“I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can’t stop.”
– F.A. Hayek 1984
November 15, 2024— We are alive and well in the Big Easy.
Despite some challenges landing in Denver thanks to an errant swan in the flight path of a 737, our travels have otherwise been fortunately uneventful.
Today, we continue our post-election mini-tour of America with a celebration. This week, the New Orleans Investment Conference is underway. And it’s in its 50th year.
In the first year of the conference, the push was on to legalize ownership of gold bullion. U.S. citizens had been banned from owning gold in 1933. Happily, that ended on December 31, 1974, with a bill signed by Gerald Ford.
That makes this year’s confab a sort of 50th anniversary for gold ownership in the U.S. too. While the New Orleans Investment Conference largely focuses on natural resources such as gold, with an eye towards your economic freedom, it covers the entire investment world.
That includes some of the macroeconomic dangers that we view as potential grey swan events. And a great reason to attend and get more details on such events.
Meanwhile, bitcoin topped $98,000 this morning and seems to be ready to break six figures.
Bitcoin has been dubbed “freedom money.” That’s because its issuance isn’t dependent on a central bank. And it’s programmed with a hard cap. Over 19 million of the maximum 21 million that will ever exist have been mined.
The post-election movement in bitcoin isn’t just the price. A more pro-crypto regulatory regime is on the way, and investors are already responding in kind.
Last week, as the cryptocurrency was hitting $90,000, I asked our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer, who’s owned bitcoin for over seven years now, when he would plan on selling it. His response, which you may find helpful as the price starts to jump around significantly, is below. ~ Enjoy, Addison
When (and How) to Sell Your Bitcoin
Andrew Packer, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
Last week, Addison asked me when I’d sell my bitcoin. Given the cryptocurrency’s pop higher to a peak of $93,000 last week, and it closing in on $98,000 today, it’s a good question.
The short answer? I’ll never sell all of it. At this point, it’s likely not even half. As the saying goes, bitcoin has no top price, because fiat currencies can be printed to zero.
The longer answer? I’ll try to take advantage of bitcoin’s market cycles to build a stake at the lowest cost possible.
Remember, bitcoin started in the throes of the 2008 financial crisis. At its core, bitcoin is a piece of code. You either run it on a node of your own and accept it, or you don’t.
It’s not shoved down your throat like your country’s monopoly paper currency. The rules don’t change arbitrarily. And it’s now too powerful for someone to control 51% of the network and change the rules to their liking.
Bitcoin was designed as a peer-to-peer currency with absolute scarcity. In the world of fiat currencies we live in, when the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, or European Central Bank can just print up more money on a whim, that’s huge. It turns out that in a fiat system, bitcoin is a phenomenal savings technology.
Just consider one aspect of our current financial system…
Bank bail-ins are just one of many reasons why you don’t hate our current financial system enough.
A bail-in requires depositors to bail out a failing bank.
It’s an assault against property rights, and often comes with more restrictions later. As the kids jest today, “as a treat.”
The most famous bank bail-in occurred in March 2013, in Cyprus.
The Eastern Mediterranean island’s banking system was two things: A haven for foreign investors (primarily Russian), and insolvent.
So the bank limited cash withdrawals, and imposed a levy, taking a big chunk of a banker’s deposits over the insured amount.
I first heard about bitcoin around its inception in 2009. The idea of digital money sounded interesting. But in the throes of the housing market, and lacking the computer skills needed to mine and store bitcoin, the idea languished.
The Cyprus bail-in brought it back on my radar. That’s because bitcoin prices soared following the bail-in as investors looked for a safe place to park their capital.
Bitcoin itself is safe. But bitcoin has also had its banking problems, from Mt. Gox to the collapse of FTX in the most recent cycle. And in 2013, it was still just outside the realm of my technical knowledge.
It took me until 2017 to get into bitcoin itself. The timing wasn’t too bad. Bitcoin had just popped over $1,100, topping gold prices at the time. Hell, I still thought it was a potential scam at the time. But in investing, you don’t really learn until you put some money at risk. So I did.
And later, in 2017, when prices topped $15,000 (on the way to a peak of $17,000), I sold over half my position. I’d use that capital to inch my way back in during the 2019-2020 “crypto winter.” The pandemic and stimulus measures showed just how powerful owning bitcoin could be.
