A Nation of Day Traders

With all eyes on today’s CPI read, which tells us inflation is slowly ticking up again, it’s a good idea to wonder why we care about a 0.1% move in any direction.

How did this monthly data point become so important?

One big reason is that we’ve become a nation of impulsive, quick traders, not investors. High-frequency trading algorithms don’t help.

But it wasn’t always this way. Investors used to hold their average stock holding for years, just a generation ago:

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So, what turned America into a nation of traders? Cheaper transaction costs are a big reason. Fees earned from Robinhood accounts make up a major revenue stream for Citadel, Wall Street’s largest hedge fund.

Lower tax rates on capital gains, especially under Trump’s tax regime, have pushed investors towards faster-growth companies, which naturally lead them to take quick profits.

At Grey Swan, we’ve built a robust Model Portfolio designed to benefit from stocks that can rise for years at a time… and pay dividends along the way. We include long-term holdings such as gold and silver — hard assets that have stood the test of time — along with the new kid on the block, bitcoin.

Our research often reveals shorter-term trades related to trends like AI, soaring uranium demand, and the surprising opportunity in American natural gas right now.

We don’t need to trade every data point. However, following long and medium-term trends has proven to be profitable over time. And a lot less stressful.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll look at a Grey Swan event in the making: the rise of drone warfare and its meaning and the remaking of the American defense industry. John Robb, former advisor to the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff on netwar, will join us for Grey Swan Live! to share the latest on how drones are actively being deployed in Ukraine and will figure in the Golden Dome. We’ll also discuss investment opportunities these innovations will spawn in the private sector.

Andrew’s also planning to attend the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

With all eyes on today’s CPI read, which tells us inflation is slowly ticking up again, it’s a good idea to wonder why we care about a 0.1% move in any direction.

How did this monthly data point become so important?

One big reason is that we’ve become a nation of impulsive, quick traders, not investors. High-frequency trading algorithms don’t help.

But it wasn’t always this way. Investors used to hold their average stock holding for years, just a generation ago:

Turn Your Images On

Lower tax rates on capital gains, especially under Trump’s tax regime, have pushed investors towards faster-growth companies, which naturally lead them to take quick profits.

Our research often reveals shorter-term trades related to trends like AI, soaring uranium demand, and the surprising opportunity in American natural gas right now.

We don’t need to trade every data point. However, following long and medium-term trends has proven to be profitable over time. And a lot less stressful.

~ Addison

Andrew’s also planning to attend the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.

That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.

The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.