AI’s Dotcom Moment?

We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.

By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?

While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:

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Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.

Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.

~ Addison

The World Should Fear September 9…

The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber.

But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming.

The potential bombshell announcement?

Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025.

If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power.

But the investment implications could be even bigger.

Click here to view the secret map ASAP >>

P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.

Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.

Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.

In short, we like the idea of taking quick gains from today’s tech trends and moving that money out of a potential bubble and into assets like gold. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise –and how high it could go in dollar terms – here.

And this Thursday, at 11 AM on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the big trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.

By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?

While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:

Turn Your Images On

Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.

Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.

~ Addison

The World Should Fear September 9…

The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber.

But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming.

The potential bombshell announcement?

Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025.

If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power.

But the investment implications could be even bigger.

Click here to view the secret map ASAP >>

P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.

Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.

Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Gold has led people to do the most brilliant, the most brave, the most inventive, the most innovative and the most terrible things. ‘More men have been knocked off balance by gold than by love,’ runs the saying, usually attributed to Benjamin Disraeli. Where gold is concerned, emotion, not logic, prevails. Even in today’s markets it is a speculative asset whose price is driven by greed and fear, not by fundamental production numbers.

Fresh GDP data — the Commerce Department revised Q2 growth upward to 3.3% — fueling the rally. Investors cheered the “Goldilocks” read: strong enough to keep the music going, not hot enough (at least on paper) to derail hopes for a Fed pivot.

Even the oddball tickers joined in. Perhaps as fittingly as Lego, Build-A-Bear Workshop popped after beating earnings forecasts, on track for its fifth consecutive record year, thanks to digital expansion.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

Neither represents a bellwether of industrial might — but in this market, even teddy bears roar.

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.