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Daily Missive

Cold War 2.0? Russia, China and the U.S. Clash Over Arctic Resources

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 27, 2025 • 5 minute, 56 second read


ChinaCold WarRussiaUS

Cold War 2.0? Russia, China and the U.S. Clash Over Arctic Resources

 

China’s just-released DeepSeek AI assistant may steal the thunder from U.S.-based platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT

January 27, 2025

Tech stocks are selling off sharply today, triggered by concerns that China’s just-released DeepSeek AI assistant may steal the thunder from U.S.-based platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Before this week, however, markets have been responding with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries.

The biggest winner so far was the automobile industry, led by Tesla, up an impressive 70% since Election Day as of Friday. General Motors, while not quite as flashy, was up about 5%. Despite President Donald Trump’s rollback of Biden-era electric vehicle (EV) mandates, Tesla has continued to command investor confidence, possibly due to Elon Musk’s close ties to the president.

Electricity producers also saw a boost, driven by the AI boom. Data centers, which currently consume 1-2% of global power, could grow to 3-4% by the end of the decade, according to Goldman Sachs.

And let’s not forget the airlines industry. United Airlines, up 33%, capitalized on record-breaking TSA screenings in 2024, operating its largest-ever domestic schedule and expanding international routes.

I also want to share the best performing industries for the five-day period as of last week, as President Trump has signed an historical number of executive orders (EOs) since taking office. The list includes many of the same areas—power generation, construction & engineering, consumer finance, retail—but there’s an interesting addition: industrial REITs.

The industrial REIT ticker is represented by a single stock, Prologis, the world’s largest industrial property developer. According to the Wall Street Journal, the company has seen its warehouse business explode since the election. It’s also been dipping its toes in the white-hot data center market, selling a facility in the fourth quarter, with more in the pipeline.

Why the Arctic Matters

But let’s pivot to a different story—one unfolding far from Wall Street. I recently spoke with Jonathan Roth, founder of ResourceWars.com and a veteran of capital markets, who highlighted an increasingly urgent issue: the Arctic.

As polar ice caps melt, new opportunities—and risks—are emerging in this increasingly contested region. Nations like the U.S., Russia and China are jockeying for influence, not only to access the Arctic’s vast natural resources but also to secure strategic military and trading advantages.

Greenland, in particular, is shaping up to be a geopolitical hotspot, and it’s no wonder that Trump has repeated his interest in acquiring the island.

A Treasure Trove Beneath the Ice

During our conversation, Jonathan emphasized the Arctic’s immense resource wealth. The region is home to some of the world’s largest untapped reserves of natural resources. A 2008 study by the U.S. Geological Survey says that the Arctic holds 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and other fuels—equivalent to Russia’s entire oil reserves and three times those of the U.S.

Greenland, the world’s largest island that isn’t a continent, is rich in critical minerals essential for modern technologies, including rare earth metals, graphite, niobium and titanium. These materials are vital for everything from smartphones to EVs to military hardware.

Ice loss in the Danish territory has also exposed significant deposits of lithium, hafnium, uranium and gold. A 2023 survey by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland evaluated 38 raw materials on the island, most of which have high or moderate potential.

Russia’s Arctic Ambitions

Jonathan also pointed out that Russia has been quietly building its Arctic presence for over a decade. It now has the most significant military presence in the region, with refurbished Soviet-era bases and a fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers.

In 2024, some 38 million metric tons of cargo were shipped through Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR), a record amount for a single year and a nearly tenfold increase from a decade earlier. The NSR is central to President Vladimir Putin’s vision of a shipping lane that rivals the Suez and Panama Canal, but challenges like shallow, ice-filled waters and foggy conditions mean the route has a long way to go before becoming a global sea lane.

The country’s Arctic ambitions are about more than just trade. The region is a cornerstone of its strategy to secure military and economic power. This poses a significant concern for the U.S. and its allies, especially as climate change accelerates ice melt and opens up new access routes. Russia’s dominance in the Arctic could disrupt global trade, heighten geopolitical tensions and undermine U.S. strategic interests.

The U.S. Lags in Icebreaker Capabilities

While Russia boasts dozens of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered vessels, the U.S. is woefully behind. Jonathan highlighted that the last heavy polar icebreaker built by the U.S., the Polar Star, was commissioned nearly 50 years ago, in 1976. Meanwhile, the newer Polar Security Cutter (PSC) class of icebreakers, intended to bolster U.S. capabilities, has faced years of delays and budget overruns.

