It has been three weeks since the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, and the stock has given a masterclass on what retail investors can expect from an IPO.
Shares began trading around $150 after an initial IPO target of $135, surged above $202 and have since fallen back toward their opening range. The June 12 release included only 5% of the shares that’ll become available to the public.
The next 20% release is scheduled for the second full trading day following the company’s second-quarter 2026 earnings report, which is currently expected on August 6.
The 20% release represents the first major “cliff” in the SpaceX lock-up schedule, allowing employees and early investors to sell a significant portion of their holdings before the standard 180-day window expires.
A final reckoning for publicly traded shares won’t occur until after the fifth and final 7% tranche of shares becomes available on October 25, 2026.
SpaceX may be the biggest name in this year’s IPO market, in market history for that matter, but it is hardly alone. Nearly $250 billion has already been raised through new stock offerings, putting IPO activity near levels last seen in 2021, just before the 2022 bear market:
IPO mania is at levels seen in 2021, right before the bear market of 2022. (Source: Liz Ann Sonders)
A spate of technology IPOs doesn’t mean the AI boom is over or that the market is about to collapse. But they indicate that startups are gunning for excess capital in the market. Investors are wise to treat the IPO rush as a yellow flag.
Companies usually go public when valuations are generous, demand is strong and early investors can finally turn paper gains into cash.
That is good timing for the sellers, but not always for the buyers. A great company can still be a poor investment if the stock is priced as if it has already achieved years of success.
Public markets eventually force a more honest reckoning.
Once the excitement fades and the stock is exposed to daily trading, investors often get a better chance to buy at a more reasonable valuation.
The rush for cash is also why the more attractive opportunity in a flashy IPO market may not be the newest name on the exchange, but rather established companies that have already survived several economic cycles, proven their businesses and continued paying dividends to their owners.
Today’s Grey Swan Pro looks at a mature company with decades of brand recognition and a dividend yield north of 4% in contrast to today’s tech volatility — details here.
~ Addison
P.S. With the short holiday week ahead of America’s 250th birthday weekend, Grey Swan Live! will be back next Thursday, July 9.
Have a great Independence Day!
