About Yesterday’s Slump

Markets soared over 1.8% at the open yesterday, buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings. But, the market closed lower by the end of the day by over 1.5%.

This type of strong reversal has only happened twice before:

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Markets dropped after opening nearly 2% higher, for only the third time. (Source: Subutrade via X)

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

Volatility loves days like today.

For now, none of this should come as a surprise. If you have trimmed over-inflated high fliers when we first suggested it, you’ve insulated your portfolio from sudden selloffs. If not… well, markets have an efficient way of encouraging good habits.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King may prove one of our more timely episodes. Mark and Ian covered key developments in stablecoins and how the current selloff impacts our “Dollar 2.0” digital asset thesis. Including specific guidance on the stocks in your Dollar 2.0 research report.

Bitcoin, as a proxy for the crypto space, is in the midst of a 30% correction — a bit late in its historically predictable four-year cycle. While leveraged buyers have been knocked out, long-term investors are taking advantage of this early holiday deal.

Following the October 21st confab hosted by the Fed, stablecoins are gaining regulatory approval from the SEC, IRS and CFTC. We suspect as coins like Circle’s USDC soak up U.S. Treasury demand, the new digital asset space is going to be a leading headline grabber in 2026.

Program note: Don’t miss your tax planning event this afternoon (Friday, November 21, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST).

We’ve invited our friends Nick Buhelos from Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.

Nick will walk you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors, including the new tax structure from the Big Beautiful Bill that starts January 1, 2026.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Markets soared over 1.8% at the open yesterday, buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings. But, the market closed lower by the end of the day by over 1.5%.

This type of strong reversal has only happened twice before:

Turn Your Images On

Markets dropped after opening nearly 2% higher, for only the third time. (Source: Subutrade via X)

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

Volatility loves days like today.

~ Addison

Program note: Don’t miss your tax planning event this afternoon (Friday, November 21, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST).

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Japan’s 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.

Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.

When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.

This mechanism isn’t new.

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend that the US has spent 22 trillion dollars on its commitment to NATO. Or, roughly two-thirds of the U.S.’s $38 trillion in national debt.
Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

Trump boarded Air Force One this morning for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. It’s been one year to the day since his second inauguration. At this year’s summit — already set to break attendance records with 65 heads of state and over 850 global CEOs — Greenland is top of the agenda.

“We’re going to do something on Greenland whether they like it or not,” Trump told reporters earlier this month.

Greenland sits at the confluence of North America, Europe, and the Arctic.

As the polar ice melts, new shipping lanes open between Asia and Europe — cutting weeks off traditional routes and escalating the race for Arctic dominance.

Secretary of State William H. Seward, the same Seward who bought Alaska from Russia, first advocated for purchasing Greenland in 1867. Again, in 1946, president Harry Truman made a formal, but secret, offer of $100 million in gold to Denmark which Copenhagen declined.

Japan’s 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.

Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.

When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.

This mechanism isn’t new.

Social spending in Europe has roughly doubled in the past 30 years. But only in 2025 has defense spending returned to levels last seen when the Berlin Wall was still standing.

“We’re going to do something on Greenland whether they like it or not,” Trump told reporters earlier this month.

Greenland sits at the confluence of North America, Europe, and the Arctic.

As the polar ice melts, new shipping lanes open between Asia and Europe — cutting weeks off traditional routes and escalating the race for Arctic dominance.