Mind the Death Jaws

Last night, Nvidia reported earnings. The AI bellwether doubled its net income from $22 billion to $43 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Good news, right? Nope. The stock dropped like a stone at the open today, down 7%.

For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them — investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.

Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies:

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Soaring AI spending is hitting Mag 7 balance sheets and will risk capital gains for individual investors across the indexes going forward. (Source: Crescat Capital)

The market has a logic all its own. Despite record profits, the Mag as a group is down 12% from its October 28, 2025, high.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago.

Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

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Please join us while we visit with family founder, Wayde Milas, inside the Rarcoa vault to check out the 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins. Brand new sets will be available to attendees of the Zoom at a steeply discounted event price.

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

Last night, Nvidia reported earnings. The AI bellwether doubled its net income from $22 billion to $43 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Good news, right? Nope. The stock dropped like a stone at the open today, down 7%.

For AI-linked companies — Nvidia foremost among them — investor expectations continue to rise along with their valuations. At this point, even billions in profit are not enough.

Like the fiber optic spending plans that dominated the 1990s at the height of the dotcom bubble, AI spending is squeezing the cash flows for the S&P 500’s biggest companies:

Turn Your Images On

Soaring AI spending is hitting Mag 7 balance sheets and will risk capital gains for individual investors across the indexes going forward. (Source: Crescat Capital)

The market has a logic all its own. Despite record profits, the Mag as a group is down 12% from its October 28, 2025, high.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago.

Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

Turn Your Images On

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

Oil prices opened significantly higher in overnight trading, following a weekend of news about shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure.

Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).

Oil prices opened significantly higher in overnight trading, following a weekend of news about shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure.