Daily Missive
Jesse Colombo: Did Gold and Silver Just Peak?
October 10, 2025 • 8 minute, 4 second read
“Because gold is honest money, it is disliked by honest men.”
-Ron Paul
October 10, 2025 — After hitting one new high after another, gold, silver, and mining stocks took a breather today.
Gold slipped 1.62% to close at $3,976.24, while silver managed to finish up 1.05% at $49.39, though still well below its earlier intraday high of $51.24. None of this should come as a surprise or cause for alarm. No asset moves straight up forever.
In fact, in my recent writings I have repeatedly noted that, despite my strong bullish outlook for the broader precious metals bull market, gold and silver have become overheated in the short term. A shallow pullback or period of sideways consolidation here would be both natural and healthy, allowing them to cool off, reset their overbought conditions, and build the base needed for even greater gains ahead.
On October 3, I said that silver was likely to pause just below its critical $50 psychological level. Rather than crashing, I expected a healthy, shallow pullback or brief consolidation that would allow it to gather strength before ultimately breaking through the $50 level that capped its rallies in 1980 and 2011. I recommend revisiting that piece to read my more detailed thoughts on the subject.
Here’s a relevant excerpt from that piece:
Now I want to say that I adamantly believe silver is going to surpass $50 and go much higher from there in the near future. However, there is something I want to point out. Because silver has surged so strongly and so quickly, it is a bit extended in the short term, which makes it likely that it will consolidate or pause before eventually breaking through $50. Evidence of this can be seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator, shown in the chart below, which provides overbought or oversold readings for assets. I respect what it indicates.
That being said, unlike many amateur investors and analysts, I am adamant that an overbought reading like the current one in silver is not an automatic signal to sell or an indication that the bull market is over. I recommend reading my tutorial on this topic to learn more. There is a very high likelihood that silver will experience a shallow pullback or move sideways for a time to work off its overbought condition. This would conserve energy for the next leg higher, when silver smashes through the $50 ceiling.
In that piece, I showed the long-term chart of silver and explained the importance of the $50 level, which capped the rallies in both 1980 and 2011 and led to sharp declines afterward. Once that level came back into play recently, I pointed out that it would be critical to watch how silver reacts there and that a brief pause or hiccup was likely before it ultimately breaks through (and I expect it to break through this time around).
Now let’s take a look at the daily chart to see how silver behaved today at that critical $50 resistance level. Early in the New York session, it made a sharp attempt to test that level but failed to close above it and then pulled back.
I’m not at all surprised by this since it’s exactly the scenario I was expecting. Everything is unfolding according to the playbook I’ve been following, which is reassuring. I always prefer when the market behaves as I had anticipated rather than catching me off guard because it reaffirms that I have a solid understanding of the mechanics of the market.
Next, let’s look at the intraday chart so you can see how silver almost exactly touched the $50 level before failing there and selling off about $3 an ounce over the next few hours. That is a textbook example of how key technical levels work and why everyone should pay attention to them.
Those who focus only on fundamentals are living in an ivory tower and are completely out of touch with how the markets work in the real world. Without knowing and following technicals, it is like flying blind.
Next, I want to show why silver is likely to experience a healthy, shallow pullback or a period of sideways consolidation to work off its overbought condition. The first chart compares how stretched silver has recently become relative to its 200-day moving average. As you can see, the last few times this occurred, pullbacks or periods of consolidation followed. However, I do not expect a strong pullback this time because we are still in the early stages of a powerful precious metals bull market, and it is normal to see pauses along the way.
While a brief consolidation may occur, I am not worried at all because silver remains in a confirmed uptrend, and the long-term trend is not at risk. This only refers to short-term market behavior. I also recommend revisiting my piece from one month ago, which explains in detail why I am not concerned about the possibility of a significant correction in precious metals at this early stage of the bull market.
Further confirmation that silver has become a bit overheated in the short term can be seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used momentum oscillator that helps identify whether an asset is overbought, oversold, or neutral. On silver’s daily chart, the RSI recently entered overbought territory. As a reminder, an overbought condition can be worked off through a period of sideways movement; a sharp pullback is not required for that to happen.
Next, let’s look at gold. Just a couple of days ago, everyone was celebrating gold’s move above the critical $4,000 psychological resistance level. But with today’s pullback, it slipped back below that level in both COMEX futures and spot, which makes me pause and think, as it indicates a rejection of that key level.
This increases the likelihood of a modest pullback or a period of sideways consolidation, as gold may have temporarily run out of momentum to push higher in the short term. That is perfectly normal, healthy, and not at all surprising. It is much like a sprinter who has just run hard and needs a moment to catch their breath.
Like silver, gold became overbought during its powerful surge since late August and has grown extended relative to its 200-day moving average. This indicates that it needs a brief pause to catch its breath before it can resume its upward sprint.
Gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sending the same message as silver’s, indicating that it is overbought in the short term.
Anyway, to summarize, there is a high likelihood that after their red-hot performances, gold, silver, and mining stocks are due for a healthy short-term pause to catch their breath. I do not expect it to last very long, nor do I believe it will do any damage to the underlying long-term secular bull market (learn more about that).
How am I playing this? Am I dumping my precious metals holdings in a panic? Absolutely not. That could not be further from the truth. I am staying put, still aligned with the uptrend, and doing nothing different. In fact, today’s pullback made me happy because I do not want to see precious metals overheat. I actually welcome a cooldown period because it gives me the opportunity to accumulate more. As an entrepreneur with a rapidly growing income, I want to keep channeling that income into additional precious metals before they take off for the moon.
I do not think many investors are truly ready for the precious metals train to leave the station for good, or for what that would mean for the global economy and world affairs. Once again, I encourage you to read my piece about how I approach confirmed uptrends like the one precious metals are in, which is to tune out the noise and negativity. Even though I wrote it a month ago, it remains just as relevant today. I will continue keeping you posted on what I am seeing.
Kind regards,
Jesse Colombo
The Bubble Bubble Report & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
P.S. from Addison: Gold’s move the past few weeks has been a bit too much, too fast. And with mainstream headlines now focusing on gold and silver as they hit these major price points, a healthy breather is just what the market ordered.
We still see plenty of opportunity in gold and silver in the years ahead. So any pullback in the space in the coming weeks and months is a good chance to position yourself accordingly if you haven’t yet.
Another reason why gold and silver have more room to run? Confidence in the dollar is shaky at best. Ian King and I have joined forces to discuss what we see as a Dollar 2.0 unfolding…
In fact, next week, we’re organizing a special Grey Swan Live! next Thursday, October 16 — Dollar 2.0: The Final Chapter.
You’re about to discover why October 21st could go down as one of the most important dates in American financial history.
That’s when a rare, federally mandated event could trigger the most powerful wealth shift in more than 80 years.
It could create a $20 trillion boom — and rewrite the rules of money for every American patriot.
For those who move fast…
Gains as high as 12X are in play, before 2030.
Ian King and I had a great time working on this research – and think you’ll benefit from what we have to say about the big changes ahead for the dollar.
More details to come next week – stay tuned!
If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.
