We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.
By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?
While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:
Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.
Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”
When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.
We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.
Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.
Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.
~ Addison
The World Should Fear September 9…
The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber. But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming. The potential bombshell announcement? Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025. If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power. But the investment implications could be even bigger. |
P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.
Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.
Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.
In short, we like the idea of taking quick gains from today’s tech trends and moving that money out of a potential bubble and into assets like gold. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise –and how high it could go in dollar terms – here.
And this Thursday, at 11 AM on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the big trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
