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Ripple Effect

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 18, 2025 • 1 minute, 14 second read


Labor Marketsecond jobs

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

The labor market continues to show strength.

That reflects a vibrant private sector, albeit one that is still processing tariff uncertainty. It also reflects the fact that President Trump’s government cuts haven’t shown up yet in the employment data.

But there’s another trend – one that shows some economic uncertainty right now: A soaring population of people holding second jobs.

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The number of Americans holding down two jobs has soared to a record high.

The 8.87 million Americans holding second jobs likely fall into two groups. The first are those who work a second job by choice – the so-called “side gig.”

The second group? Those who are struggling economically.

Given that the cumulative inflation of the past five years has topped 25% by the government’s own numbers, and that wages haven’t increased that much, the second category indicates a strain by American workers right now.

It’s another yellow flag that the economy isn’t in a sustainable trend – but we likely have more upside in the stock market before things get worse.

~ Andrew

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. As long as inflation doesn’t surge significantly higher in the coming months, there’s a chance things could get better for consumers.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


How To Know When It’s the Top

October 31, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

How To Know When It’s the Top
Things You Cannot Unsee

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt. 

Things You Cannot Unsee
1998, Redux

October 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.

1998, Redux
Socialism Whacked

October 30, 2025 • Bill Bonner

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

Socialism Whacked