Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

Today’s stock market enthusiasm is based in part on the expectation of ever-easier money for the balance of the decade. But can the Fed really deliver this in the face of soaring financial assets, off-the-charts speculation, and rising general inflation? Wouldn’t that spike inflation? Probably. So at some point in 2025 the Fed will have to stop lowering rates.

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Beneath the Surface

Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

John Rubino

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

crisis gold Inflation

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map

January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The “Donroe Doctrine,” the White House is calling… because Trump hasn’t yet stamped his name on every facet of U.S. political life.

America in the Americas. China in East Asia. Russia, where Russia still can.

There is a certain gangster logic to it. Not the UN Charter. Not the Magna Carta. More Godfather than Geneva.

Markets, predictably, shrugged.

Oil stocks rallied. Defense stocks jumped. Consultants booked flights to the oil fields near Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt.

Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map

New Year, New Record High

January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Interest rates are coming down, emboldening consumers to take on more debt.

The latest data highlights a central feature of the real economy. Americans no longer manage savings and income but credit cards, HELOCs, and mortgages in an effort to keep up appearances.

Day-to-day expenses, health insurance, housing, car payments and tuition will continue to plague Americans throughout the year ahead of going to the polls in November.

China Just Rewrote the Silver Story

January 8, 2026 • Lau Vegys

Roughly 70–80% of global silver supply comes as a byproduct of mining other metals—copper, lead, zinc, gold. This means that even if silver prices doubled tomorrow, production wouldn’t automatically increase unless mining of those other metals ramped up too. You can’t just “decide” to mine more silver.

Layer China’s export controls on top of all that, and you’re looking at a supply profile that’s unusually tight—and unusually vulnerable.

A Low-Stress Start to the Year

January 8, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”

Caracas and the Return of a Dusty Old Map

January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The “Donroe Doctrine,” the White House is calling… because Trump hasn’t yet stamped his name on every facet of U.S. political life.

America in the Americas. China in East Asia. Russia, where Russia still can.

There is a certain gangster logic to it. Not the UN Charter. Not the Magna Carta. More Godfather than Geneva.

Markets, predictably, shrugged.

Oil stocks rallied. Defense stocks jumped. Consultants booked flights to the oil fields near Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt.

New Year, New Record High

January 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Interest rates are coming down, emboldening consumers to take on more debt.

The latest data highlights a central feature of the real economy. Americans no longer manage savings and income but credit cards, HELOCs, and mortgages in an effort to keep up appearances.

Day-to-day expenses, health insurance, housing, car payments and tuition will continue to plague Americans throughout the year ahead of going to the polls in November.

China Just Rewrote the Silver Story

January 8, 2026 • Lau Vegys

Layer China’s export controls on top of all that, and you’re looking at a supply profile that’s unusually tight—and unusually vulnerable.

A Low-Stress Start to the Year

January 8, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”