We’ve followed Polymarket for over a year now.
There’s something about real people, betting in real-time about events that can tell you more than what the news headlines say.
These bets, which have sometimes amounted to millions of dollars, tend to send a clear signal. It’s a key reason why many members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity were able to forecast President Trump’s electoral college win last year.
However, Polymarket betters have finally got one bet wrong – Japan’s new Prime Minister:
Wagers on Polymarket didn’t see Japan’s conservative party pull out its win over the weekend.
(Source: Polymarket)
The Liberal Democratic Party victory has sent Japanese stocks soaring, as party President Sanae Takaichi – now set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister – is a proponent of stimulus spending, and a China hawk. The electoral win is a vote to keep the yen carry trade alive… and well.
The “yen carry trade” is a currency trading strategy. By borrowing Japanese yen at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets, investors have profited from the interest rate differential. Yen carry trades have played a huge role in global liquidity for decades.
Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!
Time will tell how often Polymarket registers big misses. It’s still early days for the event-betting industry online. That said, we kind of liked the betting odds as a forecasting tool. No longer, eh?
~ Addison
P.S. Grey Swan Live! continues Thursday at 2 PM ET.
This week’s guest? You’re gonna love him. He’s a supply-side economist who has a decades-long track record of predicting future tech trends. We’re looking forward to picking his brain on the opportunities in AI today – and an eye on how much further the AI bubble can blow.
Who do you think it is? Send your guess to Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.
We’ll send another hint this afternoon, with the big reveal tomorrow. But don’t wait to sign up and become a member – it just takes a few minutes.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
