AI’s Dotcom Moment?

We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.

By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?

While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:

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Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.

Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.

~ Addison

The World Should Fear September 9…

The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber.

But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming.

The potential bombshell announcement?

Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025.

If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power.

But the investment implications could be even bigger.

Click here to view the secret map ASAP >>

P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.

Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.

Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.

In short, we like the idea of taking quick gains from today’s tech trends and moving that money out of a potential bubble and into assets like gold. You can read our report on gold’s historic rise –and how high it could go in dollar terms – here.

And this Thursday, at 11 AM on Grey Swan Live!, Andrew and I will take stock of the first half of the year. We’ll do a comprehensive review of the model portfolio and review the big trends that have impacted stock prices and the economy during the dizzying first months of the second Trump administration. Stay tuned… it promises to be a doozy.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

We’re skeptical of high market valuations. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, markets have soared higher, largely thanks to a surge in large-cap tech stocks.

By any conventional valuation metric, markets are overvalued. But the real question is, how much further could stocks get before they finally peak?

While history doesn’t repeat, it sure does rhyme. And currently, stocks are following the dotcom boom pattern incredibly closely:

Turn Your Images On

Tech stocks have driven markets higher in a similar pattern to the dotcom era.

Warning about markets today makes things sound a bit like when Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance.”

When he uttered those words, markets briefly declined – but it being 1997, the dotcom bubble still had most of its formation ahead.

We’re likely in a similar situation today – perhaps not quite a bubble, but the beginnings of one.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” and deregulation will likely give the market one last squeeze higher into next year.

Consequently, we still see ample opportunity to profit from the rollout of AI technology – but we’ll also be looking for opportunities to lock in profits rather than get caught up in the mania.

~ Addison

The World Should Fear September 9…

The United Nations General Assembly isn’t typically a headline-grabber.

But the upcoming Assembly— beginning on September 9 — has an air of great urgency, because a major announcement could be forthcoming.

The potential bombshell announcement?

Well, it concerns a classified map of a “secret America” from 1946 — a map whose expanded U.S. borders could go into effect in 2025.

If enacted, this wildly controversial map would grant the federal government astonishing economic, societal, and military power.

But the investment implications could be even bigger.

Click here to view the secret map ASAP >>

P.S.: With an eye towards a stock bubble brewing, we continue to like another asset – gold.

Yes, it’s also near all-time highs, just like the stock market. But relative to key metrics like total fiat money supply, gold remains highly undervalued.

Gold also holds its intrinsic value in the face of inflation, which we just can’t seem to fully wring out of our financial system today.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.