Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

Today’s stock market enthusiasm is based in part on the expectation of ever-easier money for the balance of the decade. But can the Fed really deliver this in the face of soaring financial assets, off-the-charts speculation, and rising general inflation? Wouldn’t that spike inflation? Probably. So at some point in 2025 the Fed will have to stop lowering rates.

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

China’s growing maritime pressure around Taiwan demonstrates economic leverage may be its preferred path to reshaping regional power dynamics.

Rapid growth in Treasury bill issuance is tying federal borrowing costs more tightly to short-term interest rates set by the central bank…

SpaceX has given a masterclass on what to expect from an IPO. But history shows a surge in IPO volume tends to mark near-term market caution.

With inflation fears fading and risk appetite surging, precious metals may be setting up as one of the market’s most overlooked opportunities.

China’s growing maritime pressure around Taiwan demonstrates economic leverage may be its preferred path to reshaping regional power dynamics.

Rapid growth in Treasury bill issuance is tying federal borrowing costs more tightly to short-term interest rates set by the central bank…

SpaceX has given a masterclass on what to expect from an IPO. But history shows a surge in IPO volume tends to mark near-term market caution.

With inflation fears fading and risk appetite surging, precious metals may be setting up as one of the market’s most overlooked opportunities.