Et tu, Goldman?

Goldman Sachs joined Moody’s yesterday, raising its forecast to a 30% chance that the U.S. economy will go into a recession this year. Moody’s hiked its rating to 49% last week.

If oil prices stay higher for longer, both Wall Street firms say, consequences for the economy could get dire. The national banks of several G7 countries – England and Canada among them – have already announced plans for rate hikes:

Thanks to higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs now sees a 30% chance of a recession this year. Don’t bet on it. (Source: Goldman Sachs)

Don’t bet on it. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post yesterday – hinting at a deal with Iran and a cessation of the bombing there – was enough to knock oil down 12%.

Given the most recent earnings season, AI stocks, the real bait for retail investors in the stock market right now, will continue trading like it’s 1999.

When Wall Street banks like Goldman raise the needle on fear amid already jittery markets, it’s historically a contrarian sign that things will get better!

It’s a better trade to sell out of oil stocks – as we did in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity last week – and look to buy good companies or assets on the cheap. Software, precious metals and Dollar 2.0 assets are on sale right now.

Given that still elevated tech valuations will likely lead to a real meltdown in the major indexes, our money is still on gold.

~ Addison

P.S. For an analysis of where gold and silver are likely to go if the Fed is unable to deal with spiking energy costs and Congress continues to spend with abandon, see our report here: $22,227 Gold in 24 Months.

Last week on Grey Swan Live!, our natural-resources specialist, Shad Marquitz, provided a prescient look at gold and oil price volatility; the “whack-a-mole” trading environment set in motion by the war in Iran.

Shad systematically covered the mosaic of natural resource opportunities in oil, liquefied natural gas, antimony, tungsten and precious metals following the Iran bombing excursion.

If you’re looking for more than just a further investment in gold, look no further – Shad shared a list of smaller-cap companies that look promising across the commodity space now.

Click here to sign up for the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity if you’re not a member yet to get this latest insight – the replay is up on our site now. And catch Shad’s article in our recently-released March issue, looking at merger & acquisition activity in the gold miner space.

Don’t bet on it. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post yesterday – hinting at a deal with Iran and a cessation of the bombing there – was enough to knock oil down 12%.

Given the most recent earnings season, AI stocks, the real bait for retail investors in the stock market right now, will continue trading like it’s 1999.

When Wall Street banks like Goldman raise the needle on fear amid already jittery markets, it’s historically a contrarian sign that things will get better!

Given that still elevated tech valuations will likely lead to a real meltdown in the major indexes, our money is still on gold.

~ Addison

Shad systematically covered the mosaic of natural resource opportunities in oil, liquefied natural gas, antimony, tungsten and precious metals following the Iran bombing excursion.

If you’re looking for more than just a further investment in gold, look no further – Shad shared a list of smaller-cap companies that look promising across the commodity space now.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.