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Ripple Effect

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 18, 2025 • 1 minute, 14 second read


Labor Marketsecond jobs

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

The labor market continues to show strength.

That reflects a vibrant private sector, albeit one that is still processing tariff uncertainty. It also reflects the fact that President Trump’s government cuts haven’t shown up yet in the employment data.

But there’s another trend – one that shows some economic uncertainty right now: A soaring population of people holding second jobs.

Turn Your Images On

The number of Americans holding down two jobs has soared to a record high.

The 8.87 million Americans holding second jobs likely fall into two groups. The first are those who work a second job by choice – the so-called “side gig.”

The second group? Those who are struggling economically.

Given that the cumulative inflation of the past five years has topped 25% by the government’s own numbers, and that wages haven’t increased that much, the second category indicates a strain by American workers right now.

It’s another yellow flag that the economy isn’t in a sustainable trend – but we likely have more upside in the stock market before things get worse.

~ Andrew

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. As long as inflation doesn’t surge significantly higher in the coming months, there’s a chance things could get better for consumers.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

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Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You