7 Grey Swan Predictions

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

Dan Amoss: Fixing the Resource Curse

December 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The dollar-centric system and its bubbles may have given the U.S. economy a form of Dutch disease. This system has many rarely debated costs that go along with its benefits.

Deficit spending and stimulus inflated prices for stocks, real estate, and consumer goods. Trillions in savings remain in accounts from stimulus bills.

Without this spending, prices would be lower, a point lost on the Biden administration’s hyper-Keynesian economists, who never met a spending bill they did not cheer.

Repricing Legitimacy

December 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we round out this year, what’s being repriced is more than the market task of assessing risk. Legitimacy. That’s what is under scrutiny right now.

Seen through a cyclical lens, that makes sense. The Fourth Turning, popularized by Howe and Strauss, is upon us. So are Dalio’s long and short debt cycles.

We watch the Fed meetings, minutes and press conferences with the same intrigue as always. But long cycle is telling us the short-term one doesn’t have the gumption that the markets once believed.

It’s actually amusing, if you think about it. We spend a lot of our lives believing there’s a narrative that ties this ol’ ball spinning free in space together in some coherent pattern.

And This Year’s Winner Is…

December 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Except for a minor blowup in the private credit markets, the only challenge financial stocks had this year was in April, when everything got whacked by Trump’s shock-and-awe tariff announcements.

Stands to reason, in a bull market for stocks, mergers, acquisitions and new issues, financial stocks are like the “brick and mortar” plays for Wall Street itself.

For now? It’s smooth sailing into the new year.

Dan Amoss: A Golden Opportunity In the Currency Wars

December 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

What would a return to gold look like? Jim presents multiple scenarios, including a partial gold backing of new international reserve currencies. He notes that prior attempts to stabilize the global economy – such as the Genoa Conference in 1922 and the postwar Bretton Woods system – centered on gold’s role in anchoring currency values.

As history has shown, when trust in paper currencies erodes, gold emerges as the ultimate safe haven. The world looks to be on the cusp of another monetary realignment, and this time, gold will play a critical role.

Dan Amoss: A Golden Opportunity In the Currency Wars

Dan Amoss: Fixing the Resource Curse

December 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The dollar-centric system and its bubbles may have given the U.S. economy a form of Dutch disease. This system has many rarely debated costs that go along with its benefits.

Deficit spending and stimulus inflated prices for stocks, real estate, and consumer goods. Trillions in savings remain in accounts from stimulus bills.

Without this spending, prices would be lower, a point lost on the Biden administration’s hyper-Keynesian economists, who never met a spending bill they did not cheer.

Repricing Legitimacy

December 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we round out this year, what’s being repriced is more than the market task of assessing risk. Legitimacy. That’s what is under scrutiny right now.

Seen through a cyclical lens, that makes sense. The Fourth Turning, popularized by Howe and Strauss, is upon us. So are Dalio’s long and short debt cycles.

We watch the Fed meetings, minutes and press conferences with the same intrigue as always. But long cycle is telling us the short-term one doesn’t have the gumption that the markets once believed.

It’s actually amusing, if you think about it. We spend a lot of our lives believing there’s a narrative that ties this ol’ ball spinning free in space together in some coherent pattern.

And This Year’s Winner Is…

December 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Except for a minor blowup in the private credit markets, the only challenge financial stocks had this year was in April, when everything got whacked by Trump’s shock-and-awe tariff announcements.

Stands to reason, in a bull market for stocks, mergers, acquisitions and new issues, financial stocks are like the “brick and mortar” plays for Wall Street itself.

For now? It’s smooth sailing into the new year.

Dan Amoss: A Golden Opportunity In the Currency Wars

December 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin