The Hindenburg Omen, triggered

The Hindenburg Omen signaled a crash last week, conveniently in time for Halloween:

Hindenburg Omen signals tend to cluster before a market crash. (Source: McClellan Market Report via X)

The Hindenburg Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously, most notably the market being in an uptrend, a large number of stocks hitting both 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the same day, and fundamentals turning negative.

While the omen has a history of preceding major market crashes like 1987 and 2008, it also produces false signals and is considered more reliable when multiple signals appear in a short period.

“I wouldn’t sweat this one yet. One signal has about a 25% chance of being right,” notes our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “But we could see the market peak in the coming months and a selloff in 2026.”

Nevertheless, this follows our general guidance for today’s markets – take some profits off the table now. Or, as our friend Bill Bonner likes to quip, “Panic now and avoid the rush.”

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! we’ll be joined by bestselling author Harry Dent on the cross-section between AI, shifting generational demographics and a shocking market forecast. More details to come…

Feel free to send your leading questions for Harry to feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The Hindenburg Omen signaled a crash last week, conveniently in time for Halloween:

Hindenburg Omen signals tend to cluster before a market crash. (Source: McClellan Market Report via X)

While the omen has a history of preceding major market crashes like 1987 and 2008, it also produces false signals and is considered more reliable when multiple signals appear in a short period.

Nevertheless, this follows our general guidance for today’s markets – take some profits off the table now. Or, as our friend Bill Bonner likes to quip, “Panic now and avoid the rush.”

~ Addison

Feel free to send your leading questions for Harry to feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Progressives learned long ago that you don’t have to win an argument if you can simply redefine the words.

Regardless of what’s happening in stocks, the same long bond can be a good buy for a retiree and an expensive obligation for everyone else.

The same uncertainty driving investors out of speculative assets is sending them toward dollars and Treasury securities.

Behind the drama unfolding at Nvidia, Big Tech is borrowing to keep the AI buildout chugging along just as the Treasury needs trillions.

Progressives learned long ago that you don’t have to win an argument if you can simply redefine the words.

Regardless of what’s happening in stocks, the same long bond can be a good buy for a retiree and an expensive obligation for everyone else.

The same uncertainty driving investors out of speculative assets is sending them toward dollars and Treasury securities.

Behind the drama unfolding at Nvidia, Big Tech is borrowing to keep the AI buildout chugging along just as the Treasury needs trillions.