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Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

“No Kings” or Just Bad At Math

October 20, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The “No Kings” crowd might one day discover that the tyranny they fear doesn’t wear a crown. It wears a smile, signs checks, and calls itself “the common good.”

And like all monarchs in the end, it will demand obedience — long after the cheering stops.

If history rhymes, as it seems to, we’re somewhere between the late 1930s and the late Roman Republic. The crowds are restless, the debt insatiable, the elites insulated, and the reformers convinced they can vote their way to virtue. The yachts are still in the harbor; the customers are still swimming.

“No Kings”? Fine. But remember: every time the crowd dethrones a monarch, it tends to crown a bureaucracy. And bureaucracies, unlike kings, never die.

“No Kings” or Just Bad At Math
A Look Ahead to 1940

October 20, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wall Street will always sell tickets to the parade—radio in 1929, dot-coms in 1999, GPUs in 2025. Some parades end in confetti; others in subpoenas. Schwed’s wisdom still stands: you don’t need to time the last note, just keep your seat close to the exit.

If the boom continues, your portfolio participates. If it falters, your ballast buys you time—and maybe your own modest “yacht,” which Schwed would remind you is simply a sturdy rowboat, with good oars and a sound hull.

A Look Ahead to 1940
Wall of Worry, Indeed

October 20, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wall Street traders have a term for this phase: the wall of worry. As long as investors get fearful enough, the market top isn’t in.

At the top, investors will go all-in – in what’s known as the “blow of top”,  like they did with dotcom stocks in 1999, or as many did with SPAC companies in 2021.

We haven’t quite gotten to the “this time is different” mentality that causes investors to throw on the blinders – yet.

Wall of Worry, Indeed
Adam O’Dell: Gold’s $5,000 Moment?

October 17, 2025 • Adam O'Dell

Regardless of anyone’s personal opinion on Trump, it’s clear that the international community is translating his “Putting America First” agenda as something more like “Every Man for Himself.” That could have a profound impact down the line, not just for our future trade prospects, but for the health of the economy and the U.S. dollar at large (which is still the world’s dominant reserve currency, for now).

At the same time, this is all very bullish for gold, as central banks are likely to continue buying for years to come. In this kind of situation, gold hitting $4,300 and continuing to rise higher was a foregone conclusion, and it’s clear that Trump’s agenda is locked in and unlikely to change.

Adam O’Dell: Gold’s $5,000 Moment?