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Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Addison WigginAddison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read


7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State


⚽ An Accidental Birth Tourist

July 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A World Cup eligibility twist involving Trump sets the tone for a broader transatlantic tension as Europe grapples with geopolitical tensions.

⚽ An Accidental Birth Tourist
The Leverage To Watch

July 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In today’s bull market, tense with the uncertainty of a midterm year, the debt load hedge funds are taking on is worth monitoring right now… 

The Leverage To Watch
🌏 Xi Jinping Doesn’t “Need” a War

July 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

China’s growing maritime pressure around Taiwan demonstrates economic leverage may be its preferred path to reshaping regional power dynamics.

🌏 Xi Jinping Doesn’t “Need” a War
💰 Warsh, Washington and the Yield Curve

July 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Rapid growth in Treasury bill issuance is tying federal borrowing costs more tightly to short-term interest rates set by the central bank…

💰 Warsh, Washington and the Yield Curve