“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. There is a very great distinction because when you are planning for an emergency you must start with this one thing: the very definition of “emergency” is that it is unexpected, therefore it is not going to happen the way you are planning.”

— Dwight D. Eisenhower

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January 31, 2025 — Gold’s breakthrough to new all-time highs of $2,850 per ounce is just the beginning.

How can I say that so confidently? Because of the factors that have led me to see a big move coming in gold for years that’s finally bearing out…

You see, in 2018, a publisher tasked me with devising various economic scenarios related to President Trump’s 2020 re-election.

One scenario ended up being published. It reads, in part:

Fresh off the latest polls showing a dead heat between incumbent Donald Trump and his opponent – a left-wing senator from a New England state, markets don’t seem to like either proposition…

The final jobs reports has come in over the prior weekend. Unemployment isn’t terrible at 6%, but it’s marginally higher than when Trump took office…

The Federal Reserve already raised interest rates half a percent in September to try and curb inflation, now running more than 5% for the first time in decades…

There’s simply too much debt, now nearing an unbelievable $27 trillion…

A few minutes before the markets open, something else happens.

The price of gold crosses $3,500 for the first time.

As far as predictions go, there’s a lot that came to pass, and a lot that didn’t:

• Joe Biden wasn’t from a New England state, as Delaware sits just below the Mason-Dixon line.
• In November 2020, unemployment hit 6.7%, higher than when Trump took office.
• Inflation didn’t top 5% until after 2020.
• In September 2020, the federal debt topped $27 trillion, so that was spot-on.

Of course, who could have predicted that a global pandemic would hit at the start of the year? That’s a Black Swan event, well past a more predictable Grey Swan event!

Now, with gold prices breaking above $2,800 for the first time, it’s a sign of a bigger rally ahead.

To understand how much more gold has to run, let’s unpack the reality of the gold market today…

Gold Reasserts Itself As The Government Continues to Destroy Your Money

My 2018 analysis melded several factors, all of which still apply today as we plan out gold’s next move higher.

One factor should be obvious: The inexorable rise in government debt and perpetual deficit spending.

Another factor was Trump’s first-term spending plans. To some extent, his proposals were a bit like an old-school Democrat.

Adding tax cuts to the mix would, in the short term, exacerbate the deficit (and that pesky long-term that politicians love to talk about never seems to arrive).

Looking strictly at the macro view, gold, which traded around $1,300 per ounce in 2018, looked like a bargain. And its price was finally heading higher again, having bottomed out around $1,050 in early 2016.

I grew up reading my dad’s Forbes subscription. In his columns, Steve Forbes often wrote about gold’s price, which he considered a barometer for the health of the U.S. dollar.

(Side note: I interviewed Steve a few years back and mentioned this detail of my upbringing. He complimented my dad’s reading habits, and suggested I get my own subscription. As the kids say, it’s “on brand.”)

With all of these factors in mind, gold was definitely undervalued at $1,300 per ounce in 2018. Today, having more than doubled, it may not be as big of a bargain, but it still looks attractive.

After all, central banks continue to accumulate the metal, and countries like Russia, China, and Turkey make massive purchases.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and financial reprisals, including Russia’s removal from the U.S.-backed SWIFT payment system, sent central bank gold buying into overdrive.

Globally, the dollar’s dominance in trade has started to slide at an accelerating rate. And last year, we released research on what we call BRICs Bucks, an alternative currency that developing nations may use in trade, bypassing the U.S. dollar entirely.

So, demand is strong, even as retail investors haven’t really gone all-in, like during the last gold market rally in 2010-2011. Supply? New gold finds are much smaller than in the past. So economics 101 tells us prices should keep trending higher.

Meanwhile, the federal debt continues to soar. That’s nothing new. But add in a global rejection of the dollar, and suddenly gold’s luster shines brighter than ever.

So, yes, gold looks attractive today.

Gold would probably have already topped $5,000 per ounce today if it weren’t for alternatives like bitcoin. While more volatile, bitcoin has had far higher percentage returns since 2020.

As Grey Swan Fraternity member Mark Jeftovic recently shared with Addison:

“Bitcoin doesn’t preempt gold. So a lot of bitcoiners are bitcoin or gold, and bitcoin is better, and a lot of gold bugs are like bitcoin or gold, and gold is better… Bitcoin is the equivalent of that for the information economy for the digital age, the network age that isn’t replacing the physical world.”

But, as much as I’ve enjoyed great returns on bitcoin, I’ll admit, in the past week, I just added two more ounces of gold to the family pile.

That’s because bitcoin, if it’s following its four-year cycle, will have one last big push higher this year, and likely peak in the fall. Gold’s cycles are much longer, and its previous massive push higher was in 2011. As the global monetary system changes, gold’s timeless luster shines through.

Our latest research indicates that not only is gold poised for more gains, but it may also hit the latter half of a commodity rally when truly life-changing returns occur.

Since 2000, when gold was at a low of $250 per ounce, it has soared over tenfold. Under the right conditions, a similar return could happen in a much shorter time span.

This prediction, like my 2018 predictions about the 2020 election, will likely have some accurate and inaccurate details behind them as events unfold. But if I’m generally right about the direction, it’ll still mean a massive opportunity ahead for gold.

My gold plan is simple: Keep stacking physical gold. And adding some capital to gold mining stocks ahead of a potential parabolic move higher in the metal.

Regards,

Andrew Packer,
Grey Swan

P.S. Don’t have a plan? Don’t worry; we’ve got you covered. We’ve just finished research on the top ways to buy gold now. Think of it as your “done for you” gold strategy for 2025 and 2026. But that’s not all…

We’ve also found a subset of the gold mining industry that essentially has a license to profit from gold finds. And best of all, these companies don’t have to drill a single hole in the ground. Or pay a single miner. Or source a new drill bit when an old one breaks.

For the specifics on the plans we’re making in the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity to profit from gold’s next move higher (including some off-the-radar gold stocks), sign up and log in to read our latest special reports.

Have some insights on gold or bitcoin you want to share as the global monetary system evolves? Do it! Send your comments to addison@greyswanfraternity.com. We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.