The major indexes are all up today, shaking off last week’s whiplash and starting the short holiday stretch with a risk-on swagger.
Even our Dollar 2.0 plays — which took a respectable breather during the AI-driven correction — are bouncing hard, up as much as 5% in early trading.
A sleepy week can be a blessing: fewer headlines, fewer emotional stampedes, and a little space to watch economic data arrive without the usual manic interpretation.
Still, we’ll keep one eye on incoming reports — retail sales, delayed government prints, jobless claims — because even a quiet market week can whisper truths that get drowned out by the other fifty-one.
Tuesday and Wednesday will give us what data is available on retail sales before Black Friday:
Consumer confidence numbers will tell us how dismal consumers feel about the next few months.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), a more reliable and less hedonically adjusted measure of inflation than consumer prices (CPI) comes out.
The Case-Shiller home price index, which will give political strategists some “affordability” fodder.
Finally, the weekly jobless claims report will suggest how seasonal hiring for the holidays are shaping up.
Phew. It’s a lot.
We’re likely to need a strong tailwind in the markets to make it through Thanksgiving without any surprises.
Markets Bet Big on a December Cut
New York Fed President John Williams gave traders a holiday treat on Friday, admitting there may be “room for a further adjustment.”
Futures traders promptly lifted the odds of a December rate cut to nearly 75%, up from 40% just a week ago.
Two consecutive cuts in September and October have already greased the rails. If the Fed goes for a third, the “Santa Powell Rally” may arrive early.
₿ Crypto Rebounds Alongside Risk Assets
Bitcoin is back above $87,000, climbing off Friday’s lows near $81,000. It’s still far from its early-October peak at $125,000, but it’s moving in lockstep with the broader tech rebound. Crypto-related stocks are hopping:
• MicroStrategy up nearly 4%
• Marathon and Coinbase up nearly 5%
As we noted this morning, ETF outflows continue to pour from the crypto universe — $3.5 billion gone so far this month — but that may level off if this morning’s rally holds.
A sleepy week with a rising tide is better, in our opinion, than a noisy one with carving knives out.
Retail Traders Load Up on Bearish Tech Bets
Last week, retail traders stampeded into the 3x leveraged short Nasdaq ETF, SQQQ, with what looked like $12 billion of inflows.
Massive inflows into ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ fund suggest traders are sitting tight for the week, with a strong short in case the market hits the fan while they’re traveling to see family. (Source: Fact Set)
After adjusting for the reverse split, the real number is likely around $2.4 billion, which is still enormous.
In our view, this is the wrong kind of excitement.
Leveraged ETFs decay faster than leftover cranberry sauce. Choppy markets eat them alive. Today’s risk-on rally will teach some of these traders the lesson Wall Street teaches best: markets don’t care that you’ve made plans for Thanksgiving.
Oil’s Math Still Points Upward
Oil sits near $58, and the oil-to-money-supply ratio has slipped back into the historical danger zone of 0.00259.
Every time this ratio has appeared — 1998, 2016, 2020 — oil exploded upward by more than 150%.
AI’s coming electricity demand, shrinking reserves, and chronically underbuilt supply chains will resurface soon enough.
U.S.–EU Trade Talks Begin Without Urgency
Without the fanfare we saw in Asia in October, American officials land in Europe today to reopen trade negotiations with the U.S.’s largest trade bloc.
No one expects a deal — not on Day One, maybe not this year. The U.S. still imposes:
• 15% tariffs on most EU imports
• 50% tariffs on goods with steel and aluminum
Both sides know the dance steps, and neither side looks in a hurry. A perfect fit for a sleepy holiday week. Switzerland has already carved out bespoke guidelines independent of Eurozone countries, which will negotiate collectively.
Ozempic Doesn’t Help Alzheimer’s
We admit we have a co-morbid curiosity regarding GLP-1 drugs and their market share. Something fitting about Ozempic making its disruptive debut alongside ChatGPT and the digital asset space.
Novo Nordisk’s Alzheimer’s trial did not slow cognitive decline — despite improving biomarkers — and the stock fell over 10% in premarket trading. The weight-loss boom remains intact; the Alzheimer’s add-on is deferred indefinitely.
Investors don’t really appear to care one way or the other. But with the Trump administration picking winners and losers in this space, it will pay to keep an eye on data releases like this one.
Darwin’s Anniversary and Human Nature in Markets
On November 24, 1859, Darwin published On the Origin of Species, and the world has been debating evolution ever since. Like market bubbles, natural selection is slow, methodical, and merciless.
Humans, on the other hand, often behave like creatures born to chase shiny objects. In science and technology, knowledge builds on new discoveries and progress in a straight line. But in markets, politics, cultural fads — we repeat patterns that would make a Galapagos finch wince.
Even so, a somnambulant week gives us the rare luxury of watching the animal spirits calm themselves.
A rally across the indexes, a rebound in crypto, and Dollar 2.0 names catching a strong bid — all signs of life after a bruising few weeks of tumult.
Today, at least, the opening lowers the temperature a bit. Feel free to take your time and think about positioning without the fire alarms blaring.
You’ll be able to sift through the data that there is of it, without being stampeded by sentiment. That especially applies to our Dollar 2.0 positioning.
As you’ll know (if you attended Thursday’s Grey Swan Live! with Ian King and Mark Jeftovic) our guidance is to sit tight or accumulate at the lower price, depending on your risk profile.
And enjoy the shorter holiday week before the December jobs report, the next Fed decision, or geopolitical intrigue distracts markets anew.
~Addison
P.S.The replay of Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King is up — worth your time before carving the turkey. Especially with Dollar 2.0 stocks catching a bid again today.
Mark and Ian covered key developments in stablecoins and how the current selloff impacts our “Dollar 2.0” digital asset thesis, including specific guidance on the stocks in the Dollar 2.0 research report available to paid-up members.
While this is a holiday-shortened week, we’ve arranged for a special video presentation on Thursday with Tim Sykes.
Tim is one of the top traders in the game today – and he’s sharing details on a strategy he uses to find stocks ready to pop higher after markets reopen after the weekend.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
