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Ripple Effect

The Bull Market Turns Four

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 14, 2025 • 1 minute, 18 second read


Bull Market

The Bull Market Turns Four

The last real bear market – excluding the Liberation Day selloff earlier this year – ended in mid-October 2022.

The stock market is now completing the third year of a bull market run, and going into a fourth year.

Here’s how the current rally stacks up with the first three years of historic bull markets:

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After three years, the current bull market is stronger than average (Source: Carson)

Our current bull market is stronger than average, coinciding with the retail rollout of ChatGPT.

In year four, we could expect smooth sailing – except this year we’re in the early stages of a terrifying bull market, driven by investors getting out of a weak dollar, not anything fundamentally sound in stocks.

For now, the bulls are clearly in control. And, as we saw yesterday, investors are likely to lap up stocks and other risk-on assets on every dip.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which we filmed last Tuesday, will be released on October 16 in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.Our estimate? $20 trillion dollars will migrate to these platforms. That’s a Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Keep your eyes peeled this Thursday.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.


Institutions Are Still Slow to Crypto Adoption

November 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Institutional investors are more interested in the crypto technology ecosystem – stablecoins and blockchain technology.

Rapid retail-driven four-year cycles are slowly giving way to longer cycles tied to market liquidity and economic trends.

Institutions Are Still Slow to Crypto Adoption
Stay the Course on Bitcoin

November 21, 2025 • Ian King

The narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies is that every government around the world has high debt-to-GDP ratios. It means they are going to print more currency. It means there is a need for alternative currency. In the past, this alternative currency was gold.

Gold is not very portable. It’s a good store of value. It’s not as great of a store of value as BTC in terms of actually storing it. BTC, you can store it on a hard drive or at Coinbase. Gold, if you have bars you have to keep them in a bank or you have to dig a hole in your backyard. And you can’t send gold around the world as easily as you can send BTC.

I still think this rally has legs. If you go back to where the breakout happened, we were really in November of 2024 that was the beginning of this bull market in my mind because that was the first time we hit an all-time high in a couple years. Then we rallied. We pulled back. We tested that level again.

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

Stay the Course on Bitcoin
A $900 Billion Whiplash

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

A $900 Billion Whiplash
About Yesterday’s Slump

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

About Yesterday’s Slump