A Vote For The Yen Carry Trade

We’ve followed Polymarket for over a year now.

There’s something about real people, betting in real-time about events that can tell you more than what the news headlines say.

These bets, which have sometimes amounted to millions of dollars, tend to send a clear signal. It’s a key reason why many members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity were able to forecast President Trump’s electoral college win last year.

However, Polymarket betters have finally got one bet wrong – Japan’s new Prime Minister:

Turn Your Images On

Wagers on Polymarket didn’t see Japan’s conservative party pull out its win over the weekend.
(Source: Polymarket)

The Liberal Democratic Party victory has sent Japanese stocks soaring, as party President Sanae Takaichi – now set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister – is a proponent of stimulus spending, and a China hawk. The electoral win is a vote to keep the yen carry trade alive… and well.

The “yen carry trade” is a currency trading strategy. By borrowing Japanese yen at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets, investors have profited from the interest rate differential. Yen carry trades have played a huge role in global liquidity for decades.

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

Time will tell how often Polymarket registers big misses. It’s still early days for the event-betting industry online. That said, we kind of liked the betting odds as a forecasting tool. No longer, eh?

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! continues Thursday at 2 PM ET.

This week’s guest? You’re gonna love him. He’s a supply-side economist who has a decades-long track record of predicting future tech trends. We’re looking forward to picking his brain on the opportunities in AI today – and an eye on how much further the AI bubble can blow.

Who do you think it is? Send your guess to Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com

We’ll send another hint this afternoon, with the big reveal tomorrow. But don’t wait to sign up and become a member – it just takes a few minutes.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

We’ve followed Polymarket for over a year now.

There’s something about real people, betting in real-time about events that can tell you more than what the news headlines say.

However, Polymarket betters have finally got one bet wrong – Japan’s new Prime Minister:

Turn Your Images On

Wagers on Polymarket didn’t see Japan’s conservative party pull out its win over the weekend.
(Source: Polymarket)

Frankly, we’re disappointed — not because of the carry trade but because the crowd got this one so wrong!

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! continues Thursday at 2 PM ET.

Who do you think it is? Send your guess to Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com

We’ll send another hint this afternoon, with the big reveal tomorrow. But don’t wait to sign up and become a member – it just takes a few minutes.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Real assets in general tend to hold their value during inflationary periods — because they’re not just paper promises. They’re tangible. They’re productive. They’re the raw inputs the economy is actually built on.

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

The world does not exist without energy. Full stop. People have been fed a ridiculous lie that oil is going to disappear and we’re all going to drive solar-powered EVs and Exxon is going to go out of business.

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

China’s Ant Group is filing trademarks for “Antcoin” while the Party debates whether digital dollars threaten national sovereignty. And in Singapore, StraitsX cofounder Samson Leo frets about regulatory fragmentation: “If every jurisdiction requires us to split reserves across their banking systems, customer protection will diminish.”

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

If you’re from New York—or know anyone there—you’ll probably agree: most New Yorkers are fed up with crime, the outrageous cost of living, government incompetence and corruption—and, yes, the rats.

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.