Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

Today’s stock market enthusiasm is based in part on the expectation of ever-easier money for the balance of the decade. But can the Fed really deliver this in the face of soaring financial assets, off-the-charts speculation, and rising general inflation? Wouldn’t that spike inflation? Probably. So at some point in 2025 the Fed will have to stop lowering rates.

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Daily Missive

Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

John Rubino

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

crisis gold Inflation

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Matt Milner: Now You Can Buy SpaceX — Should You?

July 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

This new wave of tokenized shares is exciting. It has the potential to break down walls and democratize access to pre-IPO giants.

But at the moment, it’s also risky, opaque, and largely unregulated.

So while we applaud the innovation, we urge caution — especially if you’re being offered something that seems too good to be true.

Matt Milner: Now You Can Buy SpaceX — Should You?

Soaring Costs Are Ironically Tariff-Proofing the Economy

July 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Should we be concerned about the economy – much less the stock market – as President Trump heats up his tariff rhetoric?

Perhaps, tongue-in-cheek, we should first look at the data. Where are Americans spending their money these days – and how resilient is that spending in a world of higher tariffs?

The latest troubling trend shows that Americans are spending more on healthcare – often in the form of “insurance” that doesn’t insure against anything – than on necessities like food and housing:

Soaring Costs Are Ironically Tariff-Proofing the Economy

Nvidia’s Moon Landing Moment

July 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In 1969, Americans tuned in to watch a rocket land on the moon.

In 2025, we watched a chipmaker eclipse Exxon, Apple, and the Bank of England combined — and a copper tariff threaten to derail the next phase of the digital economy.

And a digital currency backed by energy sucking algos is challenging the once almighty dollar.

It’s a hell of a time to be an investor. Or a plumber.

Matt Milner: The Next Decade’s “Fantastic 40” Tech Stocks

July 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Even if you’re starting with just $100, you now have more ways than ever to access private markets.

Yes, risks are higher.

Yes, due diligence is incredibly important.

But for investors willing to look beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the rewards can be well worth it.

Matt Milner: The Next Decade’s “Fantastic 40” Tech Stocks