A Market In Search of The Greatest Fool

July 24, 2025 • 1 minute, 21 second read

Q: What happens when you close down most public spaces, give everyone $1,200, and only leave the stock market open?

A: You turn Wall Street into a giant casino.

One of the fascinating cross-currents of the pandemic era was seeing that experiment play out in real time.

For millions who could work remotely, the extra $1,200 was like getting capital to buy lottery tickets.

That money went into stocks like GameStop, as well as many SPAC firms – shell companies looking to take small, high-growth opportunities public.

By the time the mania peaked in late 2021, margin debt was at an all-time high as institutional money raced to catch up with retail investors.

But new all-time high margin debt is back today:

Turn Your Images On

Margin debt is now back above its 2021 peak

We had a bear market in 2022, as rising interest rates sucked marginal capital out of the market.

Along the way, we saw that many investment opportunities of the time were simply one buyer getting in ahead of the next buyer…. in search of the “greatest fool” who bought last.

~ Addison

P.S. Given the resurgence in “meme stocks” the past few weeks – Opendoor, Kohl’s – it may be a sign of market froth. And it may take a 5-10% pullback to get some sanity back in the markets.

If you’re leveraged in this market. Don’t be. You’re in a crowded trade. When a trade is crowded, getting to the exit first is on everyone’s mind. Panic now and avoid the rush.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Ripple Effect

A Market In Search of The Greatest Fool

Addison Wiggin

July 24, 2025 • 1 minute, 21 second read

margin debt market valuation

Q: What happens when you close down most public spaces, give everyone $1,200, and only leave the stock market open?

A: You turn Wall Street into a giant casino.

One of the fascinating cross-currents of the pandemic era was seeing that experiment play out in real time.

For millions who could work remotely, the extra $1,200 was like getting capital to buy lottery tickets.

That money went into stocks like GameStop, as well as many SPAC firms – shell companies looking to take small, high-growth opportunities public.

By the time the mania peaked in late 2021, margin debt was at an all-time high as institutional money raced to catch up with retail investors.

But new all-time high margin debt is back today:

Turn Your Images On

Margin debt is now back above its 2021 peak

We had a bear market in 2022, as rising interest rates sucked marginal capital out of the market.

Along the way, we saw that many investment opportunities of the time were simply one buyer getting in ahead of the next buyer…. in search of the “greatest fool” who bought last.

~ Addison

P.S. Given the resurgence in “meme stocks” the past few weeks – Opendoor, Kohl’s – it may be a sign of market froth. And it may take a 5-10% pullback to get some sanity back in the markets.

If you’re leveraged in this market. Don’t be. You’re in a crowded trade. When a trade is crowded, getting to the exit first is on everyone’s mind. Panic now and avoid the rush.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

Bears on the Prowl

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

How To Guarantee Higher Prices

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

December 5, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Bears on the Prowl

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

How To Guarantee Higher Prices

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

December 5, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.