Seven Charts That Put the Gold Bull Market in Context

“We have gold because we cannot trust government.”

– Herbert Hoover

March 31, 2025 — Remember that long, boring stretch where gold couldn’t break resistance at $2,000/oz?

Here it is in the context of this century’s bull market — note the definitive breakout in early 2024.

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What’s driving the bull market? Central bank buying. And what’s driving that? Geopolitics. Emerging market central banks started planning for a post-dollar world when the Ukraine war broke out:

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While the above was happening, the BRICS countries’ cumulative GDP surpassed that of the G-7 developed countries. As Incrementum notes:

For years, the BRICS+ countries have had a considerable trade and current account surplus with the West. A steadily increasing share of gold in the currency reserves of emerging economies is the manifestation of this development. This is similar to the situation after the Second World War, when Europe, especially Germany and France, successively increased their gold reserves as a result of high current account surpluses. In contrast, U.S. gold reserves fell to almost one quarter, or just over 8,000 tonnes, as a result of the gold drain. While the U.S. experienced a gold drain in the 1960s, there are currently signs of a gold gain in the emerging markets.

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Not surprisingly, China, with its persistent trade surplus, has been a leading buyer of gold.

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As they accumulate gold, foreign central banks are dumping U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

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China is also encouraging its citizens to own gold. The resulting strong domestic demand is driving gold prices to a premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This, in turn, is increasing the flow of gold from West to East. From Incrementum:

The enormous Chinese appetite for gold can be seen in the premium for Chinese gold compared to LBMA prices. The high domestic demand in China is also being fueled by China’s youth, who have recently discovered gold beans as an investment opportunity. In addition, import restrictions or tariffs on gold imports could keep prices in China artificially high. Another reason is likely to be China’s withdrawal from the LBMA gold auctions last year, which may have restricted the volume of gold flowing into China.

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Western investment advisors have yet to recognize the above dynamic. In 2023, 71% of their clients have virtually no exposure to gold, and that number has barely risen since then.

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A Bull Market With Legs

The trends driving the gold bull market — de-dollarization, inflation, and a looming currency reset — accelerated in the past year and have much further to go. Combined with the apparent cluelessness of Western investors, the result should be higher gold demand and rising prices in the coming decade. Keep stacking!

Regards,
John Rubino, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: The gold trade still has room to go. Please review our research on the gold bull and our investment recommendations here.

“I have always enjoyed Addyson’s thoughts and commentary,” writes Joan. D “

The second Trump administration is rapidly realigning the U.S. position in global politics; new policies (tariffs!) and advancements in AI are rebooting the entire U.S. economy, and — every day – your investments and your money are reflecting those changes…

We’ll have plenty of chances to point out things that make you go “hmmm…” and add a snarky comment or two.

Any first impressions? Please add your ideas or suggestions right here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“We have gold because we cannot trust government.”

– Herbert Hoover

March 31, 2025 — Remember that long, boring stretch where gold couldn’t break resistance at $2,000/oz?

Here it is in the context of this century’s bull market — note the definitive breakout in early 2024.

Turn Your Images On

What’s driving the bull market? Central bank buying. And what’s driving that? Geopolitics. Emerging market central banks started planning for a post-dollar world when the Ukraine war broke out:

Turn Your Images On

While the above was happening, the BRICS countries’ cumulative GDP surpassed that of the G-7 developed countries. As Incrementum notes:

Turn Your Images On

Not surprisingly, China, with its persistent trade surplus, has been a leading buyer of gold.

Turn Your Images On

As they accumulate gold, foreign central banks are dumping U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

Turn Your Images On

Western investment advisors have yet to recognize the above dynamic. In 2023, 71% of their clients have virtually no exposure to gold, and that number has barely risen since then.

Turn Your Images On

A Bull Market With Legs

Regards,
John Rubino, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: The gold trade still has room to go. Please review our research on the gold bull and our investment recommendations here.

“I have always enjoyed Addyson’s thoughts and commentary,” writes Joan. D “

We’ll have plenty of chances to point out things that make you go “hmmm…” and add a snarky comment or two.

Any first impressions? Please add your ideas or suggestions right here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

But Green is describing more than just a new calculation. He’s talking about a new form of misery.’ It’s a poverty where you may still have most of the accoutrements of middle-class life. But your relationship with the financial elite has changed: you are indentured to the credit industry — for life.

Historically, when the Fed has cut into inflation above 3%, one of two outcomes tends to follow:

A brief reprieve, followed by a larger inflation wave (see: 1970s).

A crisis born from cheap money rather than expensive money (see: housing in the 2000s).

We are heading into another round of cuts with:

• A still-bloated balance sheet

• A new digital plumbing that auto-funds the Treasury

• Hard-asset markets flashing warning lights

Paul Tudor Jones summed it up in one dry quip: interest expense is now one of Washington’s largest bills; commodities are “ridiculously under-owned”; and “all roads lead to inflation.”

The Fed’s flip from QT to easing doesn’t end this inflation episode. It likely begins its next season.

The question investors should ask themselves isn’t whether this trend is sustainable – it isn’t.

Instead, they should ask if the $2 trillion increase in Google’s market cap has sucked capital away from other promising parts of the market – and if so, where investors can expect a rally when Google reverses.

Long have we dwelt on the corrupting influence of funny money on capital asset prices and on the economy. Everything gets distorted, perverse…and false. We get high prices. We get low prices. What we don’t get are honest prices.

Yesterday, we looked at the ‘small time crooks’ — ripping off the public for a million or two.

Today, we move to the big fry.

You’ll recall that the money in question was never earned by anyone. No one has a genuine claim to it. And what kind of apple falls from this funny money tree? Just what you’d expect…a funny one…with the worms already in it.

Historically, when the Fed has cut into inflation above 3%, one of two outcomes tends to follow:

A brief reprieve, followed by a larger inflation wave (see: 1970s).

A crisis born from cheap money rather than expensive money (see: housing in the 2000s).

We are heading into another round of cuts with:

• A still-bloated balance sheet

• A new digital plumbing that auto-funds the Treasury

• Hard-asset markets flashing warning lights

Paul Tudor Jones summed it up in one dry quip: interest expense is now one of Washington’s largest bills; commodities are “ridiculously under-owned”; and “all roads lead to inflation.”

The Fed’s flip from QT to easing doesn’t end this inflation episode. It likely begins its next season.

The question investors should ask themselves isn’t whether this trend is sustainable – it isn’t.

Yesterday, we looked at the ‘small time crooks’ — ripping off the public for a million or two.

Today, we move to the big fry.