The Fed Rate Cut Drives Up Long-Term Yields

September 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 39 second read

In September of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50-points. Long-term yields went up.

The bond market reaction revealed something new to us.

Gone are the days (1999) when a Time headline proclaimed that Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers could save the markets as part of a Committee to Save the World.

The Fed can only lower the Federal Funds Rate — the rate that determines the annual interest rate on overnight deposits between banks and the central bank.

Unlike the dotcom boom and bust, the Fed and Treasury today have to deal with a higher debt-to-GDP ratio and (farther) out-of-control deficit spending.

Bond investors know the game.

So… it’s no surprise, really, that last year’s trend is on repeat, despite the much-bally-hooed rate cut last week:

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Following the Fed’s rate cut last week, bond traders pushed up yields on the 30-year
Treasury from 4.65% to 4.76%. (Source: CNBC)

For now, short-term investors — think money market and savings accounts — will see a drop in their yields.

But… despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s best efforts to finance the US government’s mounting pile of debt… longer-dated bonds are offering even higher yields.

For savers, there’s an option to grab those high yields while you can.

~ Addison

P.S.While the bond market is continuing to fight the Fed, defensive asset classes are taking off. Gold is well over $3,700 per ounce. Silver has topped $43 and may be on its way to retest its old highs at $48.

Plus, commodities such as uranium are breaking out after consolidating over the summer, and copper remains near highs. There’s still room for the commodity space to run.

This week on Grey Swan Live!, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer and contributor Shad Marquitz will review the latest developments in the commodity space and determine the best commodity plays through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Ripple Effect

The Fed Rate Cut Drives Up Long-Term Yields

Addison Wiggin

September 22, 2025 • 1 minute, 39 second read

bond market yields

In September of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50-points. Long-term yields went up.

The bond market reaction revealed something new to us.

Gone are the days (1999) when a Time headline proclaimed that Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers could save the markets as part of a Committee to Save the World.

The Fed can only lower the Federal Funds Rate — the rate that determines the annual interest rate on overnight deposits between banks and the central bank.

Unlike the dotcom boom and bust, the Fed and Treasury today have to deal with a higher debt-to-GDP ratio and (farther) out-of-control deficit spending.

Bond investors know the game.

So… it’s no surprise, really, that last year’s trend is on repeat, despite the much-bally-hooed rate cut last week:

Turn Your Images On

Following the Fed’s rate cut last week, bond traders pushed up yields on the 30-year
Treasury from 4.65% to 4.76%. (Source: CNBC)

For now, short-term investors — think money market and savings accounts — will see a drop in their yields.

But… despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s best efforts to finance the US government’s mounting pile of debt… longer-dated bonds are offering even higher yields.

For savers, there’s an option to grab those high yields while you can.

~ Addison

Plus, commodities such as uranium are breaking out after consolidating over the summer, and copper remains near highs. There’s still room for the commodity space to run.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Stay the Course on Bitcoin

November 21, 2025 • Ian King

The narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies is that every government around the world has high debt-to-GDP ratios. It means they are going to print more currency. It means there is a need for alternative currency. In the past, this alternative currency was gold.

Gold is not very portable. It’s a good store of value. It’s not as great of a store of value as BTC in terms of actually storing it. BTC, you can store it on a hard drive or at Coinbase. Gold, if you have bars you have to keep them in a bank or you have to dig a hole in your backyard. And you can’t send gold around the world as easily as you can send BTC.

I still think this rally has legs. If you go back to where the breakout happened, we were really in November of 2024 that was the beginning of this bull market in my mind because that was the first time we hit an all-time high in a couple years. Then we rallied. We pulled back. We tested that level again.

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

A $900 Billion Whiplash

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

About Yesterday’s Slump

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

The Internet Just Got Its Own Money

November 20, 2025 • Ian King

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

The telegraph made news global and opened up a world of investment opportunities. Radio, and then television, ignited a new wave of prosperity for investors. And the internet made communication instant, creating fortunes for those who saw what was coming.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

If you have Coinbase building the payment rails, Circle handling settlement and projects like Worldcoin and Particle Network solving for identity and wallets — do you really need a bank to validate transactions and keep track of who owns what?

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.

Stay the Course on Bitcoin

November 21, 2025 • Ian King

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

A $900 Billion Whiplash

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

About Yesterday’s Slump

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

The Internet Just Got Its Own Money

November 20, 2025 • Ian King

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.