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Ripple Effect

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 18, 2025 • 1 minute, 14 second read


Labor Marketsecond jobs

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

The labor market continues to show strength.

That reflects a vibrant private sector, albeit one that is still processing tariff uncertainty. It also reflects the fact that President Trump’s government cuts haven’t shown up yet in the employment data.

But there’s another trend – one that shows some economic uncertainty right now: A soaring population of people holding second jobs.

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The number of Americans holding down two jobs has soared to a record high.

The 8.87 million Americans holding second jobs likely fall into two groups. The first are those who work a second job by choice – the so-called “side gig.”

The second group? Those who are struggling economically.

Given that the cumulative inflation of the past five years has topped 25% by the government’s own numbers, and that wages haven’t increased that much, the second category indicates a strain by American workers right now.

It’s another yellow flag that the economy isn’t in a sustainable trend – but we likely have more upside in the stock market before things get worse.

~ Andrew

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. As long as inflation doesn’t surge significantly higher in the coming months, there’s a chance things could get better for consumers.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity
Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House

December 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the socialist agenda lands, the reaction matters as much as the results of the initial vote.

A hostile House gridlocks legislation. Investigations proliferate. Impeachment chatter returns. Executive authority stretches to compensate.

The political goal of the reactionary strategist will be to muck up the Trump realignment as much as possible to regain power in the House, the Senate (eventually), fortify the courts and ultimately take back the Oval Office. 

Trump will not face a midterm defeat like past lame-duck presidents. We’ll see a host of creative efforts to assert executive authority and override the people’s House. The checks and balances bestowed by Montesquieu at the very root of the Republic will be tested as never before.

Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House
Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America
Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy