AI’s Dotcom Moment?

We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.

By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?

While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:

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Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.

Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.

~ Addison

The World Should Fear September 9…

The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber.

But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming.

The potential bombshell announcement?

Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025.

If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power.

But the investment implications could be even bigger.

Click here to view the secret map ASAP >>

P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.

Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.

Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.

In short, we like the idea of taking quick gains from today’s tech trends and moving that money out of a potential bubble and into assets like gold. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise –and how high it could go in dollar terms – here.

And this Thursday, at 11 AM on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the big trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.

By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?

While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:

Turn Your Images On

Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.

Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.

~ Addison

The World Should Fear September 9…

The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber.

But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming.

The potential bombshell announcement?

Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025.

If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power.

But the investment implications could be even bigger.

Click here to view the secret map ASAP >>

P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.

Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.

Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

The narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies is that every government around the world has high debt-to-GDP ratios. It means they are going to print more currency. It means there is a need for alternative currency. In the past, this alternative currency was gold.

Gold is not very portable. It’s a good store of value. It’s not as great of a store of value as BTC in terms of actually storing it. BTC, you can store it on a hard drive or at Coinbase. Gold, if you have bars you have to keep them in a bank or you have to dig a hole in your backyard. And you can’t send gold around the world as easily as you can send BTC.

I still think this rally has legs. If you go back to where the breakout happened, we were really in November of 2024 that was the beginning of this bull market in my mind because that was the first time we hit an all-time high in a couple years. Then we rallied. We pulled back. We tested that level again.

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

The telegraph made news global and opened up a world of investment opportunities. Radio, and then television, ignited a new wave of prosperity for investors. And the internet made communication instant, creating fortunes for those who saw what was coming.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

If you have Coinbase building the payment rails, Circle handling settlement and projects like Worldcoin and Particle Network solving for identity and wallets — do you really need a bank to validate transactions and keep track of who owns what?

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.