What Goes Up…

We’ve been warning for over a year that the stock market is overly concentrated in AI stocks.

And with those stocks soaring, market valuations aren’t just high – they rest on a sliver of companies that need to execute their operations perfectly.

A new survey shows that over 90% of money managers also believe that markets are overvalued.

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A full 91% of fund managers believe stocks are overvalued, the most on record (Source: BofA Global Research)

Why is this remarkable? It’s the highest ever recorded.

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with George Gilder was more important than we expected.

Yes, George covered most of what he believes are eight exponential technologies — AI, quantum computing, robotics, self-driving cars, blockchain, chips, advanced biotech, and even space.

But Mr. Gilder also took us on a deep dive into a new technology that could make traditional computer chips obsolete.

Why is it important? Because it will likely render the “Nvidia Model” – the business model pouring trillions into the stock market and massive data server farms around the globe – obsolete.

If you’re invested in the broader index in a significant way, including through a retirement account like an IRA or 401(k), you are going to want to hear George’s forecast for what disruptive technology is going to replace the microchip as we know it.

The pace of disruption will be staggering, according to Gilder. He and our colleague Ian King have released a new report forecasting these vital trends at the forefront of technology. You can see George and Ian’s work here.

And our own research with Ian, which we filmed on Tuesday, will be released on October 16. It details the next leg of stablecoin development and which three companies we expect will dominate the new regulatory environment for the monetary system as digital assets go mainstream.

You’ll have a chance to get on an exclusive email list for the release of my report with Ian on Sunday. Watch your inbox over the weekend. And stay tuned!

For paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, the replay of our conversation with George Gilder can be found here:

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

We’ve been warning for over a year that the stock market is overly concentrated in AI stocks.

And with those stocks soaring, market valuations aren’t just high – they rest on a sliver of companies that need to execute their operations perfectly.

A new survey shows that over 90% of money managers also believe that markets are overvalued.

Turn Your Images On

A full 91% of fund managers believe stocks are overvalued, the most on record (Source: BofA Global Research)

Why is this remarkable? It’s the highest ever recorded.

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with George Gilder was more important than we expected.

Yes, George covered most of what he believes are eight exponential technologies — AI, quantum computing, robotics, self-driving cars, blockchain, chips, advanced biotech, and even space.

But Mr. Gilder also took us on a deep dive into a new technology that could make traditional computer chips obsolete.

Why is it important? Because it will likely render the “Nvidia Model” – the business model pouring trillions into the stock market and massive data server farms around the globe – obsolete.

You’ll have a chance to get on an exclusive email list for the release of my report with Ian on Sunday. Watch your inbox over the weekend. And stay tuned!

For paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, the replay of our conversation with George Gilder can be found here:

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

After yesterday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, the world’s two largest economies agreed to reduce the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while Beijing paused its rare earth export restrictions.

The markets would normally have cheered such détente. But investors were still haunted by Jerome Powell’s warning that the Fed may not cut rates again in December. And a renewed awareness that the AI bubble may, in fact, be in the “melt-up” phase… driven by expansive capital expenditures, financed by debt.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.

Milei, meanwhile, is doing something different. He’s cutting budgets, trimming employees, and chopping off unnecessary bureaucratic appendages. He’s been in office for a little shy of two years. During that time, he’s reduced inflation by about 90% and cut the budget deficit by 100%. Argentina has climbed out of its almost permanent recession to have the fastest growing economy in the Americas, with GDP growth more than twice that of the US. Real wages have tripled. And poverty has been cut by 40%.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

In his press conference after lowering interest rates a quarter point this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the case that the AI boom was nothing like the dotcom bubble.

There’s just one problem. The market is following the dotcom boom nearly perfectly – with 2025 following closely to 1998.