, we immediately suspected the “news” had been pounced on by the Trump campaign because the “honeymoon” period of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz trying to rally the Democratic base was stealing headlines from their own post-assassination-attempt, Republican National Convention, and JD Vance announcement buzz.

Either way, another news report from the Associated Press indicates, “U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a guided missile submarine to the Middle East and is telling the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to sail more quickly to the area, the Defense Department said Sunday.”

As we track government spending, the national debt cresting $35 trillion, and the real motives for conflict in Ukraine, Israel and all across the Middle East, the motives for various details get murky.

“We’re in a networked world,” we’ve only recently noted to Mr. Robb. “Can the U.S. even win a forever war? Or is it just perpetually expensive.”

His response was not very encouraging. John Robb:

The US has been trying to manage the global situation for quite a while and has been doing a relatively bad job of it.

Top-line governments and nation-building stuff tend to backfire and haven’t yielded the results that we wanted. But now we see something relatively more dangerous. We’re already on an almost inevitable course towards conflict with China and Russia and most of Asia.

During the buildup, China has been producing a lot of drones.

They have the capacity to produce millions per month. And right out of the starting gates and they could use those drones to supply groups like the Houthis that are hard to attack because they are relatively remote.

Yet, the Houthis can use those drones or any group like that could use those drones to erect aerial denial blockades of sea air and land upwards of 500 to a thousand miles distant from their location.

Seems like a minor detail, but moving a submarine into the Mediterranean capable of launching long-range cruise missiles is an escalation – during a critical election already besieged with AI-induced “misinformation”… well, it’s caught our attention.

We’ll reveal more of our wide-ranging discussion with John tomorrow. His insights into “netwar” are alarming, at best.

So it goes,

Addison Wiggin,

Grey Swan

P.S. While watching JD Vance speak on C.B.S.’ Face the Nation this weekend, we came up with this suggestion for the Republican strategists: One up Harris and Walz by having Trump drop out of the race and grab all the headlines during the Democratic National Convention.

Trump has already remade the RNC in his image. They’d just need to throw in a new VP candidate and a couple aggressive debates. Vance is far more articulate about policy than either Trump or Harris.

Heh. Thoughts? Send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“War is the continuation of politics by other means.”

–Carl von Clausewitz

We were preparing to release our latest interview with Grey Swan contributor John Robb, when a few news items crossed the transom.

Over the weekend, the Trump campaign announced that “foreign sources hostile to the United States” had accessed some private communications and documents from its network using AI modules.

They’ve laid the groundwork for influence campaigns on trending election-related topics and begun to activate these campaigns in an apparent effort to stir up controversy or sway voters—especially in swing states. [And] launched operations that Microsoft assesses are designed to gain intelligence on political campaigns and help enable them to influence the elections in the future.

Microsoft added that an Iranian group has been launching covert news sites targeting US voter groups on opposing ends of the political spectrum:

The cynic presumes the worst.

“We’re in a networked world,” we’ve only recently noted to Mr. Robb. “Can the U.S. even win a forever war? Or is it just perpetually expensive.”

His response was not very encouraging. John Robb:

The US has been trying to manage the global situation for quite a while and has been doing a relatively bad job of it.

Top-line governments and nation-building stuff tend to backfire and haven’t yielded the results that we wanted. But now we see something relatively more dangerous. We’re already on an almost inevitable course towards conflict with China and Russia and most of Asia.

During the buildup, China has been producing a lot of drones.

They have the capacity to produce millions per month. And right out of the starting gates and they could use those drones to supply groups like the Houthis that are hard to attack because they are relatively remote.

Yet, the Houthis can use those drones or any group like that could use those drones to erect aerial denial blockades of sea air and land upwards of 500 to a thousand miles distant from their location.

We’ll reveal more of our wide-ranging discussion with John tomorrow. His insights into “netwar” are alarming, at best.

So it goes,

Addison Wiggin,

Grey Swan

Heh. Thoughts? Send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.

Who stipulated that politics and money have to be serious?

We do, in fact, write about money, the economy and financial markets. It’s to our own peril if we ignore the “passing parade” and its impact on them.

Populism as practiced by President Trump and the MAGA crowd is equally as pernicious, in our view, as the open worship of collectivism as expressed by Mamdani, AOC, and the progressive snollygosters gaining momentum among younger voters.

The system, as it were, is broken in all kinds of interesting ways. But we still have to live in it. And make decisions about our lives… our money… our families and our future.