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Ripple Effect

The Bull Market Turns Four

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 18 second read


Bull Market

The Bull Market Turns Four

The last real bear market – excluding the Liberation Day selloff earlier this year – ended in mid-October 2022.

The stock market is now completing the third year of a bull market run, and going into a fourth year.

Here’s how the current rally stacks up with the first three years of historic bull markets:

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After three years, the current bull market is stronger than average (Source: Carson)

Our current bull market is stronger than average, coinciding with the retail rollout of ChatGPT.

In year four, we could expect smooth sailing – except this year we’re in the early stages of a terrifying bull market, driven by investors getting out of a weak dollar, not anything fundamentally sound in stocks.

For now, the bulls are clearly in control. And, as we saw yesterday, investors are likely to lap up stocks and other risk-on assets on every dip.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which we filmed last Tuesday, will be released on October 16 in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.Our estimate? $20 trillion dollars will migrate to these platforms. That’s a Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Keep your eyes peeled this Thursday.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You