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Ripple Effect

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 18, 2025 • 1 minute, 14 second read


Labor Marketsecond jobs

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

The labor market continues to show strength.

That reflects a vibrant private sector, albeit one that is still processing tariff uncertainty. It also reflects the fact that President Trump’s government cuts haven’t shown up yet in the employment data.

But there’s another trend – one that shows some economic uncertainty right now: A soaring population of people holding second jobs.

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The number of Americans holding down two jobs has soared to a record high.

The 8.87 million Americans holding second jobs likely fall into two groups. The first are those who work a second job by choice – the so-called “side gig.”

The second group? Those who are struggling economically.

Given that the cumulative inflation of the past five years has topped 25% by the government’s own numbers, and that wages haven’t increased that much, the second category indicates a strain by American workers right now.

It’s another yellow flag that the economy isn’t in a sustainable trend – but we likely have more upside in the stock market before things get worse.

~ Andrew

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. As long as inflation doesn’t surge significantly higher in the coming months, there’s a chance things could get better for consumers.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


How to Ruin a Business Without Really Trying

July 18, 2025 • Andrew Packer

It’s crucial as an investor to look at who you’re investing with. Someone with a good idea and integrity will help you grow your wealth far more than someone with a great idea but who has no integrity.

And why it’s important to keep some of your wealth in honest forms of money like gold and, yes, bitcoin.

And there’s another theme here as well: The truth. It always comes out. Not always on the jumbotron, or on the front page of a national newspaper. But if you always live your life under the assumption that anything you do will be headline news – or the darling of social media – you’ll focus on the positive ways that can turn out.

How to Ruin a Business Without Really Trying
A Week of Marvels

July 17, 2025 • Bill Bonner

First the marvels. We had thought the trade wars were happily resting in their graves. But last week, they rose up again…ghoulish and ghastly.

After the ‘reciprocal’ tariff program was abandoned, the administration’s top quack economist, Peter Navarro, had promised ‘90 deals in 90 days.’ And so, the trade negotiators went to work. But after three months, there were only three deals done. One of them was with the UK, with which we had a trade surplus…and the other two — with China and Vietnam — are fishy and probably won’t stick.

A Week of Marvels
The Biggest Threat to Today’s Rising Markets

July 17, 2025 • Andrew Packer

With bond yields back to 5%, and with markets showing signs of concern over the potential replacement of Jerome Powell at the Fed before his term ends, the bond market isn’t quite in full revolt.

But it’s trending in that direction. And investors may find that in times of rising illiquidity, increasing your own personal liquidity by raising cash may be the prudent move.

The Biggest Threat to Today’s Rising Markets
The Bond Market Intervenes In Real Time

July 17, 2025 • Andrew Packer

In real time Wednesday, as the President floated the idea of firing Powell, markets collapsed, especially the bond market.

The 30-year bond yield jumped to 5.1%. Deutsche Bank released a report that firing Powell would lead to a collapse in confidence in the U.S. bond market.

Remember, strong confidence matters. It’s a factor that keeps buyers coming and keeps yields down.

So, Trump did another TACO trade and quickly stated that there were no plans to fire Powell. Stocks levitated higher to close the day.

The Bond Market Intervenes In Real Time