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Beneath the Surface

7 Grey Swan Predictions

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 1, 2025 • 40 second read


7 Grey Swan Predictions

Ironically or not, the thread that binds all of these Grey Swan events is a reliance on debt at all levels of society and a consumer culture that favors short-term gratification. Political violence is just a f’d up way of expressing dissatisfaction with a culture that values material goods over some kind of weird spiritualism. Both of the assailants in New Orleans and in Las Vegas were military and in financial distress.

Grey Swan #7: Debt Binge Ends

Grey Swan #6: Banks Go First

Grey Swan #5: BRICS Bucks Continue To Challenge the US Dollar

Grey Swan #4: The China Wild Card: Tariffs and Chips

Grey Swan #3: Death of the Middle Class

Grey Swan #2: Mutant AI and the Death of Free Speech

Grey Swan #1: Return of American Political Violence

Bonus Grey Swan: Rise of the American Police State


Worst. Start. Ever.

March 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Already trading historically sideways through January and February, the markets are now pricing a prolonged spike in energy and natural resources and the uncertainty of war in real time.

Worst. Start. Ever.
The Political Pain Index, Part II

March 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Trump “pain index” just hit extremes, and history says something has to give. The system is under strain — and every asset is reacting…

The Political Pain Index, Part II
Global Market Concentration Risk

March 27, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

With geopolitical tension and election uncertainty building, concentration risk is no longer theoretical — it’s active…

Global Market Concentration Risk
Chokepoints, Ugly Data and the Pressure Index

March 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Markets aren’t reacting to headlines — they’re reacting to chokepoints, where energy, debt and geopolitics collide in real time…

Chokepoints, Ugly Data and the Pressure Index