Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

Today’s stock market enthusiasm is based in part on the expectation of ever-easier money for the balance of the decade. But can the Fed really deliver this in the face of soaring financial assets, off-the-charts speculation, and rising general inflation? Wouldn’t that spike inflation? Probably. So at some point in 2025 the Fed will have to stop lowering rates.

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Beneath the Surface

Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

John Rubino

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

crisis gold Inflation

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Frank Holmes: What Gold Reveals About America’s Affordability Crisis

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A generation ago, a single income could support a family, buy a house and pay for a vehicle or two in the driveway.

Today, even two high earners are struggling to purchase a new home.

According to a recent report from Bankrate, a household earning $80,000 a year is now priced out of 75% of all new homes on the market. A family now needs to earn at least $113,000, and in some major metros, it’s closer to $200,000.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate has slipped to a six-year low, with further declines expected next year. Families are being squeezed from every angle.

The point I want to make here is that the so-called affordability crisis isn’t just about the cost of homes or other assets. It’s about the cost of money.

Frank Holmes: What Gold Reveals About America’s Affordability Crisis

The Long-Term Cost of Denial

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In just the first two months of Fiscal Year 2026, the deficit already totals $458 billion — the second-largest start on record.

More troubling still, the net interest expense hit $179 billion, outrunning Medicare, defense, and healthcare. At this pace, interest will again be the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget.

Cisco Hits An All-Time High

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

At the absolute peak of the dot-com boom — routers stacked to the ceiling and PowerPoint masquerading as profits — Cisco’s market capitalization topped out at roughly 4.4% of U.S. GDP.

Nvidia today? Roughly 16% of U.S. GDP.

That’s not a rounding error.

Measured against the size of the economy, Nvidia is in a category Cisco never visited. Which means that any serious disappointment in the AI build-out would scale 2000–01 – geometrically.

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Frank Holmes: What Gold Reveals About America’s Affordability Crisis

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A generation ago, a single income could support a family, buy a house and pay for a vehicle or two in the driveway.

Today, even two high earners are struggling to purchase a new home.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate has slipped to a six-year low, with further declines expected next year. Families are being squeezed from every angle.

The point I want to make here is that the so-called affordability crisis isn’t just about the cost of homes or other assets. It’s about the cost of money.

The Long-Term Cost of Denial

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In just the first two months of Fiscal Year 2026, the deficit already totals $458 billion — the second-largest start on record.

Cisco Hits An All-Time High

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

At the absolute peak of the dot-com boom — routers stacked to the ceiling and PowerPoint masquerading as profits — Cisco’s market capitalization topped out at roughly 4.4% of U.S. GDP.

Nvidia today? Roughly 16% of U.S. GDP.

That’s not a rounding error.

Measured against the size of the economy, Nvidia is in a category Cisco never visited. Which means that any serious disappointment in the AI build-out would scale 2000–01 – geometrically.

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.