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Daily Missive

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

Matt Milner: Main Street’s New Gateway into Wall Street’s Playground

July 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For close to one hundred years, the U.S. government made it illegal for ordinary investors to invest in pre-IPO startups — in other words, companies that weren’t public.

Unless you were a wealthy accredited investor (net worth of at least $1 million, or annual salary of $200,000), you could only invest in publicly-traded stocks and bonds.

This forced ordinary investors to miss out on big gains. According to Cambridge Associates, a financial advisor with clients including the Rockefeller Family and the Bill Gates Foundation, private startups have delivered annual returns of 55% over the last twenty-five years.

That’s five, six, seven times higher than the average returns of stocks. And it’s enough to double your money every two years or so.

Matt Milner: Main Street’s New Gateway into Wall Street’s Playground
The Labor Market’s Warning Signal Now

July 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A Bloomberg survey shows 30% of everyday Americans expect the labor market to get worse. Each jump of this magnitude in the past has preceded a recession.

Labor market data is screaming that there’s trouble in the real economy.

Except, of course, the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – the same government agency that has “revised” away over a million jobs reported as having been created during the Biden administration.

The Labor Market’s Warning Signal Now
Here Cometh Tariff Tantrum 2.0

July 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The second half of 2025 opens with fireworks and fog. The markets are still chasing dreams, even as the ground shifts beneath them. Tariffs are more than a tax — they’re a weaponized expression of a new economic order.

Profitless stocks are a signal of excess liquidity, not optimism. And every new announcement from the White House or Truth Social carries ripple effects that touch everything from currencies to commodities to your portfolio.

As an investor, your job isn’t to outguess the next tweet or tariff — it’s to understand what the world’s actually rewarding now, and what it’s quietly punishing.

In that light, cash flows still matter. Real assets still matter. Confidence, liquidity, and political clarity… matter more than ever.

Here Cometh Tariff Tantrum 2.0
Mamdani Land

July 7, 2025 • Joel Bowman

Universal healthcare and “free” (taxpayer-funded) education and the rest of the redistributive voter bribes are ways of spending money, not generating it. Progressive taxation is a means of redistributing wealth, not producing it. The difference is non-trivial.

Countries like Kuwait and Norway are not rich because of their respective governments’ addiction to expensive giveaway programs, whatever one thinks of the merits or alleged compassion of such redistributive policies. They are wealthy despite them.

Down at the other End of the World, meanwhile, president Javier Milei has been busy liberating Argentina’s long-suffering citizens from three-quarters of a century of politicians’ worst laid plans. We’ll have more about the goings on in our adopted home later in the week.

Mamdani Land