The Fed Rate Cut Drives Up Long-Term Yields

September 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 39 second read

In September of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50-points. Long-term yields went up.

The bond market reaction revealed something new to us.

Gone are the days (1999) when a Time headline proclaimed that Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers could save the markets as part of a Committee to Save the World.

The Fed can only lower the Federal Funds Rate — the rate that determines the annual interest rate on overnight deposits between banks and the central bank.

Unlike the dotcom boom and bust, the Fed and Treasury today have to deal with a higher debt-to-GDP ratio and (farther) out-of-control deficit spending.

Bond investors know the game.

So… it’s no surprise, really, that last year’s trend is on repeat, despite the much-bally-hooed rate cut last week:

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Following the Fed’s rate cut last week, bond traders pushed up yields on the 30-year
Treasury from 4.65% to 4.76%. (Source: CNBC)

For now, short-term investors — think money market and savings accounts — will see a drop in their yields.

But… despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s best efforts to finance the US government’s mounting pile of debt… longer-dated bonds are offering even higher yields.

For savers, there’s an option to grab those high yields while you can.

~ Addison

P.S.While the bond market is continuing to fight the Fed, defensive asset classes are taking off. Gold is well over $3,700 per ounce. Silver has topped $43 and may be on its way to retest its old highs at $48.

Plus, commodities such as uranium are breaking out after consolidating over the summer, and copper remains near highs. There’s still room for the commodity space to run.

This week on Grey Swan Live!, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer and contributor Shad Marquitz will review the latest developments in the commodity space and determine the best commodity plays through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Ripple Effect

The Fed Rate Cut Drives Up Long-Term Yields

Addison Wiggin

September 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 39 second read

bond market yields

In September of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50-points. Long-term yields went up.

The bond market reaction revealed something new to us.

Gone are the days (1999) when a Time headline proclaimed that Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers could save the markets as part of a Committee to Save the World.

The Fed can only lower the Federal Funds Rate — the rate that determines the annual interest rate on overnight deposits between banks and the central bank.

Unlike the dotcom boom and bust, the Fed and Treasury today have to deal with a higher debt-to-GDP ratio and (farther) out-of-control deficit spending.

Bond investors know the game.

So… it’s no surprise, really, that last year’s trend is on repeat, despite the much-bally-hooed rate cut last week:

Turn Your Images On

Following the Fed’s rate cut last week, bond traders pushed up yields on the 30-year
Treasury from 4.65% to 4.76%. (Source: CNBC)

For now, short-term investors — think money market and savings accounts — will see a drop in their yields.

But… despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s best efforts to finance the US government’s mounting pile of debt… longer-dated bonds are offering even higher yields.

For savers, there’s an option to grab those high yields while you can.

~ Addison

Plus, commodities such as uranium are breaking out after consolidating over the summer, and copper remains near highs. There’s still room for the commodity space to run.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Debanking the Outsider

December 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Debanking the Outsider

December 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.