A conversation with Dan Amoss, forensic accountant with an eye towards what’s next for the AI bubble in 2026
A conversation with Dan Amoss, forensic accountant with an eye towards what’s next for the AI bubble in 2026
December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.
The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.
We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.
December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.
Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.
Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.
December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.
Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.
They expect full-frontal military engagement.
Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?
Taiwan will not fall.
It will merge.
December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.
In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.
Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.
