China’s National Development and Reform Commission told its largest refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as Persian Gulf flows faltered.
PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem, and Zhejiang Petrochemical were instructed to halt new contracts and renegotiate existing shipments. Jet fuel and bunker fuel in bonded storage received limited exemptions.
In normal times, the Chinese operate a quota system for refined product exports; this week, the throttle tightened. And even though they are Asia’s third-largest exporters of “energy,” the country still draws close to half its imported crude from the Gulf, including nearly all Iranian shipments.
With traffic through Hormuz slowing and insurers recalculating risk, the central planners in Beijing chose domestic stability over external sales. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan, India, and Indonesia have also trimmed refinery runs. Apparently, when tankers hesitate, bureaucrats start rationing.
We have to admit up front today: Because of the military buildup, we 100% expected Trump and Netanyahu to carry out their threats against Iran while talks were still underway in Geneva last week.
What we didn’t expect was the deep dive into global energy markets we’ve now engaged in to see what the knock-on effects of what one commentator on X called a “global energy coup” yesterday.
The attack on Iran has shuffled the natural resource, precious metals, rare earth and energy deck, globally.
🛢️ Hormuz Reprices Oil and Energy Markets
Strikes on Iranian infrastructure and reported damage near Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery pushed Brent above $84, up more than 12% in the past week. The national average for a gallon of gas in the U.S. rose 10 cents.
QatarEnergy paused production. Roughly 20% of global oil and a material share of LNG is normally shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s copper, zinc, and iron ore output sits within a wider mineral ecosystem already strained. Rare-earth supply chains remain intact for now, though refiners and defense planners are watching closely.
Despite assurances from the Trump administration, shipping insurers have raised premiums or stopped offering them.
Large vessels are being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.
This fact alone is worth a mention: Rerouting shipping traffic away from the Middle East – specifically the Red Sea/Suez Canal route – around the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 3,000 to 6,000 nautical miles to a journey, depending on the origin and destination.
This detour typically adds 10 to 15 days — and sometimes up to 2–4 weeks — to transit times for ships moving between Asia and Europe.
And with it, shipping prices are soaring:
Shipping prices are soaring, which in turn will create inflationary pressures on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)
War planners are telling us the chokepoints and price hikes are temporary.
What’s more interesting is how the post-Iran take-down trade deals will reshape markets altogether.
Side note: ** Even the Federal Reserve now faces a narrower path: energy-driven price hikes are colliding with the political pressure to cut interest rates. Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh’s name to replace Jerome Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve yesterday. (More details when we stop obsessing over resources and energy markets.)
🤝 Riyadh, Washington, and Miami
On November 18, President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman formalized a defense agreement that included F-35 sales and a $1 trillion investment partnership spanning AI, technology, and energy.
Discussions on rare-earth collaboration and nuclear energy accompanied the deal.
As has been the implied Saudi support for the 50-year petrodollar, which has allowed the U.S. dollar to maintain its status as the reserve currency of the Western banking system.
We looked beneath the hood on the Trump-MBS grand bargain in Monday‘s Swan Dive.
Later this month, on March 25-27, 2026, the Saudi Public Investment Fund will convene the FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach under the banner “Capital in Motion.”
Yasir Al-Rumayyan hosts.
President Trump spoke at this event last year. He’s expected to deliver a keynote address on the second day of the event this year.
The meeting is more than a symbolic gesture. In fact, we suspect the FII Priority summit will have even more bearing on global trade routes and the digital monetary architecture than the President’s formal visit to Xi Jinping a week later in Beijing.
The Iran conflagration will be over a month old by the time the summit commences.
🪙 Venezuela Also Has a Lot of Gold
Venezuela’s state miner, Minerven, signed a deal to deliver 650–1,000 kilograms of 98% gold doré to Trafigura, with the metal to be shipped to U.S. refineries under federal supervision.
At roughly $166,000 per kilo, the shipment approaches the nine-figure mark.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum traveled to Caracas to advance parallel oil and mineral discussions after Nicolás Maduro’s January removal, while Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez announced mining-law reforms following their meeting.
Trafigura already oversees more than $1 billion in oil contracts tied to the same reset.
The material fact: gold that once cleared through even more opaque routes than the Iranian shadow fleet for oil now settles inside regulated ones that the gold market will have eyes on.
Golden rule addendum: He who controls the gold routing captures the margin.
🌴 Cuba’s Next…
Secretary of State Marco Rubio opened discussions with Raul Guillermo Rodríguez Castro — “Raulito,” known in political circles as “El Cangrejo” — sidestepping Cuba’s formal government apparatus.
The island’s grid fails intermittently; hospitals ration surgeries; tourism shrinks; fuel supplies run thin.
After Nicolás Maduro’s January seizure and the loss of subsidized Venezuelan oil, Havana’s fiscal margin narrowed.
Rubio frames the talks around future options, while President Trump concentrates on Iran and Ukraine. Our own source on the opening in Cuba suggests that it was another grand bargain, this one made domestically.
Rubio agreed to back Trump for president early in 2024 and accept the Secretary of State job if he could personally represent the interests of the Cuban expat community from Miami.
The Trump administration’s decision to leave select Venezuelan officials in place signals a preference for managed transition over institutional collapse. But in Havana, even a modest increase in fuel access alters leverage.
🧭 Where The Pressure Concentrates
Let’s review:
China tightens export quotas to preserve domestic fuel. Hormuz is constraining Brent Crude and shipping prices. Saudi capital courts U.S. technology and defense ecosystems; promises to support Dollar 2.0 digital assets. Venezuelan gold enters U.S. refineries. Cuban backchannels open, quietly.
The Iran floodgates make writing a financial newsletter even more intriguing.
The events of the past week have significantly increased the likelihood of multiple Grey Swan events – many to the positive side – before the U.S. enters the wack-o political season leading up to this year’s midterms.
Each movement we looked at today opens a new set of questions: who controls throughput, who absorbs premium, who secures supply, who loses leverage?
As always, when the tide runs fast, you secure loose cargo and keep your bow pointed straight. Today’s deals are getting written in rooms without cameras. The best you can do right now is keep a sharp grip on your own wallet.
Sign Off ~ Addison
P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns today, at 2 p.m. ET.
John Robb, author of Brave New War and Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor, joins us for a discussion on the war with Iran, how it’s being fought, and what it means for the dollar and other assets. It will also be an opportunity to further delve into how these moves impact countries such as China.
With market volatility on the rise and a new set of global challenges arising from this conflict, you won’t want to miss out on this week’s Grey Swan Live!
Robb’s expertise on network warfare is central to understanding the Trump strategy for disrupting operations by killing 40 top Iranian leaders. In a globally connected tech economy in the 21st century, the strategies and weapons of warfare are evolving rapidly.
If you’re not yet a member, click here to sign up and join the fraternity today so you can make it to Thursday’s call.
