Harry Dent: The Bubble That Just Keeps Going: Is AMD the Last Blow-Off?

“A bubble is a bull market in which you don’t have a position.”

-Eddy Elfenbein

November 3, 2025 — There has simply never been a bubble like this one. Now it’s over 16.5 years, 5.0 – 5.5 is the typical bubble before it hits extremes that aren’t sustainable.

The last 5.5 years since COVID would qualify as a bubble on its own, but the performance all the way back to early 2009 is more bubbly than normal very good times like 1950-65.

Hence, to me this is the first 16.5-year bubble and still rising… surely it can’t go much more!

And major stock tops typically come in the fall of odd years, with only the early 2000 top as an exception, especially in September/October: like NOW!

Investors still playing this should have a quick trigger, as bubbles always burst twice as fast as they build.

We have seen one index, sector or leading stock after the next go up and make dramatic new highs.

The latest one is AMD.

This leading AI stock is following Nvidia, making a dramatic last run straight up and will hit a top trend line around $275 as this chart shows. It’s already hit $243 last Monday.

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Hopefully, AMD is the final blow-off, especially if it hits its top trend-line just ahead around $275.

Damn this bubble! Investors are so spoiled now it’s hard for them to see any substantial downside to be afraid of. Governments and central banks seem to have finally tamed “The Shrew.” I still think not, but… damn!

Harry
Harry Dent & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: This short piece is classic Harry – straight to the point, pulls no punches, and calls out bubble behavior to a T. We first met Harry way back… while doing research for Financial Reckoning Day after the collapse of the tech bubble.

Harry is a notable authority on demographic trends and had just published a book called The Roaring 2000s, in which he examined the investing trends of the baby boomers and how they were likely to impact the stock market indexes. As the stock market had just sustained a severe correction following the tech wreck, his forecast that the Dow and S&P 500 were about to embark on a multi-year bull market seemed outrageous.

In October of 1999, when Harry’s book hit the shelves, the Dow had yet to correct and was trading around 11,000. The Roaring 2000s then made the case that baby boomers preparing for retirement would drive the index above 35,000 within the decade.
In the throes of the tech bust, the forecast seemed improbable.

But today, quite the opposite. In fact, it sounds kind of quaint now, doesn’t it?
The Dow hit a historic 47,835 last Wednesday.

This week on Grey Swan Live!, (Thursday @ 2pm EST/11am PST) Mr. Dent will join us to bring us up to date on his demographic forecast for the next decade. And why he’s decided to “re-enter the public spotlight” with a forecast on the impact of the AI bubble and employment trends for the next generation.

We’ll also take a peek behind the scenes of the presentation Harry and Grey Swan alum Adam O’Dell will be releasing this Wednesday. They are forecasting that today’s tech bubble will end up much like the dotcom bubble… and will be digging into how, when and why.

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

“A bubble is a bull market in which you don’t have a position.”

-Eddy Elfenbein

November 3, 2025 — There has simply never been a bubble like this one. Now it’s over 16.5 years, 5.0 – 5.5 is the typical bubble before it hits extremes that aren’t sustainable.

The last 5.5 years since COVID would qualify as a bubble on its own, but the performance all the way back to early 2009 is more bubbly than normal very good times like 1950-65.

Hence, to me this is the first 16.5-year bubble and still rising… surely it can’t go much more!

And major stock tops typically come in the fall of odd years, with only the early 2000 top as an exception, especially in September/October: like NOW!

Investors still playing this should have a quick trigger, as bubbles always burst twice as fast as they build.

We have seen one index, sector or leading stock after the next go up and make dramatic new highs.

The latest one is AMD.

This leading AI stock is following Nvidia, making a dramatic last run straight up and will hit a top trend line around $275 as this chart shows. It’s already hit $243 last Monday.

Turn Your Images On

Hopefully, AMD is the final blow-off, especially if it hits its top trend-line just ahead around $275.

Harry
Harry Dent & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

But today, quite the opposite. In fact, it sounds kind of quaint now, doesn’t it?
The Dow hit a historic 47,835 last Wednesday.

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.

The narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies is that every government around the world has high debt-to-GDP ratios. It means they are going to print more currency. It means there is a need for alternative currency. In the past, this alternative currency was gold.

Gold is not very portable. It’s a good store of value. It’s not as great of a store of value as BTC in terms of actually storing it. BTC, you can store it on a hard drive or at Coinbase. Gold, if you have bars you have to keep them in a bank or you have to dig a hole in your backyard. And you can’t send gold around the world as easily as you can send BTC.

I still think this rally has legs. If you go back to where the breakout happened, we were really in November of 2024 that was the beginning of this bull market in my mind because that was the first time we hit an all-time high in a couple years. Then we rallied. We pulled back. We tested that level again.

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

The telegraph made news global and opened up a world of investment opportunities. Radio, and then television, ignited a new wave of prosperity for investors. And the internet made communication instant, creating fortunes for those who saw what was coming.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

If you have Coinbase building the payment rails, Circle handling settlement and projects like Worldcoin and Particle Network solving for identity and wallets — do you really need a bank to validate transactions and keep track of who owns what?

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.