About Yesterday’s Slump

Markets soared over 1.8% at the open yesterday, buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings. But, the market closed lower by the end of the day by over 1.5%.

This type of strong reversal has only happened twice before:

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Markets dropped after opening nearly 2% higher, for only the third time. (Source: Subutrade via X)

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

Volatility loves days like today.

For now, none of this should come as a surprise. If you have trimmed over-inflated high fliers when we first suggested it, you’ve insulated your portfolio from sudden selloffs. If not… well, markets have an efficient way of encouraging good habits.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King may prove one of our more timely episodes. Mark and Ian covered key developments in stablecoins and how the current selloff impacts our “Dollar 2.0” digital asset thesis. Including specific guidance on the stocks in your Dollar 2.0 research report.

Bitcoin, as a proxy for the crypto space, is in the midst of a 30% correction — a bit late in its historically predictable four-year cycle. While leveraged buyers have been knocked out, long-term investors are taking advantage of this early holiday deal.

Following the October 21st confab hosted by the Fed, stablecoins are gaining regulatory approval from the SEC, IRS and CFTC. We suspect as coins like Circle’s USDC soak up U.S. Treasury demand, the new digital asset space is going to be a leading headline grabber in 2026.

Program note: Don’t miss your tax planning event this afternoon (Friday, November 21, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST).

We’ve invited our friends Nick Buhelos from Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.

Nick will walk you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors, including the new tax structure from the Big Beautiful Bill that starts January 1, 2026.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Markets soared over 1.8% at the open yesterday, buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings. But, the market closed lower by the end of the day by over 1.5%.

This type of strong reversal has only happened twice before:

Turn Your Images On

Markets dropped after opening nearly 2% higher, for only the third time. (Source: Subutrade via X)

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

Volatility loves days like today.

~ Addison

Program note: Don’t miss your tax planning event this afternoon (Friday, November 21, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST).

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

The telegraph made news global and opened up a world of investment opportunities. Radio, and then television, ignited a new wave of prosperity for investors. And the internet made communication instant, creating fortunes for those who saw what was coming.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

If you have Coinbase building the payment rails, Circle handling settlement and projects like Worldcoin and Particle Network solving for identity and wallets — do you really need a bank to validate transactions and keep track of who owns what?

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.

“What if you held a bond auction and nobody showed up?” That’s the perennial question plaguing a Treasury Secretary.

Yesterday’s $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasurys didn’t go as well as Bessent would have liked.

High yield: 4.706%

Bid-to-cover: 2.41 (below the 10-auction average of 2.71)

Demand is softening at the exact moment the government needs to roll over debt at record levels.

With Japanese yields soaring, the returns on the carry trade are lower. Carry trades are likely getting unwound, pushing Japanese bond yields even higher.

The unwinding of the carry trade also helps explain why many individual stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have crashed by 40-50% from their recent highs. Investors are selling the target assets of the trade in order to pay back their yen-based loans before their profits get squeezed.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.

“What if you held a bond auction and nobody showed up?” That’s the perennial question plaguing a Treasury Secretary.

Yesterday’s $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasurys didn’t go as well as Bessent would have liked.

High yield: 4.706%

Bid-to-cover: 2.41 (below the 10-auction average of 2.71)

Demand is softening at the exact moment the government needs to roll over debt at record levels.

With Japanese yields soaring, the returns on the carry trade are lower. Carry trades are likely getting unwound, pushing Japanese bond yields even higher.