Paper Promises, Metal Truths
Addison Wiggin / June 9, 2025
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero,” spake Voltaire in 1729. He never saw the Fed but still nailed the punchline. Today, we’ve got plenty of dramatic charts and record-breaking data to illustrate the philosophe’s point.
Let’s begin with a curiosity we’ve been observing since Liberation Day, April 2, 2025.
U.S. stocks finished last week in a gleeful sprint — Wall Street’s version of muscle memory whenever a China trade headline breaks in a friendly tone.
China’s now granting six-month rare earth licenses to U.S. automakers, and President Trump just sent his economic trio — Bessent, Lutnick, and Greer — off to meet their Beijing counterparts today.
Apparently, the rumors of a trade breakdown were exaggerated.
The same story has played out three, four, or maybe five times since Trump’s first term in office. The TACO traders are already used to it: bluster, brinkmanship, and then a vague sense of “progress” that makes markets pop like champagne corks.
And pop they did last week.
Mom-and-pop investors – who’ve been buying stocks for 25 of the past 26 weeks — just poured another $2.3 billion into equities. That’s the longest retail buying streak on record, beating out every euphoric run in 2022 and 2017… by double.
But here’s the curiosity.
Institutional investors, as we noticed last Friday, have been net sellers during the same period. And new research from Goldman Sachs reveals… so are foreign investors.
Overseas players have sold $44 billion in U.S. equities over the last two months. Year-to-date net outflows? $37 billion. That’s part of the reason why European stocks have been faring well year-to-date – although the ECB’s interest rate cuts also likely play a big role.
If you’re wondering who’s funding this dead cat bounce — look no further than your neighbor’s Robinhood account.
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Treasurys in Freefall, Silver in Liftoff
Here’s a chart you won’t see on CNBC: the market value of Treasury bonds as a percentage of total stock market value has dropped to its lowest level since the 1960s.
Our friends at Katusa Research give us this visual reminder that faith in Uncle Sam’s IOUs isn’t what it used to be:
Yields are rising. Which means prices are falling. Which also means bondholders — especially the retirees and pension managers still clinging to the “safe” stuff — are getting hosed.
Silver, by contrast, is staging a jailbreak.
The metal just smashed a 14-year ceiling and vaulted past $35 — drawing comparisons to the 2011 breakout that took it 36% higher in just seven weeks.
This breakout happened in 2011 (Source: Katusa Research and Bloomberg)
If history rhymes, that path leads us back to $49, a level hit in 2011 and 1980. Sure, adjusted for inflation, silver needs to top $150 per ounce to hit new real highs – but it’s the path that matters.
Forget the price target for a moment. The point is deeper. Gold and silver don’t “go up” in value — they just stand still while the dollar drowns.
A Roman senator could buy a fine toga for one ounce of gold. Today? You’ll get a tailored suit. Same metal. Same purchasing power. Two millennia later.
It’s not metal rising. It’s paper failing. More on that below…
AI, Eyeballs, and Apple’s Identity Crisis
Today, Apple kicks off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in Cupertino. This used to be a cause for celebration — tech enthusiasts queuing for coffee, bloggers live-streaming every keynote breath, and shareholders cheering from the sidelines.
This year? Not so much.
In 2022, Apple wowed with its M2 chip — performance, efficiency, the works. Then came the splashy Apple Vision Pro in 2023, which at least gave them headlines, if not market share.
Last year, Apple tried to join the AI circus with “Apple Intelligence.” The problem? Half the promised features didn’t show up at launch, and some are still missing. Building large language models is harder than designing aluminum bezels.
Now, we’re told, Apple will open its Foundation Models to third-party developers. There are also murmurs of an update to the Translate app.
Bloomberg reports the real push is already penciled in for WWDC’26, when Apple hopes to finally convince the world it’s an AI innovator — not just a stylish hardware company in a world racing toward software.
In the meantime, Apple stock is down 19% this year, making it the worst performer among the Magnificent Seven.
The company that once told the world to “Think Different” is now reacting late and thinking safe.
Meta also announced a multi-billion dollar investment in the AI data company Scale AI, founded by the neophyte, MIT-dropout Alexandr Wang. (This kid’s sharp. We’re researching his ideas alongside Andulir founder, Palmer Luckey. More of our findings Beneath the Surface later this week.)
Inflation Week: Powell’s Paper Chase
The Fed’s inflation dashboard lights up this week, and it’s going to be a busy one.
On Wednesday, we’ll get the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a fresh temperature reading on Trump’s tariff-stoked economy. Thursday follows with Producer Prices, and Friday brings the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report.
Taken together, it’s a full-course meal for Jerome Powell, who’s widely expected to hold rates steady later this month.
We’re likely to see President Trump ignore Elon Musk on Truth Social and return to getting all over JPow’s case – a return to Trump-era normalcy.
Gold Doesn’t Move — The World Sure Does
“Forecasting gold prices is a mug’s game in the short run,” Egon von Grayerz likes to say. But in the long run, it’s easy.
Because fiat currencies always do the same thing — they die.
Gold doesn’t beat or miss earnings. It doesn’t yield. It doesn’t default. It just waits, like an indifferent god, while governments and central banks do what they’ve always done: debase the currency, inflate the debt, and lie about both.
Measured in dollars, gold is racing toward $4,000. Silver could cross $50. But don’t be fooled into thinking the metals are changing.
Greyerz, the Swiss gold oracle, reminds us that inflation statistics started getting “revised” in the 1980s — Washington speak for dumbed down.
If we adjust gold’s 1980 high of $850 using official CPI, the equivalent price today is around $3,590. Not bad.
But if we adjust for real inflation — based on ShadowStats data before the inflation calculations started getting revised — the 1980 high translates to $29,200.
And silver? Its 1980 high of $50 becomes $166 using CPI… and a staggering $1,350 adjusted for real-world inflation.
So when someone tells you gold is overbought or silver is overheating, ask them this: compared to what?
Compared to fiat paper, it’s barely gotten started.
~Addison
P.S.: In the next Grey Swan Live! We’ll look at the other big story right now – the successful use of drone swarms by Ukrainian agents to hit Russian military targets deep behind the lines.
Grey Swan contributor John Robb has been discussing the rise of drone warfare for years, and he’ll be joining us to share more details about how this new phase of 21st-century warfare is likely to evolve.
You can view our prior interviews with John Robb – as well as last week’s interview with Frank Holmes – on our site.
P.P.S.: With the rise of gold and silver in mind, our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer, will be attending the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton next month.
The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies.
If attending the Symposium is of interest to you, click here to learn how you can join in the fun.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com