7 Grey Swan Predictions

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

America Catches a Bid

March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.

Igniting Minneapolis

March 5, 2026 • John Robb

Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).

China, Chokepoints and Gold

March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In normal times, the Chinese operate a quota system for refined product exports; this week, the throttle tightened. And even though they are Asia’s third-largest exporters of “energy,” the country still draws close to half its imported crude from the Gulf, including nearly all Iranian shipments.

Out Come The Private Credit Cockroaches

March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Back in October 2025, following the collapse of firms like First Brands and Tricolor, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of hidden risks in the $3 trillion private credit market. “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon said, suggesting that further defaults and “garbage lending” issues will likely emerge.