Seven Charts That Put the Gold Bull Market in Context

“We have gold because we cannot trust government.”

– Herbert Hoover

March 31, 2025 — Remember that long, boring stretch where gold couldn’t break resistance at $2,000/oz?

Here it is in the context of this century’s bull market — note the definitive breakout in early 2024.

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What’s driving the bull market? Central bank buying. And what’s driving that? Geopolitics. Emerging market central banks started planning for a post-dollar world when the Ukraine war broke out:

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While the above was happening, the BRICS countries’ cumulative GDP surpassed that of the G-7 developed countries. As Incrementum notes:

For years, the BRICS+ countries have had a considerable trade and current account surplus with the West. A steadily increasing share of gold in the currency reserves of emerging economies is the manifestation of this development. This is similar to the situation after the Second World War, when Europe, especially Germany and France, successively increased their gold reserves as a result of high current account surpluses. In contrast, U.S. gold reserves fell to almost one quarter, or just over 8,000 tonnes, as a result of the gold drain. While the U.S. experienced a gold drain in the 1960s, there are currently signs of a gold gain in the emerging markets.

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Not surprisingly, China, with its persistent trade surplus, has been a leading buyer of gold.

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As they accumulate gold, foreign central banks are dumping U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

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China is also encouraging its citizens to own gold. The resulting strong domestic demand is driving gold prices to a premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This, in turn, is increasing the flow of gold from West to East. From Incrementum:

The enormous Chinese appetite for gold can be seen in the premium for Chinese gold compared to LBMA prices. The high domestic demand in China is also being fueled by China’s youth, who have recently discovered gold beans as an investment opportunity. In addition, import restrictions or tariffs on gold imports could keep prices in China artificially high. Another reason is likely to be China’s withdrawal from the LBMA gold auctions last year, which may have restricted the volume of gold flowing into China.

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Western investment advisors have yet to recognize the above dynamic. In 2023, 71% of their clients have virtually no exposure to gold, and that number has barely risen since then.

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A Bull Market With Legs

The trends driving the gold bull market — de-dollarization, inflation, and a looming currency reset — accelerated in the past year and have much further to go. Combined with the apparent cluelessness of Western investors, the result should be higher gold demand and rising prices in the coming decade. Keep stacking!

Regards,
John Rubino, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: The gold trade still has room to go. Please review our research on the gold bull and our investment recommendations here.

“I have always enjoyed Addyson’s thoughts and commentary,” writes Joan. D “

The second Trump administration is rapidly realigning the U.S. position in global politics; new policies (tariffs!) and advancements in AI are rebooting the entire U.S. economy, and — every day – your investments and your money are reflecting those changes…

We’ll have plenty of chances to point out things that make you go “hmmm…” and add a snarky comment or two.

Any first impressions? Please add your ideas or suggestions right here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“We have gold because we cannot trust government.”

– Herbert Hoover

March 31, 2025 — Remember that long, boring stretch where gold couldn’t break resistance at $2,000/oz?

Here it is in the context of this century’s bull market — note the definitive breakout in early 2024.

Turn Your Images On

What’s driving the bull market? Central bank buying. And what’s driving that? Geopolitics. Emerging market central banks started planning for a post-dollar world when the Ukraine war broke out:

Turn Your Images On

While the above was happening, the BRICS countries’ cumulative GDP surpassed that of the G-7 developed countries. As Incrementum notes:

Turn Your Images On

Not surprisingly, China, with its persistent trade surplus, has been a leading buyer of gold.

Turn Your Images On

As they accumulate gold, foreign central banks are dumping U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

Turn Your Images On

Western investment advisors have yet to recognize the above dynamic. In 2023, 71% of their clients have virtually no exposure to gold, and that number has barely risen since then.

Turn Your Images On

A Bull Market With Legs

Regards,
John Rubino, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: The gold trade still has room to go. Please review our research on the gold bull and our investment recommendations here.

“I have always enjoyed Addyson’s thoughts and commentary,” writes Joan. D “

We’ll have plenty of chances to point out things that make you go “hmmm…” and add a snarky comment or two.

Any first impressions? Please add your ideas or suggestions right here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

CNBC analysts are debating it.

Twitter threads are dissecting it.

Portfolio managers are losing sleep over it.

One question is dominating financial news right now:

“Are we in a bubble?”

We noticed yesterday, Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just set up a Substack page to help understand the proper depreciation values of the “Nvidia Model.”

The simple fact is that longevity estimates determine the entire profit picture for Mag 7 companies, whose earnings have been beating expectations.

The current numbers don’t reflect reality. Model sizes grow faster than chip cycles. Performance requirements leapfrog hardware before the ink dries on the purchase orders. Depreciation schedules assume years of usefulness that, in practice, last months.

If that mismatch becomes undeniable, or even a popular meme, the bubble doesn’t burst spectacularly — it simply deflates through balance sheets. Slowly. Silently. Just enough to take the glow off the entire narrative.

When the Fed began hiking rates to combat inflation, bond holdings tanked. Banks have been sweating it out, anticipating a rate cut cycle.

If the Fed cuts rates in December — odds now 80% — bond prices will continue to rise. Banks will be in better shape as unrealized losses decline. Hopefully, before a crisis breaks out.

But banks are not out of the woods, yet. And increased competition from digital assets (Dollar 2.0) will further squeeze the traditional banking business model.

I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes—learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them.

Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who—reportedly—read his own obituary that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at what he read and realized he should change his behavior.

Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.

Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity, or great power in government. When you help someone in any one of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat the Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.

CNBC analysts are debating it.

Twitter threads are dissecting it.

Portfolio managers are losing sleep over it.

One question is dominating financial news right now:

“Are we in a bubble?”

We noticed yesterday, Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just set up a Substack page to help understand the proper depreciation values of the “Nvidia Model.”

The simple fact is that longevity estimates determine the entire profit picture for Mag 7 companies, whose earnings have been beating expectations.

When the Fed began hiking rates to combat inflation, bond holdings tanked. Banks have been sweating it out, anticipating a rate cut cycle.

If the Fed cuts rates in December — odds now 80% — bond prices will continue to rise. Banks will be in better shape as unrealized losses decline. Hopefully, before a crisis breaks out.

But banks are not out of the woods, yet. And increased competition from digital assets (Dollar 2.0) will further squeeze the traditional banking business model.

Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.