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Ripple Effect

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

Loading ...Andrew Packer

July 18, 2025 • 1 minute, 14 second read


Labor Marketsecond jobs

The Hidden Crack In the Labor Market

The labor market continues to show strength.

That reflects a vibrant private sector, albeit one that is still processing tariff uncertainty. It also reflects the fact that President Trump’s government cuts haven’t shown up yet in the employment data.

But there’s another trend – one that shows some economic uncertainty right now: A soaring population of people holding second jobs.

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The number of Americans holding down two jobs has soared to a record high.

The 8.87 million Americans holding second jobs likely fall into two groups. The first are those who work a second job by choice – the so-called “side gig.”

The second group? Those who are struggling economically.

Given that the cumulative inflation of the past five years has topped 25% by the government’s own numbers, and that wages haven’t increased that much, the second category indicates a strain by American workers right now.

It’s another yellow flag that the economy isn’t in a sustainable trend – but we likely have more upside in the stock market before things get worse.

~ Andrew

P.S. Part of President Trump’s Great Reset plan is to increase private sector jobs in America. But that trend will also take time to play out. As long as inflation doesn’t surge significantly higher in the coming months, there’s a chance things could get better for consumers.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


Socialist Economics 101

August 28, 2025 • Lau Vegys

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

Socialist Economics 101
Nvidia, Buybacks, and the Market’s Blind Faith

August 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s hardly a secret that the national debt has surpassed $37 trillion.

This morning, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, released a survey showing 79% of Americans say they are deeply concerned about the fiscal outlook, across party lines. The Fiscal Confidence Index sits at 49 — well below neutral.

The public sees what the market ignores: pressure on interest rates, inflation risk, and a government living beyond its means.

Nvidia, Buybacks, and the Market’s Blind Faith
Andrew Zatlin: Time for an AI Pause?

August 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Yes,  growth is slowing down. What can you expect when  you have 50% growth happening year over year over year?

At some point in time that stops.

We’re seeing the first signs of that with Nvidia reporting a slowdown in AI server revenues – but that’s hardly reflected in the market price yet.

Andrew Zatlin: Time for an AI Pause?
Andrew Zatlin: Trump’s Battle with the Phantom Economy

August 27, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

So right now, jobless claims are in a sweet spot that coincides with a pretty decent economy, 225,000 plus or minus.

Why are they hovering so low? And the reason I believe has to do with fear of deportation.

I believe that the Hispanic community is not applying for the jobless benefits that they’re entitled to because they are afraid of being deported. There are lots and lots of anecdotes out there of workers showing up at a government agency and being nabbed by ICE and being deported.

So rather than run the risk of deportation, these folks would rather run the risk of just not having as much money in their pocket from being eligible for jobs claims and not filing. Lemme explain by talking about California. In general, nationally right now, jobless claims are up about 10% year over year, except when we talk California, and that’s where everything signals under reporting.

Andrew Zatlin: Trump’s Battle with the Phantom Economy