The Market’s Next Selloff May Start in the Land of the Rising Sun

May 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 10 second read

We noted in this morning’s Swan Dive that 30-year U.S. bond yields are at 5% once again. Prior moves to this level have led to a sharp selloff over the past few years. This time may be different.

One reason? Deteriorating conditions in another key bond market – Japan. Best known for fighting deflation over the past few decades, Japan used to offer investors a near-zero yield – which in turn helped fuel “carry trades.”

This policy of borrowing in near-zero assets to buy higher yielding – and usually riskier ones – is a favorite among traders. Unless rates rise, since that compresses potential returns.

Today, Japan’s 30-year bond has soared to its highest yield in 25 years. And the country’s 40-year bond is at its highest yield since its inception, at 3.4%.

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Remember last summer’s market selloff and soaring volatility index? It wasn’t just a tempest in a teapot. It was caused by fears that Japan would raise rates quickly, and compress the carry trade.

Today, Japan’s bond market is making that move even without its central bank. Just as how U.S. bond yields have jumped in the past year – despite the Fed cutting interest rates a full point.

Don’t be surprised if Japan’s rising yields spark another carry-trade unwind that roils the stock market. The good news? Unwinding leveraged trades takes dangerous leverage out of the global financial system.

-Addison

Ripple Effect

The Market’s Next Selloff May Start in the Land of the Rising Sun

Addison Wiggin

May 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 10 second read

We noted in this morning’s Swan Dive that 30-year U.S. bond yields are at 5% once again. Prior moves to this level have led to a sharp selloff over the past few years. This time may be different.

This policy of borrowing in near-zero assets to buy higher yielding – and usually riskier ones – is a favorite among traders. Unless rates rise, since that compresses potential returns.

Today, Japan’s 30-year bond has soared to its highest yield in 25 years. And the country’s 40-year bond is at its highest yield since its inception, at 3.4%.

Turn Your Images On

Today, Japan’s bond market is making that move even without its central bank. Just as how U.S. bond yields have jumped in the past year – despite the Fed cutting interest rates a full point.

-Addison

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Debanking the Outsider

December 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed