Red Tribe Sensemaking

The Red tribe’s network evolved its orientation on H-1Bs over the holidays. The effort was a success, however, the dynamics exposed a vulnerability that threatens its future.

The Red Tribe’s leaders aren’t wearing suits in DC. They’re online.

The rapid defeat of last year’s massive pork-laden funding bill is an excellent example of that new power structure. It showed that the Red tribe’s online sensemaking (how the network dynamically evolves its orientation for Boyd fans) is upstream from Washington’s political battles.

Online Sensemaking

The after-Christmas online debate over H-1Bs is an excellent demonstration of online sensemaking. It is also a good reminder that although Elon Musk may be the de facto leader of the online Red tribe, he’s also enmeshed in a dynamic online ecosystem (see the November 2024 report Red Tribe Dynamics for more). Here’s a short recap of the initial phases of the event.

Trump appointed Sriram Krishnan, who is well respected in Silicon Valley, as a senior policy advisor on artificial intelligence.
This appointment triggered a backlash within portions of the Red tribe due to Sriram’s outspoken support for expanding the H-1B program.
In response, Elon Musk expressed unqualified support for Sriram’s appointment and the expansion of the H-1b program, which ignited a firestorm of criticism.

The arc of Elon’s responses between December 26 and 28 provides a helpful framework for understanding how the Red tribe’s networked sensemaking works.

Feedback Ignites. Elon: dismissing it as a minor issue, casual insults.

Feedback Grows. Elon: Belittle and ignore. Frustrated with the feedback he’s getting.

Feedback Overwhelms. Elon: Intense anger and insults. The framing is similar to the moral warfare of the blue tribe (deplorables/racists). Note: This was a mistake.

Feedback Continues to Grow. Elon: Threats. Moral argument for censoring critics (similar to the blue tribe). Note: this was another mistake.

Feedback Drives Adapation. Elon: Compromise, he evolves his digital ledger to accommodate the feedback. The controversy ends.

Now, let’s unpack some of the underlying drivers of this event to see what we can learn from it.

Elon’s Support for H-1B

Elon’s support for the H-1B program runs deep. Here’s why he was motivated to speak out:

He’s personally a beneficiary of the program.
His companies make heavy use of H-1Bs, both for top talent and cost-cutting. Also, H-1B employees saved him when he bought Twitter, and he’s loyal to them. They stayed at X — they couldn’t leave under the program and weren’t politically motivated to go — when most others left.
Elon sees the US as a magnet for the world’s top talent; H-1Bs make that possible.

The Opponents of H1B

This event emerged because the Red and Blue tribes use different orientations when making decisions (see the report, The Tribal Election for more). The Red tribe is roughly anti-globalist, and the Blue tribe is generally anti-nationalist (the orientation that has been dominant since the late 90’s);

Trump’s nomination of Sriram triggered a controversy that pushed the H-1B program into the forefront.
Early on, it was clear that many in the Red tribe saw the H-1B program as a blue tribe “globalist” program.
Elon’s unqualified and aggressive support for expanding the H-1B program put him at odds with a high percentage of his followers and many prominent Red tribe accounts.

Network Sensemaking

The most important part of this event was that it led to an intense sensemaking effort within the Red tribe using packetized media (see the report “Packetized Media” for more).

In the Red tribe, the big influential accounts constantly seek to make sense of the external environment.
It’s a dynamic, iterative, and individualistic (many different and competing digital ledgers from influential accounts) process of sensemaking that requires disagreement and adaptation.
In contrast, the Blue tribe seeks to judge information about the external environment based on its alignment with its shared digital ledger.
Sensemaking for the Blue tribe involves deciding whether something is good or evil, with little room for disagreement or nuance.
In the debate over H-1Bs,
The Red tribe rapidly discarded the packetized arguments claiming the H-1B program was an absolute moral good or any opposition was simply racism (this effort was categorized as Blue tribe ‘globalist’ sensemaking).
It then dispensed with packetized arguments that the tech sector couldn’t survive with H-1Bs, that Americans were culturally incapable of doing great work anymore (Vivek), and
that America is only innovative due to recent immigrants (all of the innovations the US generated during the 20th century were during a period of nearly zero immigration).
In parallel, the Red tribe began to
dig into the data on H-1Bs (it’s now very easy to do complex analysis with AI support, as we saw how quickly AI analysis uncovered the pork in the defeated ~1,300-page funding bill).
We also saw a flurry of insights into the program’s abuses (how big corporations were using this program to drive down the salaries of everyone from low-level accountants to financial analysts to program managers).
This new flow enabled Elon and the Red tribe to navigate towards more nuanced sensemaking. For example, Elon’s final, evolved position preserved the need to attract the world’s top talent while raising the income floor to root out the abuses of the H-1B program.

The Threats to Red tribe Sensemaking

This event showcased some of the dangers the Red tribe’s sensemaking faces.

The centrality of Elon Musk’s account to Red tribe sensemaking is both a strength and a vulnerability. It’s a positive because his wealth and ownership of X means that few outside interests can coerce his thinking (China and Israel, although due to Elon’s recently upgraded political status, it may be only China now). Also, a massive account (dynamic, highly evolved digital ledger) like Elon’s allows the Red tribe to rapidly focus its efforts and attacks at critical junctures (schwerpunkt). This focus makes it perfect for the Red tribe’s maneuver warfare.
However, the Red tribe isn’t just reliant on Elon’s influential account for turning its sensemaking into political power; it’s also dependent upon him to provide the network medium it runs on. This co-dependence is likely to cause problems.
The H-1B event provides a great example of how co-dependence is dangerous.
When it became apparent that Elon’s views on H-1Bs were substantially different than the nationalist orientation of the Red tribe, he became frustrated with his inability to force a shift in the orientation. This frustration quickly became a moral conflict (using a framing previously used by the Blue tribe, ‘contemptible racists’ —> ‘deplorable racist’) that culminated in a blatant threat (‘I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you can’t possibly comprehend.’) of network censorship, account bans, and algorithmic manipulation. This collapse was narrowly averted when Elon relented and evolved his position.

Did this Sensemaking Work?

Now that we intuitively understand the dynamics of Red tribe sensemaking, let’s ask the tricky question: Is it helpful? Does it point us in the right direction for achieving long-term success? Using this recent example, is a reformed H-1B program that cuts down on abusive excesses the way forward? Looking ahead to America’s future, this sensemaking result may be just what we need to navigate it successfully.

Over the next twenty years, a tsunami of virtual AI workers and AI-fueled robotic workers will flood the economy. Their rapid arrival will put heavy pressure on workers’ incomes in all industries not protected by artificial legal barriers.
If we remain as we are today, this technological innovation will run into difficulties (or be halted) since domestic jobs and incomes are under intense pressure from high volumes of illegal immigrants, H-1B workers, and virtual outsourcing efforts. These wage suppression policies would make it harder for early AI replacements to compete and guarantee extreme political resistance to the rollout. If that happens, other countries (China, etc.) fully embracing this shift will surge past us technologically and economically in just a few decades due to the leverage AI workers provide.
In contrast, if this new sensemaking (halting illegal immigration, reforming H-1B visas, and slowing virtual outsourcing) is adopted, we will likely see incomes for domestic work and living standards quickly rise without this suppression. This rise and the positivity it generates would greatly ease the adoption and acceptance of this technological transformation, accelerating its rollout. Over time, this technological shift would grow the economy and improve living standards magnitudes higher than any arbitrage of global labor surpluses could achieve.

John Robb, Global Guerillas