Swan Dive

How to Ruin a Business Without Really Trying

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 18, 20254 minute, 3 second read



How to Ruin a Business Without Really Trying

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation, and five minutes to ruin it,” Warren Buffett once warned.

Perhaps that’s why social media has been flooded with news headlines, coverage, and memes since Wednesday night.

That’s when the CEO of a tech startup called Astronomer was caught on the jumbotron camera at a Coldplay concert, enjoying what looked like an intimate moment with what appeared to be the company’s HR manager.

Not present? Their respective spouses.

Astronomer is one of many unicorn companies today. It’s privately held and valued at over $1 billion.

That means there are dozens of investors, from angel investors to hedge funds, who put their capital – and their reputation – on the line to invest.

The latest filing notes that Astronomer has about 370 employees.

Today, that’s all in jeopardy. The damage done to the company by the actions of two of its key employees is all that it took.

Turn Your Images On

Imagine finding out that your spouse is either cheating on you… or, worse – they’re a Coldplay fan.

It’s most likely that the event, which became a social media storm on top of all the other drama this week, will blow over. The CEO and HR manager will likely be allowed to step down.

The company will likely move on. But even as this viral moment fades into memory, the impact may endure for years – with future investors being more hesitant to invest.

Management: A Make-or-Break Factor In Investment Success

Management is just one facet of any investment decision.

But it’s a challenging one because it doesn’t appear on the balance sheet. It requires a deeper dive beyond the numbers.

Chances are, if you’re a momentum trader, you just watch the price and buy as long as it’s been going up.

Value investors look to determine the total sum of a company’s assets and discounted future earnings, and look to buy at a discount to that figure.

Most likely, you’re somewhere in between. You own some value plays. You trade some momentum stocks. Life is good.

But every once in a while, you’ll run into the Enrons of the world – the companies whose behavior leads to a material risk to your investment.

Sure, it helps to be diversified.

But at the end of the day what really matters is management.

Ultimately, a company CEO has obligations beyond making decisions in boardrooms. They need to behave in a way that reflects well for the company that they run 24/7. They need to do the right thing, even when nobody is looking.

We used to have a word for that. It’s called integrity.

Build Your Community With Integrity

Integrity is in short supply today.

Corporate CEOs have to chase quarterly results, and the temptation to cut corners is great. We’ll see that play out with earnings season over the next few weeks – look for companies with a suspicious number of “one-time” events – chances are they aren’t one-time.

Members of Congress use the information they get from committee meetings during their part-time hours to substantially outperform the stock market. Until that’s fixed with clearer legislation and term limits, at least investors can follow along, albeit belatedly.

Families are working harder and harder to make ends meet, having their purchasing power eroded by inflation, and by the machinations of a central bank concerned with propping up asset prices, not wages.

It’s tough. I get it. But that’s also why it’s worthwhile. The road less taken is a more challenging one, but a more satisfying one.

This is why it’s crucial as an investor to look at who you’re investing with. Someone with a good idea and integrity will help you grow your wealth far more than someone with a great idea but who has no integrity.

And why it’s important to keep some of your wealth in honest forms of money like gold and, yes, bitcoin.

And there’s another theme here as well: The truth. It always comes out. Not always on the jumbotron, or on the front page of a national newspaper. But if you always live your life under the assumption that anything you do will be headline news – or the darling of social media – you’ll focus on the positive ways that can turn out.

~ Andrew

P.S. Integrity, trust, truth – themes we’ve touched on this week as we look at the unfolding news – are qualities always worth watching.

Issues of corporate governance – and wild stories about CEOs and management teams running amok – aren’t unusual.

In fact, real-world examples of corporate malfeasance have become inspirational for the series of novels that I’ve written. But what happened at that Coldplay concert this week sounds stranger than fiction.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com


DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common

September 18, 2025Adam O'Dell

Sometimes, a compelling market trend flashes like a neon sign on the Vegas strip.

We’ve seen that a lot with mega trends like artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Just last week, Oracle was rewarded with a 40% post-earnings pop in its stock price after a strong earnings outlook for its AI cloud business.

Other times, you’ve got to do a little work to find out what’s driving a stock’s price higher. And my “New Bulls” list each week is a great place to start.

DASH and LOW Stock Have One Key Thing In Common
The Carrot and The Stick

September 18, 2025Addison Wiggin

Incentives grow markets. Regulation stunts their fragile bones.

The Fed’s rate cuts are carrots. Markets are feasting on them. Over in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer added a long trade in the commodity market – in a small-cap player, producing a commodity domestically.

As a cherry on top, it might be the next MP Materials or Intel and get explicit government backing, which could really cause shares to take off.

Trump’s threats to the Fed, or the FCC’s jawboning of broadcasters, are sticks. Investors must decide which matters more.

As one market veteran told The Wall Street Journal: “Cheaper money is a carrot. But the bigger question is whether trust in our institutions can hold. Without that, the carrots won’t matter.”

The Carrot and The Stick
Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights

September 18, 2025Addison Wiggin

If you follow technical indicators, the Nasdaq — a broad measure of tech stocks — is now “extremely overbought”… a level only seen in 0.4% of its history.

That’s less than half a percent, and it is likely the precursor to a correction when traders decide to take profits.

Our advice, “panic now, avoid the rush” and rotate your tech into hard assets such as gold , bitcoin, and commodities in general.

Nasdaq Enters Nosebleed Heights
Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

September 17, 2025Addison Wiggin

As time unfolds, the US federal government’s tentacles burrow ever-deeper into the economy. In the 2008 crisis, banks deemed “too big to fail” received a government bailout. The following year, automobile firms GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. When the Treasury exited GM in 2013, taxpayers were left with a loss of more than $10 billion. Ten years later, the federal government forbade Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, in a merger they both desired. Instead, the government settled for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel alongside its own direct ownership of the firm via a “golden share.” Just this past week, the US federal government announced its 10 percent stake in Intel, the struggling US semiconductor giant. On top of the $7 billion Intel had already received from the 2024 CHIPS Act, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Intel “America’s champion semiconductor company.”

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?