And the trucker protest in Canada over vaccine mandates showed the need for a money independent from governments. So I bought more, and looked for ways to add bitcoin to my trading account.
I found it with MicroStrategy, the business analytics company that’s now best known for being a leveraged trade on bitcoin. In late 2022, near the bottom of bitcoin’s last cycle, MicroStrategy traded at a discount to its bitcoin holdings. Today, it’s a hefty premium.
Ultimately, I’m both a buyer and seller of bitcoin right now. I took a “free ride” on MicroStrategy (MSTR) ahead of the election. I’ll admit I didn’t sell at the top. But I’ll likely have other buying opportunities elsewhere. And selling 20% of a position after it’s gone up five-fold means I’ve got my original capital back to put to use elsewhere.
Currently, I’m dollar-cost-averaging actual bitcoin to the tune of $10 per day. If it drops under $50,000 again, I’ll make additional purchases outright.
But my goal is to create generational wealth. And bitcoin is a significant component to get me there.
Next year, when bitcoin is likely to hit a cycle peak, I may take a bit off the table then. And hopefully, we’ll get another 50%+ pullback to get back in.
Eventually, with the rising institutional interest in bitcoin, the big swings may go away. For now, I think we have at least one more cycle left. We’re that early. But after going from a 17-bagger in 2017 with bitcoin to a 5-bagger in 2023-2024 with MicroStrategy, the returns will diminish.
When will I sell the majority of my bitcoin? When there’s something better out there than a peer-to-peer digital money system that isn’t subject to the whims of central bankers. I’m not holding my breath. And I feel the same way about the physical gold and silver I’ve also picked up over the decades.
If you’re not looking to play bitcoin’s cycles, just set up a dollar-cost-average and let time do the heavy lifting for you. Unlike other assets, bitcoin won’t take as long, but, again, returns will only slow from here.
For now, bitcoin is still a buy. This time next year, it will likely be near a cycle peak, and it would be good to take some money off the table ahead of another crypto winter. ~~ Andrew Packer, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
Regards,
Addison Wiggin,
Grey Swan
P.S. Continuing our conversation with readers from yesterday: We are not fans of the Kool-Aid. But neither are we fans of the alternatives.
Trump has rebuilt the Republican party to support his brand of economic populism. But even with the political capital of the resounding election win, he still has to take on the established interests in Washington.
“Even if it’s him” – i.e. Trump – he’s the best suited politically to give it a go. It’s still going to be a battle. The devil will be in the details. Washington will not shed its own Trump derangement easily. As a writer, there are plenty of threads to follow.
Reader D. Malanga suggests we look in this Gramscian direction:
“It seems to me we are searching for an explanation to the un-American activities of the left, blaming Biden, Harris, and Obama for the lack of a definitive source.
“Perhaps the ‘source’ is so elusive because it is a natural phenomenon in the nature of man to want to get ahead. If you belong to a company, a government agency or a school board, etc, you go along with the power or you are left behind… no promotions, no raises.
“This begs the question, how did the left infiltrate all the areas of power that they now occupy? The answer…. slowly.
“Frank Marshall Davis mentored Obama on communism. In 1969, Hillary Clinton wrote her 92-page thesis on Saul Alinsky, a Marxist who wrote the rules for a radical revolution.
“Bernie Sanders, who spent his entire life as a Marxist activist, issued papers that were the revolutionary blueprint for the Biden administration. If these people at the top tell you what to do, you follow or wither away.
“Read the 13 rules Alinsky wrote to divide society and ask if any of the following might be adhering to Alinsky’s advice:
Critical Race Theory
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion
Environmental, Social, Governance
“For The People” Act of 2021
1619 Project
Title IX changes to women’s sports
Establishing a ‘Disinformation Board
Woke Military
Corporate DEI executive positions
Increasing the number of states
Increasing the number of judges
Eliminating the Electoral College
“This list can go on and on, but you get the point. We must call these types of actions when we see them and brand their followers as un-American. Then maybe they will slowly wither and be excluded… no promotions or raises.”
Send your thoughts on post-election America, gold, or bitcoin here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
