Gold Forecasts Stock Market Volatility

The S&P 500 may be sitting near a record 7,000. But relative to gold, it’s been in decline.

Over the past three years, the market is up 45%, but gold is up 180%. Today the ratio of of the S&P to gold is down to 1.39:

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The S&P 500/gold ratio is in decline, suggesting market volatility. (Source: Bloomberg Intelligence)

Historically, a drop in the ratio under 1.5 signals increased market volatility. We had a bitter foretaste of that during last year’s tariff tantrum.

What happens when, say, AI companies meet or even exceed earnings this week? Or if the Fed meeting that starts today yields a surprise announcement?

To be fair, gold and silver having crossed $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively, will also be volatile. Selloffs are common during the market’s terrifying bull run.

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! – Thursday, January 29, 2026 at 2pm EST – we’ll be joined by Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert. Real estate – particularly bought in foreign locales – can avoid much of the volatility of traditional assets in the U.S.

Ronan’s going to treat us to real estate deals he’s got cooking in Mexico, Panama and Paraguay… it’s going to be a welcome tropical topic after this week’s bout with winter weather in North America.

Ronan’s also been scouting property in Venezuela – yes, Venezuela – following Trump’s abrupt capture of Nicolas Maduro to kick off the new year. We haven’t spoken to him yet about this property but we’ve heard he found beachfront condos for $15,000. Not everyone’s cup of tea, for sure. But if you’re into crisis investing… well, we’ll find out what deals Ronan has found.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The S&P 500 may be sitting near a record 7,000. But relative to gold, it’s been in decline.

Over the past three years, the market is up 45%, but gold is up 180%. Today the ratio of of the S&P to gold is down to 1.39:

Turn Your Images On

The S&P 500/gold ratio is in decline, suggesting market volatility. (Source: Bloomberg Intelligence)

Historically, a drop in the ratio under 1.5 signals increased market volatility. We had a bitter foretaste of that during last year’s tariff tantrum.

What happens when, say, AI companies meet or even exceed earnings this week? Or if the Fed meeting that starts today yields a surprise announcement?

To be fair, gold and silver having crossed $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively, will also be volatile. Selloffs are common during the market’s terrifying bull run.

~ Addison

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Silver is now up 54% year-to, err, month-to-date. And up over 280% since the start of 2025.

While we don’t know how much further upside is left, prior parabolic moves like these tend to lead to big pullbacks when they end.

“If you’re tempted to take a screenshot of your portfolio, it’s a good idea to take some profits while you’re doing that,” suggests our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer.

We’d do so to grab some of those silver profits, simply because even though we started dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) into gold and silver in 2018 – silver was $16.47 – no assets can go parabolic, like silver has, indefinitely.

Gold and silver are making new highs. Gold knocked on the door of $5,100 in overnight trading in Shanghai this morning. Silver, not to be outdone, is driving resource traders wild, cracking $116 up 15% today alone.

A year ago, one bitcoin bought roughly 40 ounces of gold. Today it buys 18.

Bitcoin was marketed as digital gold. Instead, Wall Street wrapped it in ETFs, margin accounts, and structured products.

We’ve entered a new territory on Wall Street: for the first time in recorded history, zero strategists are predicting a down year.

Not “most are bullish.”

Not “nearly all expect gains.”

Zero bearish calls for 2026.

Unanimity so complete it resembles a vote in a collapsing authoritarian state.

The Bank of Japan’s holdings of its own government’s bonds are now near a 10-year low.

The yen carry trade has been a constant in global finance for 3 decades. Currently, the unwind is throwing the Japanese government into a crisis of historic proportions.

Americans take note. Not only are Japanese bonds undermining the AI rally on Wall Street. The crisis is a cautionary tale for the U.S. efforts to finance its own historic debt load.