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Daily Missive

Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

Loading ...John Rubino

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read


crisisgoldInflation

Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

 

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

Today’s stock market enthusiasm is based in part on the expectation of ever-easier money for the balance of the decade. But can the Fed really deliver this in the face of soaring financial assets, off-the-charts speculation, and rising general inflation? Wouldn’t that spike inflation? Probably. So at some point in 2025 the Fed will have to stop lowering rates.

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.


Don’t Let Dilution Cost You Profits In Today’s Gold Rally

July 14, 2025 • Andrew Packer

Looking at your gold stock holdings with an eye to how much share dilution they’ve done is critical to your investment success.

Share dilution is real across any industry. But how shares are being diluted, and what they’re being diluted for matter.

In the resource space, that means paying close attention to the value of any announced acquisitions, the total shares outstanding, and how that company is performing relative to its underlying resource.

That can make the difference between a good investment, a middling investment, and a killer investment.

Don’t Let Dilution Cost You Profits In Today’s Gold Rally
Gold Stocks Are Starting to Outperform

July 14, 2025 • Andrew Packer

In 2023 and 2024, gold prices trended higher. That trend has continued this year, with gold prices rallying over 20%.

In prior years, gold mining companies have been conspicuously absent from that rally. But in 2025, they’re starting to move up – and at a faster pace than gold:

Gold mining stocks should perform better than gold during a rally. Why? Imagine a gold company has total cash costs of $1,500 per ounce.

At $2,500 gold, they make a profit of $1,000 per ounce. If gold rallies to $3,500, a 40% rally, the miner’s profit goes from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce – a 100% jump in profits.

That’s the power of investing in gold mining companies. Aside from the first half of 2016, this is the best setup for gold mining stocks since the early 2000s. It’s not too late to buy gold stocks if you haven’t done so yet.

Gold Stocks Are Starting to Outperform
A Commodity Supercycle Is Underway as Investors Seek the Truth

July 14, 2025 • Andrew Packer

Truth matters.

Free and fair money, whether measured in gold ounces or satoshis – a one-hundred-millionth of a bitcoin – can compel a governmental and political system to stay honest. Or at least within some rails.

Fiat currencies, which are determined by those same governments, provide unchecked power, including the ability to keep some in power despite clear abuses of it.

History shows time and again that it’s the power to destroy.

Public confidence has been hit with a one-two punch of hefty inflation the past few years, and a sense of a two-tiered justice system that projects those in power who were harming children.

In a time of rapidly-declining trust in traditional institutions, it’s more important than ever to make sure you hold gold and bitcoin.

I know I sound like a broken record – but every day, there’s about 3 billion more reasons to hold those assets. And that’s just the daily increase in America’s federal debt.

A Commodity Supercycle Is Underway as Investors Seek the Truth
Gold: The Only Thing Standing Still

July 11, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.

Gold: The Only Thing Standing Still