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Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read


7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State


Markets Slip, Metals Split, Power Gets Physical

February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In Singapore, Bloomberg reported that retail buyers crowded United Overseas Bank, the city’s only bank selling physical gold, until customers without pre-orders were turned away.

In Sydney, lines stretched into the street outside ABC Bullion after Friday’s selloff. Thai investors held existing positions instead of selling into weakness. In China’s Shuibei district, ahead of the Lunar New Year, buyers stepped in, and local prices held premiums over exchange benchmarks.

“It’s still a buying market,” said Globlex Securities CEO Thanapisal Koohapremkit. Quiet accumulation doesn’t announce itself. It just keeps happening.

Markets Slip, Metals Split, Power Gets Physical
One Strong Sign of a Weak Labor Market

February 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

 AI tools are incredibly useful and AI stocks remain richly valued. Yes. 

 New tech will also create new, productive and higher paying jobs. Ones we haven’t even dreamed up yet.

In the meantime, the jobs market is being measured by the tools needed to calculate the economy without knowing what the new jobs will be.

One Strong Sign of a Weak Labor Market
Gold Shivers, Wear A Coat

February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

For months, speculation swirled like chimney smoke in a snowstorm. Would Trump tap a dove? A loyalist? A Wall Street man in a red hat? Warsh checks none of those boxes — and all of them.

 He’s a former Fed governor, a Goldman alum, and a card-carrying skeptic of central bank omnipotence. 

He’s said, “The Fed is not independent from government. It is independent within government,” which sounds like something out of a fortune cookie written by Hayek. 

He doesn’t want the Fed playing God, and he’s not keen on printing money to mop up Congress’s mess. He believes in limits. In credibility. In consequences.

Gold Shivers, Wear A Coat
Insiders Ring the Bell, Again

February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Corporate insiders began ringing the cash register just as the S&P 500 touched 7,000. Given that the market is up over 40% from last April’s “Liberation Day” lows, a modicum of profit-taking is wise.

Insiders Ring the Bell, Again