What Goes Up…

We’ve been warning for over a year that the stock market is overly concentrated in AI stocks.

And with those stocks soaring, market valuations aren’t just high – they rest on a sliver of companies that need to execute their operations perfectly.

A new survey shows that over 90% of money managers also believe that markets are overvalued.

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A full 91% of fund managers believe stocks are overvalued, the most on record (Source: BofA Global Research)

Why is this remarkable? It’s the highest ever recorded.

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with George Gilder was more important than we expected.

Yes, George covered most of what he believes are eight exponential technologies — AI, quantum computing, robotics, self-driving cars, blockchain, chips, advanced biotech, and even space.

But Mr. Gilder also took us on a deep dive into a new technology that could make traditional computer chips obsolete.

Why is it important? Because it will likely render the “Nvidia Model” – the business model pouring trillions into the stock market and massive data server farms around the globe – obsolete.

If you’re invested in the broader index in a significant way, including through a retirement account like an IRA or 401(k), you are going to want to hear George’s forecast for what disruptive technology is going to replace the microchip as we know it.

The pace of disruption will be staggering, according to Gilder. He and our colleague Ian King have released a new report forecasting these vital trends at the forefront of technology. You can see George and Ian’s work here.

And our own research with Ian, which we filmed on Tuesday, will be released on October 16. It details the next leg of stablecoin development and which three companies we expect will dominate the new regulatory environment for the monetary system as digital assets go mainstream.

You’ll have a chance to get on an exclusive email list for the release of my report with Ian on Sunday. Watch your inbox over the weekend. And stay tuned!

For paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, the replay of our conversation with George Gilder can be found here:

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

We’ve been warning for over a year that the stock market is overly concentrated in AI stocks.

And with those stocks soaring, market valuations aren’t just high – they rest on a sliver of companies that need to execute their operations perfectly.

A new survey shows that over 90% of money managers also believe that markets are overvalued.

Turn Your Images On

A full 91% of fund managers believe stocks are overvalued, the most on record (Source: BofA Global Research)

Why is this remarkable? It’s the highest ever recorded.

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with George Gilder was more important than we expected.

Yes, George covered most of what he believes are eight exponential technologies — AI, quantum computing, robotics, self-driving cars, blockchain, chips, advanced biotech, and even space.

But Mr. Gilder also took us on a deep dive into a new technology that could make traditional computer chips obsolete.

Why is it important? Because it will likely render the “Nvidia Model” – the business model pouring trillions into the stock market and massive data server farms around the globe – obsolete.

You’ll have a chance to get on an exclusive email list for the release of my report with Ian on Sunday. Watch your inbox over the weekend. And stay tuned!

For paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, the replay of our conversation with George Gilder can be found here:

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Real assets in general tend to hold their value during inflationary periods — because they’re not just paper promises. They’re tangible. They’re productive. They’re the raw inputs the economy is actually built on.

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

The world does not exist without energy. Full stop. People have been fed a ridiculous lie that oil is going to disappear and we’re all going to drive solar-powered EVs and Exxon is going to go out of business.

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

China’s Ant Group is filing trademarks for “Antcoin” while the Party debates whether digital dollars threaten national sovereignty. And in Singapore, StraitsX cofounder Samson Leo frets about regulatory fragmentation: “If every jurisdiction requires us to split reserves across their banking systems, customer protection will diminish.”

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

If you’re from New York—or know anyone there—you’ll probably agree: most New Yorkers are fed up with crime, the outrageous cost of living, government incompetence and corruption—and, yes, the rats.

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.