The Earnings Silver Lining

The Dow and Nasdaq dipped into correction territory on Monday – down 10% from all-time highs. The S&P 500 Index hasn’t joined yet, but it may in a few days.

The good news? So far, the Iran war and oil spike haven’t spilled over into corporate earnings. In fact, they’re still growing:

Even though the market is nearing correction territory, corporate earnings have continued to rise, offering investors a more compelling valuation. (Source: The Compound)

As a result, this current market sell-off is lowering valuations, particularly on high-flying tech names.

The bad news? Once we see corporate earnings start to slide, it’ll give markets a bigger reason to decline than short-term headlines that swing by the day.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see financial stocks weaken, given the problems in private credit that are now coming to light. And we expect tech stocks will eventually stop delivering blowout quarters for investors – another move that could trigger a bigger sell-off.

But even higher oil prices lasting longer than expected could weigh on corporate earnings across the board – and give the market a fundamental reason to decline.

~ Andrew

P.S. It could be a good time to look at real estate. Or just turn off your news feed and set off for new horizons.

On last week’s Grey Swan Live, we dove into international real estate with the piece we filmed in Panama. We sat down with Ronan McMahon at The Gathering, hosted by Ronan and our friends at Real Estate Trend Alert (RETA).

RETA members are able to get exclusive discounts on real estate projects in top destinations like Panama, Mexico, Portugal and more.

We’ve also published the 2026 RETA Index report with Ronan’s top destinations to buy in 2026 with the replay.

Ronan and his team will also make their masterclass in international real estate available to paid-up members of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.

This masterclass is your complete road map to owning overseas in 2026. In six videos, they will take you through everything you need to know, starting right at the beginning.

They aren’t holding anything back. Ronan is sharing all the key lessons he’s learned in two and a half decades of buying and scouting real estate overseas.

The Dow and Nasdaq dipped into correction territory on Monday – down 10% from all-time highs. The S&P 500 Index hasn’t joined yet, but it may in a few days.

The good news? So far, the Iran war and oil spike haven’t spilled over into corporate earnings. In fact, they’re still growing:

Even though the market is nearing correction territory, corporate earnings have continued to rise, offering investors a more compelling valuation. (Source: The Compound)

As a result, this current market sell-off is lowering valuations, particularly on high-flying tech names.

The bad news? Once we see corporate earnings start to slide, it’ll give markets a bigger reason to decline than short-term headlines that swing by the day.

But even higher oil prices lasting longer than expected could weigh on corporate earnings across the board – and give the market a fundamental reason to decline.

~ Andrew

P.S. It could be a good time to look at real estate. Or just turn off your news feed and set off for new horizons.

RETA members are able to get exclusive discounts on real estate projects in top destinations like Panama, Mexico, Portugal and more.

We’ve also published the 2026 RETA Index report with Ronan’s top destinations to buy in 2026 with the replay.

They aren’t holding anything back. Ronan is sharing all the key lessons he’s learned in two and a half decades of buying and scouting real estate overseas.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.