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Daily Missive

Maintaining Sanity in the Spin-cycle Reality

Loading ...Andrew Packer

December 3, 2024 • 4 minute, 31 second read


censorshiptariffs

Maintaining Sanity in the Spin-cycle Reality

A “Give your head a shake” interlude

James West
Dec 03, 2024

Not sure to what extent AI, crypto, right wing extremism, interest rates and inflation, whack-a-mole investing and government corruption is infecting your day-to-day. But thought a conversation about maintaining clarity and priorities was in order.

Keep scrolling, as they say, if this is of no interest to you.

In my case, keeping tabs on what I see as threats to my way of life has become the largest screen-time contingent of the daily information mix.

It would become a major cause of anxiety if I was wired differently. Instead, it’s all just a distraction.

It is said that anxiety arises from contemplation of the future, while depression comes from dwelling on the past.

Both of these mental conditions occur within one’s own head, as part of the non-stop internal dialogue that we maintain.

As somebody who writes on a daily basis, it is natural to spend a great deal of time inside my head thinking thoughts that are hopefully maybe relevant…or even insightful. Trying to describe through writing what is happening in the world is an exercise ultimately in talking to one’s self.

But what I’ve learned at the ripe age of 60 is that the best things in life tend to happen outside of one’s head. Like, in the real world.

Walking around in the forest with no particular thoughts, observing and inhaling and touching the indifferent life forms for whom the entire human enterprise is only the source of all noise and destruction is a form of cleansing of the spirit.

The Japanese refer to this exact practice as Shinrin Yoku; literally “forest bathing”.

I only learned about this Japanese practice after a lifetime of emulating it without having a formal definition of it. It has been a rule of mine to prioritize exposure to forest settings every day far and above the pursuit of material wealth.

But not just intentionally immersing myself in nature.

There is immense peace of mind and gratification that comes from chopping firewood, milling timber into lumber, building goofy outdoor furniture, making chimichurri, or bread, or mucking about with irrigation pumps and pipes and filtres and washers and valves and gardens and machinery. This similarly derived from a contemplative application of the physical body to the physical world with only minimal input from the brain.

Within the mundane tasks of the physical world lies the path to mental serenity.

For this reason, no matter the burden of imagined obligations, deliverables, follow-ups, revisions, scheduling and zoom calls, I make sure to take at least a couple of hours in the middle of the short winter day and go outside, breathe deeply and forget about that fabricated mental static and relax with a menial chore or two.

*****************

I now have two choices in creating original written content with financial and political themes: parrot the sanitized zeitgeist of the day, or wax full conspiracy theory/doomsday predictions. Everything else is just not click-worthy. Apparently.

Or worse.

If the editorial tone comes across of too political, or (especially) too critical of tech companies or their egomaniacal CEO’s, the post is deleted, or else shows up in no one’s feed, rendering the author and the sentiment invisible.

Censorship has never been more thorough or more easily triggered.

And there is nothing more triggering of agitation than to see a piece of content one has agonized over for hours or in some cases days be arbitrarily cancelled because it offends some poor billionaire’s sensibilities to the point where he has enlisted algorithmic agents of search and destruction to sniff out and suffocate them.

Truly original, controversial, or critical arguments cogently presented are now so efficiently snipped out of the media feed (thanks to Google, Apple and Facebook) that there are only chocolate and vanilla to choose from.

And so, the Closing of the American Mind (1987, Allen Bloom) has been perfected to such a degree that there is no diversity of opinion any more; there are just variations of the same opinion.

Take, for example, the “tariff” canon Trump fired that rattled Canadian PM Justin Trudeau so thoroughly that he jumped on a plane for a pilgrimage to Mar-a-lago, ostensibly to educate Trump.

The success of that mission had about as good a chance as teaching a donkey to poach eggs.

Yet why do we care? Trudeau’s smoke-blowing “we gotta take this guy seriously” posture only serves to cement his relationship with Trump as subordinate.

Anybody with a sense of even recent history knows that Trump uses shock and awe language to scare weak targets into submitting to lesser demands. If anything, Trump is the reincarnation of Machiavelli, if not his unwitting apprentice. Actually, Trump is more like Machiavelli and Nero rolled into one.

But see?

This is what I’m talking about. Under the threat of 25% tariffs, everybody in Mexico and Canada is getting all worked up and wondering “what does it all mean” for me and mine and us and ours?

Is my life about to get 25% more expensive? Am I going to pay 25% more in taxes? Are there bad men coming to take me away?

Yes to all of the above. Which is why you need chill TF out and go outside and find some forest and build some shit and go all in on XRP. Breathe.

 

~~ James West, Midas Letter


George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.

The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.

Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.

George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem
Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.

While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.

They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.

Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy
Another Day, Another Circular AI Investment

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Liquidity is flowing again, but conviction isn’t. U.S. M2 money supply has been expanding for months, even before the recent interest rate cut.

Currently, it’s up 4.8% year over year. That’s the fastest pace since 2022. That’s just enough to drive stocks higher in the short-term. Even algorithms and systematic funds will respond mechanically and buy stocks when they see liquidity rise. It’s the most fundamental indicator.

The volatility index (VIX)’s rise to 16.6, up over 2% this week, shows that big money is hedging, even as the market indices rise. After all, with signs of a slowing economy – and a government shut down – it’s hardly business as usual.

Another Day, Another Circular AI Investment
The Ghost of Bastiat

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By then the receipts on my desk had arranged themselves into a sort of chorus. I heard, faintly, another refrain—one from Kentucky. In the first days of the shutdown, Senator Rand Paul stood alone among Republicans and voted against his party’s stopgap, telling interviewers that the numbers “don’t add up” and that he would not sign on to another year that piles $2 trillion onto the debt.

That, I realized, is what the tariff story shares with the broader budget theater: the habit of calling a tax something else, of shifting burdens into the fog and then celebrating the silhouette as victory. Even the vote tally made the point: he was the only Republican “no,” a lonely arithmetic lesson in a crowded room.

The Ghost of Bastiat