Party Like It’s 1998

Micron’s earnings did not disappoint after the bell last night.

Here and in our trading fraternity live podcast yesterday, we noted Micron has become one of the purest ways to play the AI buildout. Every new data center needs memory, and memory is Micron’s business.

But semiconductors are cyclical creatures. They gallop like racehorses on the way up and stumble like drunks on the way down. Micron’s stock chart has become an uncanny mirror of Google searches for “AI bubble.”

That’s enough to make investors nervous. But there is one important difference between today’s market and the dot-com circus that reached its climax in early 2000.

In the late 1990s, investors paid fortunes for companies that generated little more than press releases. Today, the AI infrastructure leaders are producing astonishing profits:

All of Micron’s divisions reported triple-digit year-over-year growth last night. (Source: App Economy Insights)

Micron’s latest results border on absurd. Every major division posted triple-digit year-over-year growth.

That’s exactly how great technology booms begin. Think back to the Internet between 1995 and 1998. The underlying innovation was real. Demand was real. Earnings were real. The speculation came later.

We’re beginning to see hints of that second act.

Hyperscalers are diverting billions from dividends and buybacks into AI infrastructure. Some are even borrowing to keep the spending spree alive.

Meanwhile, the next generation of AI companies is lining up for public offerings — even though many have yet to prove they can generate sustainable profits.

That’s the highway toward a 2000-style bust.

For now, however, earnings remain the market’s strongest defense against gravity. As long as profits continue to surprise to the upside, Wall Street can justify higher prices. JPMorgan still sees a path toward 7,800 on the S&P 500.

So, party like it’s 1998. Our forecast for a crack-up boom is very much in play. It’s a great time to buy the producers of the raw materials used to manufacture the hardware for the boom.

Today’s Grey Swan Pro also looks at a high-growth play in a commodity-related business that is seeing a surge in demand, again— details here.

Just keep in mind that every party eventually runs out of ice. After nine straight weeks of gains, investors have been accelerating down the runway.
What comes after remains a cause for concern.

~ Addison

P.S. This afternoon, we’ll host good friend and Jim Rickard’s investment strategist Dan Amoss for Grey Swan Live! You’ll want to tune in to Dan’s aggressive warning about the midterm Fed and Treasury tactics:

Grey Swan Live @ 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST today, June 25, 2026.

In a brief conversation we had with Dan following Warsh’s first press conference, Dan, skeptical, explained how he believes the Fed, even under Warsh, will be forced into “financial dominance,” a fancy way of saying monetary policy will be under Trump’s thumb at least until November.

Micron’s earnings did not disappoint after the bell last night.

That’s enough to make investors nervous. But there is one important difference between today’s market and the dot-com circus that reached its climax in early 2000.

In the late 1990s, investors paid fortunes for companies that generated little more than press releases. Today, the AI infrastructure leaders are producing astonishing profits:

All of Micron’s divisions reported triple-digit year-over-year growth last night. (Source: App Economy Insights)

Micron’s latest results border on absurd. Every major division posted triple-digit year-over-year growth.

We’re beginning to see hints of that second act.

Hyperscalers are diverting billions from dividends and buybacks into AI infrastructure. Some are even borrowing to keep the spending spree alive.

Meanwhile, the next generation of AI companies is lining up for public offerings — even though many have yet to prove they can generate sustainable profits.

That’s the highway toward a 2000-style bust.

A seemingly innocuous $2 billion Treasury announcement… economic warfare in Iran… and boom! A $1.3 trillion move in gold and silver.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.