While Russia boasts dozens of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered vessels, the U.S. is woefully behind. Jonathan highlighted that the last heavy polar icebreaker built by the U.S., the Polar Star, was commissioned nearly 50 years ago, in 1976. Meanwhile, the newer Polar Security Cutter (PSC) class of icebreakers, intended to bolster U.S. capabilities, has faced years of delays and budget overruns.

Recognizing this, the U.S. has partnered with Canada and Finland under the ICE Pact to develop a new generation of icebreakers. Finland, which designs 80% of the world’s icebreakers, brings valuable expertise to the table.

Greenland: A Strategic Prize

Greenland’s importance extends beyond its resource wealth. Jonathan noted the island occupies a key position along two potential Arctic shipping routes—the Northwest Passage and the Transpolar Sea Route. As sea ice continues to melt, these routes could significantly reduce shipping times and bypass traditional chokepoints like the Suez and Panama Canals.

Greenland is also home to Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), a critical U.S. military installation for missile early warning and space surveillance. The base’s strategic value is compounded by Greenland’s role in the so-called GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom)—a naval chokepoint in the North Atlantic.

Investment in Pituffik has been inconsistent, however, and its importance has waned since the Cold War. Renewed attention to Greenland could help the U.S. counter Russia’s growing Arctic dominance and China’s ambitions as a “near-Arctic” power.

What’s at Stake

The Arctic’s significance isn’t just about resources or shipping lanes. It’s about power, influence and the ability to shape the future of global trade and security.

For investors, the region offers opportunities in sectors like energy, mining and infrastructure. Companies involved in rare earth mining, icebreaker construction and Arctic logistics could see significant growth as nations ramp up their Arctic investments.

As always, investors should keep a close eye on these developments. The Arctic may be cold, but the race for its riches is heating up.

To watch my full interview with Jonathan Roth, click here!

Happy Investing,

U.S. Global Investors

The Ghost of Bastiat

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By then the receipts on my desk had arranged themselves into a sort of chorus. I heard, faintly, another refrain—one from Kentucky. In the first days of the shutdown, Senator Rand Paul stood alone among Republicans and voted against his party’s stopgap, telling interviewers that the numbers “don’t add up” and that he would not sign on to another year that piles $2 trillion onto the debt.

That, I realized, is what the tariff story shares with the broader budget theater: the habit of calling a tax something else, of shifting burdens into the fog and then celebrating the silhouette as victory. Even the vote tally made the point: he was the only Republican “no,” a lonely arithmetic lesson in a crowded room.

The Ghost of Bastiat
The Dollar’s Long Goodbye

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Senator Rand Paul, (R. KY), who was the sole Republican to vote against a continuing resolution, seems to care about the actual finances of the government. “I would never vote for a bill that added $2 trillion in national debt,” Paul said in various interviews over the weekend.

The $2 trillion he’s referring to is the lesser of two proposals made by the national parties… and would accrue during this next fiscal year.

Oy.

We liked what Liz Wolfe at Reason wrote on Friday, so we’ll repeat it here: “One of the dirty little secrets of every shutdown is that everything remains mostly fine. Private markets could easily replace many federal functions.”

It’s a strange kind of confidence — one where Wall Street soars while Washington goes dark.

The Dollar’s Long Goodbye
A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade

October 6, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The Liberal Democratic Party victory has sent Japanese stocks soaring, as party President Sanae Takaichi – now set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister – is a proponent of stimulus spending, and a China hawk. The electoral win is a vote to keep the yen carry trade alive… and well.

The “yen carry trade” is a currency trading strategy. By borrowing Japanese yen at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets, investors have profited from the interest rate differential. Yen carry trades have played a huge role in global liquidity for decades.

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade
Beware: The Permanent Underclass

October 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in the Global Financial Crisis (2008), we recall mass layoffs were driving desperation.

Today, unemployment is relatively low, if climbing.

Affordability is much more of an issue. Food, rent, healthcare, and childcare are all rising faster than wages. Households aren’t jobless; they’re stretched. Job “quits” are at crisis-level lows.

In addition to the top 10% of earners, consumer spending is still strong. Not necessarily because of prosperity, but because households are taking extra shifts, hustling gigs, working late into the night, and using credit cards. The trends hold up demand but hollow out savings.

It’s the quiet form of financial repression. In an era of fiscal dominance, savers see easy returns clipped, workers stretch hours just to stay even, and wealth slips upward into assets while daily life grows harder to afford.

Beware: The Permanent Underclass