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Ripple Effect

The Bull Market Turns Four

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 18 second read


Bull Market

The Bull Market Turns Four

The last real bear market – excluding the Liberation Day selloff earlier this year – ended in mid-October 2022.

The stock market is now completing the third year of a bull market run, and going into a fourth year.

Here’s how the current rally stacks up with the first three years of historic bull markets:

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After three years, the current bull market is stronger than average (Source: Carson)

Our current bull market is stronger than average, coinciding with the retail rollout of ChatGPT.

In year four, we could expect smooth sailing – except this year we’re in the early stages of a terrifying bull market, driven by investors getting out of a weak dollar, not anything fundamentally sound in stocks.

For now, the bulls are clearly in control. And, as we saw yesterday, investors are likely to lap up stocks and other risk-on assets on every dip.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which we filmed last Tuesday, will be released on October 16 in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.Our estimate? $20 trillion dollars will migrate to these platforms. That’s a Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Keep your eyes peeled this Thursday.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Harry Dent: The Bubble That Just Keeps Going: Is AMD the Last Blow-Off?

November 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Investors still playing this should have a quick trigger, as bubbles always burst twice as fast as they build.

We have seen one index, sector or leading stock after the next go up and make dramatic new highs.

The latest one is AMD.

This leading AI stock is following Nvidia, making a dramatic last run straight up and will hit a top trend line around $275 as this chart shows. It’s already hit $243 last Monday.

Harry Dent: The Bubble That Just Keeps Going: Is AMD the Last Blow-Off?
The Patience of Cash

November 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

When the greatest buyer in markets prefers T-bills to headline-grabbing names, he’s telling you the bargains he wants simply aren’t available.

We don’t look at Berkshire stack of T-bills as a bearish forecast, although many will. Rather, it says more about the market discipline Buffett has exhibited his entire career.

Best pockmarked by the statements: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”… and this chestnut: “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”

The Patience of Cash
The Hindenburg Omen, triggered

November 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The Hindenburg Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously, most notably the market being in an uptrend, a large number of stocks hitting both 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the same day, and fundamentals turning negative.

While the omen has a history of preceding major market crashes like 1987 and 2008, it also produces false signals and is considered more reliable when multiple signals appear in a short period.

The Hindenburg Omen, triggered
How To Know When It’s the Top

October 31, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

My mum remembers the gold fever – and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then – that’s how insane that spike was.

She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.

So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves.

We are not there yet.

How To Know When It’s the Top