Goldman Sachs joined Moody’s yesterday, raising its forecast to a 30% chance that the U.S. economy will go into a recession this year. Moody’s hiked its rating to 49% last week.
If oil prices stay higher for longer, both Wall Street firms say, consequences for the economy could get dire. The national banks of several G7 countries – England and Canada among them – have already announced plans for rate hikes:
Thanks to higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs now sees a 30% chance of a recession this year. Don’t bet on it. (Source: Goldman Sachs)
Don’t bet on it. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post yesterday – hinting at a deal with Iran and a cessation of the bombing there – was enough to knock oil down 12%.
Given the most recent earnings season, AI stocks, the real bait for retail investors in the stock market right now, will continue trading like it’s 1999.
When Wall Street banks like Goldman raise the needle on fear amid already jittery markets, it’s historically a contrarian sign that things will get better!
It’s a better trade to sell out of oil stocks – as we did in the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity last week – and look to buy good companies or assets on the cheap. Software, precious metals and Dollar 2.0 assets are on sale right now.
Given that still elevated tech valuations will likely lead to a real meltdown in the major indexes, our money is still on gold.
~ Addison
P.S. For an analysis of where gold and silver are likely to go if the Fed is unable to deal with spiking energy costs and Congress continues to spend with abandon, see our report here: $22,227 Gold in 24 Months.
Last week on Grey Swan Live!, our natural-resources specialist, Shad Marquitz, provided a prescient look at gold and oil price volatility; the “whack-a-mole” trading environment set in motion by the war in Iran.
Shad systematically covered the mosaic of natural resource opportunities in oil, liquefied natural gas, antimony, tungsten and precious metals following the Iran bombing excursion.
If you’re looking for more than just a further investment in gold, look no further – Shad shared a list of smaller-cap companies that look promising across the commodity space now.
Click here to sign up for the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity if you’re not a member yet to get this latest insight – the replay is up on our site now. And catch Shad’s article in our recently-released March issue, looking at merger & acquisition activity in the gold miner space.
