What Goes Up…

We’ve been warning for over a year that the stock market is overly concentrated in AI stocks.

And with those stocks soaring, market valuations aren’t just high – they rest on a sliver of companies that need to execute their operations perfectly.

A new survey shows that over 90% of money managers also believe that markets are overvalued.

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A full 91% of fund managers believe stocks are overvalued, the most on record (Source: BofA Global Research)

Why is this remarkable? It’s the highest ever recorded.

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with George Gilder was more important than we expected.

Yes, George covered most of what he believes are eight exponential technologies — AI, quantum computing, robotics, self-driving cars, blockchain, chips, advanced biotech, and even space.

But Mr. Gilder also took us on a deep dive into a new technology that could make traditional computer chips obsolete.

Why is it important? Because it will likely render the “Nvidia Model” – the business model pouring trillions into the stock market and massive data server farms around the globe – obsolete.

If you’re invested in the broader index in a significant way, including through a retirement account like an IRA or 401(k), you are going to want to hear George’s forecast for what disruptive technology is going to replace the microchip as we know it.

The pace of disruption will be staggering, according to Gilder. He and our colleague Ian King have released a new report forecasting these vital trends at the forefront of technology. You can see George and Ian’s work here.

And our own research with Ian, which we filmed on Tuesday, will be released on October 16. It details the next leg of stablecoin development and which three companies we expect will dominate the new regulatory environment for the monetary system as digital assets go mainstream.

You’ll have a chance to get on an exclusive email list for the release of my report with Ian on Sunday. Watch your inbox over the weekend. And stay tuned!

For paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, the replay of our conversation with George Gilder can be found here:

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

We’ve been warning for over a year that the stock market is overly concentrated in AI stocks.

And with those stocks soaring, market valuations aren’t just high – they rest on a sliver of companies that need to execute their operations perfectly.

A new survey shows that over 90% of money managers also believe that markets are overvalued.

Turn Your Images On

A full 91% of fund managers believe stocks are overvalued, the most on record (Source: BofA Global Research)

Why is this remarkable? It’s the highest ever recorded.

Only during the ‘08 financial crisis and its aftermath have the majority of money managers seen stocks as undervalued.

This data point is another in a list of historic highs – stock indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, retail investment, retail margin borrowing – we’re seeing in the market right now.

Markets are out of whack to the upside.

History’s cautionary tale? When markets are out of whack… it takes an unsettling event (crisis) to get them back into whack.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with George Gilder was more important than we expected.

Yes, George covered most of what he believes are eight exponential technologies — AI, quantum computing, robotics, self-driving cars, blockchain, chips, advanced biotech, and even space.

But Mr. Gilder also took us on a deep dive into a new technology that could make traditional computer chips obsolete.

Why is it important? Because it will likely render the “Nvidia Model” – the business model pouring trillions into the stock market and massive data server farms around the globe – obsolete.

You’ll have a chance to get on an exclusive email list for the release of my report with Ian on Sunday. Watch your inbox over the weekend. And stay tuned!

For paying members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, the replay of our conversation with George Gilder can be found here:

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.