Mind the Death Jaws

February 26, 2026 • 1 minute, 16 second read

Last night, Nvidia reported earnings. The AI bellwether doubled its net income from $22 billion to $43 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Good news, right? Nope. The stock dropped like a stone at the open today, down 7%.

For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them — investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.

Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies:

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Soaring AI spending is hitting Mag 7 balance sheets and will risk capital gains for individual investors across the indexes going forward. (Source: Crescat Capital)

The market has a logic all its own. Despite record profits, the Mag as a group is down 12% from its October 28, 2025, high.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago.

Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

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Please join us while we visit with family founder, Wayde Milas, inside the Rarcoa vault to check out the 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins. Brand new sets will be available to attendees of the Zoom at a steeply discounted event price.

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

Ripple Effect

Mind the Death Jaws

Addison Wiggin

February 26, 2026 • 1 minute, 16 second read

AI spending market valuation

Last night, Nvidia reported earnings. The AI bellwether doubled its net income from $22 billion to $43 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Good news, right? Nope. The stock dropped like a stone at the open today, down 7%.

For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them — investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.

Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies:

Turn Your Images On

Soaring AI spending is hitting Mag 7 balance sheets and will risk capital gains for individual investors across the indexes going forward. (Source: Crescat Capital)

The market has a logic all its own. Despite record profits, the Mag as a group is down 12% from its October 28, 2025, high.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago.

Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

Turn Your Images On

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

Nvidia’s Earnings Can’t Beat Seasonality

February 26, 2026 • Andrew Packer

Nvidia’s selloff isn’t unexpected. It reports late in earnings season. Most of its customers have already reported how many chips they’ve bought or plan to buy.

Most of those big-tech names sold off after their earnings in recent weeks, too. But we’re seeing signs of a slowdown, of sorts.

Companies like Microsoft and Apple are now increasing their AI spend so much that they’re slowing their spending on other priorities.

Nvidia’s Earnings Can’t Beat Seasonality

Gold’s Relentless Bid

February 25, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.

Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.

The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Nvidia’s Earnings Can’t Beat Seasonality

February 26, 2026 • Andrew Packer

Nvidia’s selloff isn’t unexpected. It reports late in earnings season. Most of its customers have already reported how many chips they’ve bought or plan to buy.

Most of those big-tech names sold off after their earnings in recent weeks, too. But we’re seeing signs of a slowdown, of sorts.

Companies like Microsoft and Apple are now increasing their AI spend so much that they’re slowing their spending on other priorities.

Gold’s Relentless Bid

February 25, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.

Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.

The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.