The Hindenburg Omen, triggered

November 3, 2025 • 1 minute, 4 second read

The Hindenburg Omen signaled a crash last week, conveniently in time for Halloween:

Hindenburg Omen signals tend to cluster before a market crash. (Source: McClellan Market Report via X)

The Hindenburg Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously, most notably the market being in an uptrend, a large number of stocks hitting both 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the same day, and fundamentals turning negative.

While the omen has a history of preceding major market crashes like 1987 and 2008, it also produces false signals and is considered more reliable when multiple signals appear in a short period.

“I wouldn’t sweat this one yet. One signal has about a 25% chance of being right,” notes our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “But we could see the market peak in the coming months and a selloff in 2026.”

Nevertheless, this follows our general guidance for today’s markets – take some profits off the table now. Or, as our friend Bill Bonner likes to quip, “Panic now and avoid the rush.”

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! we’ll be joined by bestselling author Harry Dent on the cross-section between AI, shifting generational demographics and a shocking market forecast. More details to come…

Feel free to send your leading questions for Harry to feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Ripple Effect

The Hindenburg Omen, triggered

Addison Wiggin

November 3, 2025 • 1 minute, 4 second read

Hindenburg

The Hindenburg Omen signaled a crash last week, conveniently in time for Halloween:

Hindenburg Omen signals tend to cluster before a market crash. (Source: McClellan Market Report via X)

While the omen has a history of preceding major market crashes like 1987 and 2008, it also produces false signals and is considered more reliable when multiple signals appear in a short period.

Nevertheless, this follows our general guidance for today’s markets – take some profits off the table now. Or, as our friend Bill Bonner likes to quip, “Panic now and avoid the rush.”

~ Addison

Feel free to send your leading questions for Harry to feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The Debasement Trade, A Legacy

November 7, 2025 • James Hickman

Real assets in general tend to hold their value during inflationary periods — because they’re not just paper promises. They’re tangible. They’re productive. They’re the raw inputs the economy is actually built on.

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

The world does not exist without energy. Full stop. People have been fed a ridiculous lie that oil is going to disappear and we’re all going to drive solar-powered EVs and Exxon is going to go out of business.

Forward March, Dollar 2.0

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

China’s Ant Group is filing trademarks for “Antcoin” while the Party debates whether digital dollars threaten national sovereignty. And in Singapore, StraitsX cofounder Samson Leo frets about regulatory fragmentation: “If every jurisdiction requires us to split reserves across their banking systems, customer protection will diminish.”

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

The Engels’ Pause Is Here

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

A Masterclass In Absurdity

November 6, 2025 • Lau Vegys

If you’re from New York—or know anyone there—you’ll probably agree: most New Yorkers are fed up with crime, the outrageous cost of living, government incompetence and corruption—and, yes, the rats.

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.

Their hatred of Donald Trump—and a steady diet of MSNBC—has made them blind to the obvious: it’s the Left’s policies creating these problems. You have rent control shrinking supply by forcing landlords to pull units from the market, union giveaways jacking up the cost of transportation, zero-bail laws putting criminals back on the streets, and so on and so forth.

The Debasement Trade, A Legacy

November 7, 2025 • James Hickman

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

Forward March, Dollar 2.0

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

The Engels’ Pause Is Here

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

A Masterclass In Absurdity

November 6, 2025 • Lau Vegys

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.