Bitcoin’s Leading the Way

Bitcoin fell way off its peaks back in October alongside the first debates over CLARITY Act regulation in the U.S. Senate.

Crypto companies as a block traded down with Bitcoin.

Investors in crypto are no strangers to volatility. And now, after 5 months of anguish, the fund flow data shows they’re testing the waters again:

Despite another challenging week for retail investors, flows to bitcoin ETFs suggest some are buying that dip. (Source: Duality Research)

Bitcoin broke to a new one-month high earlier this week, just as fears of resurgent inflation and rising oil prices took hold.

Over the long-term, investors buying the dip now will see some great returns, particularly once the Clarity Act establishes the guardrails for “rewards” crypto can legally pay.

The crypto infrastructure plays behind our Dollar 2.0 thesis are waiting patiently for the Clarity Act to hit the floor of the Senate for a vote.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday on Grey Swan Live!, our natural-resources specialist, Shad Marquitz, provided a prescient look at gold and oil price volatility; the “whack-a-mole” trading environment set in motion by the war in Iran.

Shad systematically covered the mosaic of natural resource opportunities in oil, LNG, antimony, tungsten and precious metals following the Iran bombing excursion.

We’re in the middle of an active shooting war in the Persian Gulf … Oil has surged. Gasoline and diesel prices are spiking…

And yet, the stock market is only slowly rolling over. And gold – typically a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty – is bucking expectations with a sell-off.

Shad brought the receipts – and a list of smaller-cap companies that look promising across the commodity space now.

Click here to sign up for the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity if you’re not a member yet to get this latest insight – the replay is up on our site now.

Bitcoin fell way off its peaks back in October alongside the first debates over CLARITY Act regulation in the U.S. Senate.

Crypto companies as a block traded down with Bitcoin.

Investors in crypto are no strangers to volatility. And now, after 5 months of anguish, the fund flow data shows they’re testing the waters again:

Despite another challenging week for retail investors, flows to bitcoin ETFs suggest some are buying that dip. (Source: Duality Research)

Bitcoin broke to a new one-month high earlier this week, just as fears of resurgent inflation and rising oil prices took hold.

Over the long-term, investors buying the dip now will see some great returns, particularly once the Clarity Act establishes the guardrails for “rewards” crypto can legally pay.

The crypto infrastructure plays behind our Dollar 2.0 thesis are waiting patiently for the Clarity Act to hit the floor of the Senate for a vote.

~ Addison

Shad systematically covered the mosaic of natural resource opportunities in oil, LNG, antimony, tungsten and precious metals following the Iran bombing excursion.

We’re in the middle of an active shooting war in the Persian Gulf … Oil has surged. Gasoline and diesel prices are spiking…

And yet, the stock market is only slowly rolling over. And gold – typically a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty – is bucking expectations with a sell-off.

Shad brought the receipts – and a list of smaller-cap companies that look promising across the commodity space now.

Click here to sign up for the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity if you’re not a member yet to get this latest insight – the replay is up on our site now.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.