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Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read


7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State


Shattered Assumptions, Real Energy

April 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Politicians talk. Markets often discount any potential follow-through or just ignore them altogether. But Trump isn’t like other politicians.

Shattered Assumptions, Real Energy
Private Credit’s Implosion

April 2, 2026 • Andrew Packer

With private credit infecting the entire financial system, the contagion is proving as hard to “contain” as subprime mortgages in 2007…

Private Credit’s Implosion
Mr. Powell, Please Do No Harm

March 31, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Fix the system, and it snaps under pressure. Free it, and it adapts. The Federal Reserve is about to make that choice in real time…

Mr. Powell, Please Do No Harm
The Earnings Silver Lining

March 31, 2026 • Andrew Packer

Markets may be correcting, but earnings haven’t blinked yet. And right now, that’s the only thing holding this together…

The Earnings Silver Lining