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Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Addison WigginAddison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read


7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State


Three Data Points, One Banger Trade

October 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

If semiconductor stocks begin their next advance from here, we want exposure before the crowd works its way down the supply chain.

Three Data Points, One Banger Trade
The Market’s Strongest One-Year Period Starts Next Week

October 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

We’re not just entering a seasonally bullish period for stocks. But the year that is consistently the best stretch in any president’s term…

The Market’s Strongest One-Year Period Starts Next Week
The Debasement Trade and The Real Economy

October 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Unlike supply-and-demand issues, debasement of fiat money — worldwide, mind you — will drive prices across the entire commodity space.

The Debasement Trade and The Real Economy
The Incredibly Resilient Consumer

October 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Same-store spending has picked up all through the hand-wringing over “affordability” leading into the midterms

The Incredibly Resilient Consumer