Markets soared over 1.8% at the open yesterday, buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings. But, the market closed lower by the end of the day by over 1.5%.
This type of strong reversal has only happened twice before:
Markets dropped after opening nearly 2% higher, for only the third time. (Source: Subutrade via X)
In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.
In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.
That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.
We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.
Volatility loves days like today.
For now, none of this should come as a surprise. If you have trimmed over-inflated high fliers when we first suggested it, you’ve insulated your portfolio from sudden selloffs. If not… well, markets have an efficient way of encouraging good habits.
~ Addison
P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King may prove one of our more timely episodes. Mark and Ian covered key developments in stablecoins and how the current selloff impacts our “Dollar 2.0” digital asset thesis. Including specific guidance on the stocks in your Dollar 2.0 research report.
Bitcoin, as a proxy for the crypto space, is in the midst of a 30% correction — a bit late in its historically predictable four-year cycle. While leveraged buyers have been knocked out, long-term investors are taking advantage of this early holiday deal.
Following the October 21st confab hosted by the Fed, stablecoins are gaining regulatory approval from the SEC, IRS and CFTC. We suspect as coins like Circle’s USDC soak up U.S. Treasury demand, the new digital asset space is going to be a leading headline grabber in 2026.
Program note: Don’t miss your tax planning event this afternoon (Friday, November 21, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST).
We’ve invited our friends Nick Buhelos from Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.
Nick will walk you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors, including the new tax structure from the Big Beautiful Bill that starts January 1, 2026.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
