Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

Today’s stock market enthusiasm is based in part on the expectation of ever-easier money for the balance of the decade. But can the Fed really deliver this in the face of soaring financial assets, off-the-charts speculation, and rising general inflation? Wouldn’t that spike inflation? Probably. So at some point in 2025 the Fed will have to stop lowering rates.

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Beneath the Surface

Crash Alert: Priced for Perfection in an Imperfect World

John Rubino

December 12, 2024 • 51 second read

crisis gold Inflation

By John Rubino, John Rubino’s Substack

The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate:

Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record:

Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring popularity of leveraged ETFs:

And gold has shaken off its post-election correction and is now threatening its all-time-high:

Can the Fed keep easing into all this?

What happens then? Well, check the above P/E chart for what became of the last few priced-for-perfection markets.

Copper’s Clear Signal

August 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Market Crash Insurance Is Cheap

August 14, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Beware: Financial Innovation In AI

August 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

Signs of a Late-Stage Bull Market

August 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.