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Daily Missive

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State

Europe Just Entered Rare Earth Panic

July 16, 2025 • Lau Vegys

A European version of Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order—which used emergency powers to fast-track domestic rare earth mining and processing—isn’t coming anytime soon.

There’s no mention of boosting local mining or processing in the draft EU Commission document I mentioned.

Classic Brussels. They want the benefits, but none of the mess.

And with Europe’s layers of red tape, strong NIMBY sentiment, and only patchy refining capacity so far… good luck. Just look at the Norra Kärr project in Sweden—stalled for years over environmental protests. Or here in Spain—where I happen to be at the moment—the Matamulas deposit continues to face ferocious opposition, despite being one of the most advanced rare earth projects in Western Europe.

Trust me, Europe won’t be mining or refining rare earths in any meaningful way anytime soon.

Europe Just Entered Rare Earth Panic
One Reason to Bet on a Sideways Summer

July 16, 2025 • Andrew Packer

Given how closely that markets have followed a similar path to the dotcom boom, a few months of sideways trading appears to be in store. That also fits in with usual seasonal patterns of a market trending lower in August and September, before rallying to close the year.

Yesterday’s news that Nvidia would be allowed to sell advanced chips to China sent shares back to all-time highs. However, given the extent of the market bounce from its April lows, it may be prudent to trim back some portfolio positions now.

Doing so will allow you to take advantage of the high yields in cash – especially with 30-year bond yields back to 5%.

One Reason to Bet on a Sideways Summer
The $2.5 Billion Blunder That Could Get JPow Fired

July 16, 2025 • Andrew Packer

It’s not the trillion-dollar paper loss the Fed is currently sitting on that may get Powell out of office before his term expires next spring. That’s business as usual.

Instead, it’s a problem that’s less than 3% of the Fed’s massive losses with no real plan to address its balance sheet.

But the larger problem remains: Powell is a figurehead. He’s a voice in a chorus. An important one, yes. But you’d need to replace more than Powell to get a Federal Reserve ready to follow Trump’s suggestions. 

The $2.5 Billion Blunder That Could Get JPow Fired
Smart States Are Embracing Gold And Silver

July 15, 2025 • John Rubino

It’s nice that states are separating themselves into “smart” and “stupid” categories so Americans can tell where and where not to live. The issue of sound money, in particular, is indicative of a whole range of other likely tax/spend/regulate policies that affect quality of life.

Smart States Are Embracing Gold And Silver