Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, Ares and Apollo have joined BlackRock, Blue Owl and KKR this week, announcing restricted withdrawals from their private credit funds. “Cockroaches,” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon called them.
From 2023 to 2025, private credit fund managers were happy to “talk their book,” as they say on Wall Street, when things appeared to be going well.
Now? Book values are sinking. With every restriction, a new wave of uncertainty over loan quality and defaults soars. Some CEOs are still talking their book – but it just makes investors want to head for the exits more quickly.
When restrictions on withdrawals mount and investors can’t withdraw their retirement money from these black-box funds, fear sets in. A chart of private credit fund performance bleeds red:
Publicly-traded companies tied to private credit now trade at a 25% discount to their book value. That trend will only get worse. (Source: BCRED)
As our Andrew Packer will warn investors at the Money Show in Hollywood, Florida, Wall Street’s push to add private credit funds to your 401k plan was a “tell” that the smart money wanted out – and needed someone to buy their assets.
Andrew’s had his cockroach swatter out since those early tells appeared following the banking crisis in March 2023.
Private credit remains an enigma, a black box of loans whose true value isn’t known until it’s written down – or written off entirely.
Andrew added a position in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity to profit from private credit, which remains the largest non-geopolitical event today.
Beware: the collapse in private credit could also spook investors in other sectors of the stock market – even if tensions in the Middle East cool and oil prices slide back down.
“I’m not a total pessimist,” notes Andrew. “There are plenty of private credit deals that are fine. After a crisis, you can find deep value in financial stocks.”
Andrew outlined some specific companies he’s targeting – and the book value that he’s targeting – in this month’s Grey Swan Bulletin. Click here to sign up and become a member to get the specifics.
~ Addison
P.S. Last week on Grey Swan Live!, our natural-resources specialist, Shad Marquitz, provided a prescient look at gold and oil price volatility; the “whack-a-mole” trading environment set in motion by the war in Iran.
Shad systematically covered the mosaic of natural resource opportunities in oil, liquefied natural gas, antimony, tungsten and precious metals following the Iran bombing excursion.
If you’re looking for more than just a further investment in gold, look no further – Shad shared a list of smaller-cap companies that look promising across the commodity space now.
Click here to sign up for the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity if you’re not a member yet to get this latest insight – the replay is up on our site now. And catch Shad’s article in our recently-released March issue, looking at merger & acquisition activity in the gold miner space.
This week, we’ll dive into international real estate with the piece I filmed in Panama. I attended The Gathering, hosted by our friends at Real Estate Trend Alert (RETA).
RETA members are able to get massive discounts on real estate projects in top destinations like Panama, Mexico, Portugal and more.
