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Seven Grey Swans a Swimmin’ in 2025: #6 Involves America’s Banks

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December 24, 20244 minute, 7 second read



Seven Grey Swans a Swimmin’ in 2025: #6 Involves America’s Banks

“You’re thinking of this place all wrong as if I had the money back in the safe. The money is not here. Your money is in Joe’s house, right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin’s house, and a hundred others…”

–George Bailey (Jimmy Stewart), It’s a Wonderful Life


December 24, 2024— American life has gotten more complex since the 1946 holiday classic It’s a Wonderful Life.

Indeed, your small-town bank or savings and loan may primarily be in the business of 3-6-3 lending. That’s where a banker gives its depositors a 3% interest rate, lends out at 6%, pocketing the spread, and closes at 3 p.m. to hit the golf course.

But 21st-century America is far more complex. Banks engage in far riskier behavior. In 2023, for instance, we learned that banks could go bankrupt from investing in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Remember, by definition, U.S. Treasury bonds are considered the only truly “risk-free” investment.

But that’s clearly not the case. Rapidly rising interest rates in 2022 meant that longer-dated Treasury bonds dropped significantly to match those higher rates.

So when Silicon Valley Bank needed to sell its bonds for liquidity, it turned paper losses into real ones, kicking off the second, third, and fourth-largest bank failures in U.S. history.

The Fed stepped in, offering to buy those bonds at their par value. This is part of our next Grey Swan event…

Grey Swan #6: The Gradual “Nationalization” of America’s Banking System

We’re watching the slow-motion nationalization of our banking system.

From problem banks to presidential overreach.

From digital currencies to massive repo operations – I believe it all points to a government preparing to take total control of our financial lives.

But here’s the kicker – they won’t call it nationalization.

Oh no, they’re far too clever for that.

They’ll dress it up as “stability measures” or “consumer protection.” That’s what they did when they started overpaying for Treasury bonds from banks in 2023.

While that move kicked the can down the road, it left more risk on the Fed’s balance sheet at the expense of avoiding a bigger banking crisis.

When the banking system gets into a crisis, things can be changed on a dime. Contracts can be ripped up. And bankers will tell you it’s for your own good, that it’s necessary to prevent another financial crisis.

But make no mistake, once the government has its fingers in the banking pie, your financial freedom will never be the same.

Let’s take a moment to consider the broader implications of this financial power grab.

The U.S. dollar, long the world’s reserve currency, is under threat like never before.

Our national debt has exploded to over $36 trillion, more than triple what it was just 15 years ago.

And what’s the result of all this fiscal irresponsibility? Inflation.

We’re seeing a banking system that’s increasingly fragile, propped up by government interventions and easy money policies.

As Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor Mark Jeftovic notes:

Treasury yields seem to have gone the wrong direction after the Fed cut in September – and a half-point one at that. Here’s a visual depiction of the anomaly:

Turn Your Images On

It’s clear that the bond market doesn’t like what’s happening in the economy right now.

And it’s urgent you take measures to shield yourself from another crisis. That’s why we continue to like gold, for its long-term stability against inflation. And why bitcoin, which is far more volatile, could still make sense as a small part of your investment portfolio.

Going into 2025 and the possibility of a banking crisis, it’s important to ensure that you’re not overexposed to bank stocks. And that you keep your cash in the bank under the FDIC insurance maximum of $250,000.

We’re carefully watching the banking sector for signs of stress in the new year, especially as interest rates are adjusting to stay higher for longer.

Regards,


Addison Wiggin,
Grey Swan

P.S.  Panic hit the banking world in March 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank went belly-up after a catastrophic bank run. Like dominoes, Signature Bank toppled next, and Credit Suisse got scooped up by UBS in a fire sale. Regulators swooped in with emergency fixes to stop the financial world from melting down.

We were covering the event in real-time with live seminars. Our premise goes back to the days of It’s A Wonderful Life and Garet Garrett’s Anatomy of a Bubble in which he outlines the successive banking crises that followed the Roaring ‘20s and the aftermath of the stock market crash in 1929.

In a crisis, as we also saw in 2008, banks go first. The Fed’s balance sheet is negative now… so we’re keen to see what happens to banks after the current Wall Street fixation with Superchips finds its own pin.

Your thoughts on the top Grey Swan events of 2025 are welcome here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com.


DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common

September 18, 2025Adam O'Dell

Sometimes, a compelling market trend flashes like a neon sign on the Vegas strip.

We’ve seen that a lot with mega trends like artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Just last week, Oracle was rewarded with a 40% post-earnings pop in its stock price after a strong earnings outlook for its AI cloud business.

Other times, you’ve got to do a little work to find out what’s driving a stock’s price higher. And my “New Bulls” list each week is a great place to start.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common
The Carrot and The Stick

September 18, 2025Addison Wiggin

Incentives grow markets. Regulation stunts their fragile bones.

The Fed’s rate cuts are carrots. Markets are feasting on them. Over in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer added a long trade in the commodity market – in a small-cap player, producing a commodity domestically.

As a cherry on top, it might be the next MP Materials or Intel and get explicit government backing, which could really cause shares to take off.

Trump’s threats to the Fed, or the FCC’s jawboning of broadcasters, are sticks. Investors must decide which matters more.

As one market veteran told The Wall Street Journal: “Cheaper money is a carrot. But the bigger question is whether trust in our institutions can hold. Without that, the carrots won’t matter.”

The Carrot and The Stick
Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights

September 18, 2025Addison Wiggin

If you follow technical indicators, the Nasdaq — a broad measure of tech stocks — is now “extremely overbought”… a level only seen in 0.4% of its history.

That’s less than half a percent, and it is likely the precursor to a correction when traders decide to take profits.

Our advice, “panic now, avoid the rush” and rotate your tech into hard assets such as gold , bitcoin, and commodities in general.

Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights
Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

September 17, 2025Addison Wiggin

As time unfolds, the US federal government’s tentacles burrow ever-deeper into the economy. In the 2008 crisis, banks deemed “too big to fail” received a government bailout. The following year, automobile firms GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. When the Treasury exited GM in 2013, taxpayers were left with a loss of more than $10 billion. Ten years later, the federal government forbade Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, in a merger they both desired. Instead, the government settled for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel alongside its own direct ownership of the firm via a “golden share.” Just this past week, the US federal government announced its 10 percent stake in Intel, the struggling US semiconductor giant. On top of the $7 billion Intel had already received from the 2024 CHIPS Act, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Intel “America’s champion semiconductor company.”

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?