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Ripple Effect

About Yesterday’s Slump

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 21, 2025 • 2 minute, 24 second read


market structure

About Yesterday’s Slump

Markets soared over 1.8% at the open yesterday, buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings. But, the market closed lower by the end of the day by over 1.5%.

This type of strong reversal has only happened twice before:

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Markets dropped after opening nearly 2% higher, for only the third time. (Source: Subutrade via X)

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

Volatility loves days like today.

For now, none of this should come as a surprise. If you have trimmed over-inflated high fliers when we first suggested it, you’ve insulated your portfolio from sudden selloffs. If not… well, markets have an efficient way of encouraging good habits.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King may prove one of our more timely episodes. Mark and Ian covered key developments in stablecoins and how the current selloff impacts our “Dollar 2.0” digital asset thesis. Including specific guidance on the stocks in your Dollar 2.0 research report.

Bitcoin, as a proxy for the crypto space, is in the midst of a 30% correction — a bit late in its historically predictable four-year cycle. While leveraged buyers have been knocked out, long-term investors are taking advantage of this early holiday deal.

Following the October 21st confab hosted by the Fed, stablecoins are gaining regulatory approval from the SEC, IRS and CFTC. We suspect as coins like Circle’s USDC soak up U.S. Treasury demand, the new digital asset space is going to be a leading headline grabber in 2026.

Program note: Don’t miss your tax planning event this afternoon (Friday, November 21, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST).

We’ve invited our friends Nick Buhelos from Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.

Nick will walk you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors, including the new tax structure from the Big Beautiful Bill that starts January 1, 2026.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America
Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy
Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy