Who’s Buying The Dips?

May 20, 2025 • 55 second read

Markets opened lower on Monday, but closed the day green. Why? Because retail investors continue to aggressively buy market dips.

In the morning, yesterday, an analyst at Morgan Stanley suggested that any drop following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit from AAA to Aa1 would be temporary.

Sure enough, investors came into the market in droves by lunchtime.

But what’s most interesting in our current V-shaped market recovery is what’s missing: The Federal Reserve.

Turn Your Images On

During the 2020 and 2008 bear markets and V-shaped recoveries, the most significant driver wasn’t retail investors – it was policymakers, opening up the monetary spigots.

Both times, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet soared.

Perversely, the lack of monetary intervention in this market bounce is good news. Investors are pushing markets higher, not money created out of thin air.

Markets may make a new all-time high in the coming weeks at the rate they’re going.

But if you’ve got a bit of contrarian in ya, markets pushing higher on retail buying is likely also raising the hair on the back of your neck a bit. Caveat emptor.

-Addison

Ripple Effect

Who’s Buying The Dips?

Addison Wiggin

May 20, 2025 • 55 second read

Markets opened lower on Monday, but closed the day green. Why? Because retail investors continue to aggressively buy market dips.

In the morning, yesterday, an analyst at Morgan Stanley suggested that any drop following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit from AAA to Aa1 would be temporary.

Sure enough, investors came into the market in droves by lunchtime.

But what’s most interesting in our current V-shaped market recovery is what’s missing: The Federal Reserve.

Turn Your Images On

During the 2020 and 2008 bear markets and V-shaped recoveries, the most significant driver wasn’t retail investors – it was policymakers, opening up the monetary spigots.

Both times, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet soared.

Perversely, the lack of monetary intervention in this market bounce is good news. Investors are pushing markets higher, not money created out of thin air.

Markets may make a new all-time high in the coming weeks at the rate they’re going.

But if you’ve got a bit of contrarian in ya, markets pushing higher on retail buying is likely also raising the hair on the back of your neck a bit. Caveat emptor.

-Addison

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House

December 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the socialist agenda lands, the reaction matters as much as the results of the initial vote.

A hostile House gridlocks legislation. Investigations proliferate. Impeachment chatter returns. Executive authority stretches to compensate.

The political goal of the reactionary strategist will be to muck up the Trump realignment as much as possible to regain power in the House, the Senate (eventually), fortify the courts and ultimately take back the Oval Office.

Trump will not face a midterm defeat like past lame-duck presidents. We’ll see a host of creative efforts to assert executive authority and override the people’s House. The checks and balances bestowed by Montesquieu at the very root of the Republic will be tested as never before.

Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy