Crypto’s Mainstream Moment

“It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

–Satoshi Nakamoto

May 16, 2025 — This week saw the most bullish sign for the crypto space in over a year.

Yet most investors missed it. It’s easy to see why. This sign is really a confluence of events.

The biggest sign this week came when Standard & Poor’s decided to update the companies that make up the S&P 500, the widely-followed index that’s used as a benchmark for performance.

The S&P 500 was about to become the S&P 499, thanks to the merger of Capital One Financial and Discover.

So, a new company is joining the ranks. And S&P picked cryptocurrency brokerage firm Coinbase (COIN).

Shares soared on the news.

After all, with all the money that passively buys into index funds – like most 401k plans – being in the index means some of that money passively flows to your company’s shares.

It’s also a sign of a company that’s steadily growing, and is sizeable enough to handle those inflows.

The key point, however, is that cryptocurrency investing has gone mainstream. You can’t passively invest in an index without some exposure to this new asset class.

But the Coinbase news is just one facet of crypto’s mainstream moment.

Small Cap Companies Take the Lead

Crypto adoption continues, with companies looking to add crypto services or simply buy bitcoin as a Treasury asset.

For small-cap companies, the buy announcement can mean a big move. The Blockchain Group has soared over 1,100% year-to-date following its move to add bitcoin to its balance sheet.

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But the hits just keep coming. Canadian crypto asset manager Defi Technologies just uplisted to the Nasdaq, under the ticker DEFT. Paid-up Grey Swan Investment Fraternity members may remember that this is a company mentioned by our crypto expert Mark Jeftovic just a few weeks ago in Grey Swan Live! – before shares surged 70% on the uplisting news.

Plus, bitcoin debit card company Fold (FLD) recently went public. Full disclosure: I have a Fold debit card, which provides rewards back in the form of satoshis, the smallest divisible unit of bitcoin. They offer a simple way to passively add to your bitcoin holdings. They’re testing out a credit card, and even bitcoin gift cards.

And, of course, MicroStrategy, the original corporate bitcoin buyer, has shortened its name to Strategy (MSTR). It’s hardly micro anymore, with a market cap over $100 billion. They’re buying with a combination of share issuances, convertible preferred stock, and a little bit of debt, and today now own over 2% of all bitcoin.

Corporate America isn’t quite all-in on bitcoin yet. But the trend is in that direction. And when companies with massive cash hoards start to put just 1-2% of their assets into bitcoin, the buying will go into overdrive.

Bitcoin’s Relentless Bid

Outside of the corporate sphere, investors have poured $6.7 billion into crypto funds year-to-date.

In the past four weeks as the market has rebounded, there have been $882 million of net inflows.

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But here’s the fun part: $867 million has gone just into bitcoin ETFs.

In other words, investors, whether retail or institutional, are putting 98% of their crypto money into bitcoin.

It’s easy to see why. Bitcoin isn’t just the original cryptocurrency. Its proof-of-work structure and hard cap of 21 million coins make its scarcity powerful.

In the meantime, every four years, the new supply of bitcoin drops. And with over 93% of total bitcoin now in existence, relentless corporate and investor buying in excess of the new supply creation suggests that prices are setting up for a big move higher.

A Modest Price Prediction for 2025

So what happens next in crypto? Everything that’s happening now, just on a slightly larger scale. Companies will continue to go public, raise capital, and buy assets like bitcoin.

That means bitcoin’s price could go far higher. One prediction, made by our industry colleague Ian King, suggests a run to $140,000 this year, about double the 2021 cycle peak.

However, one contrarian indicator suggests a bigger move.

According to CNBC analyst Jim Cramer, bitcoin won’t hit $200,000 this year.

Given how Jim Cramer’s predictions are so wrong that one institution even launched an inverse ETF to do the opposite of his recommendations, $200,000 bitcoin is starting to look reasonable. Position yourself accordingly.

Have a great weekend,

Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Andrew: We hold a few positions in the Grey Swan model portfolio designed to profit from the rise of bitcoin. And besides my interest in bitcoin, we do tap into a fantastic network of folks knowledgeable in the space, including Mark Jeftovic of The Crypto Capitalist.

Paid-up fraternity members can get the latest crypto insights in our monthly Grey Swan Bulletin, where we’ve started including a “Crypto Corner” page.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

–Satoshi Nakamoto

May 16, 2025 — This week saw the most bullish sign for the crypto space in over a year.

Yet most investors missed it. It’s easy to see why. This sign is really a confluence of events.

The biggest sign this week came when Standard & Poor’s decided to update the companies that make up the S&P 500, the widely-followed index that’s used as a benchmark for performance.

The S&P 500 was about to become the S&P 499, thanks to the merger of Capital One Financial and Discover.

So, a new company is joining the ranks. And S&P picked cryptocurrency brokerage firm Coinbase (COIN).

Shares soared on the news.

After all, with all the money that passively buys into index funds – like most 401k plans – being in the index means some of that money passively flows to your company’s shares.

It’s also a sign of a company that’s steadily growing, and is sizeable enough to handle those inflows.

The key point, however, is that cryptocurrency investing has gone mainstream. You can’t passively invest in an index without some exposure to this new asset class.

But the Coinbase news is just one facet of crypto’s mainstream moment.

Small Cap Companies Take the Lead

Crypto adoption continues, with companies looking to add crypto services or simply buy bitcoin as a Treasury asset.

For small-cap companies, the buy announcement can mean a big move. The Blockchain Group has soared over 1,100% year-to-date following its move to add bitcoin to its balance sheet.

Turn Your Images On

Bitcoin’s Relentless Bid

Outside of the corporate sphere, investors have poured $6.7 billion into crypto funds year-to-date.

In the past four weeks as the market has rebounded, there have been $882 million of net inflows.

Turn Your Images On

But here’s the fun part: $867 million has gone just into bitcoin ETFs.

In other words, investors, whether retail or institutional, are putting 98% of their crypto money into bitcoin.

It’s easy to see why. Bitcoin isn’t just the original cryptocurrency. Its proof-of-work structure and hard cap of 21 million coins make its scarcity powerful.

A Modest Price Prediction for 2025

So what happens next in crypto? Everything that’s happening now, just on a slightly larger scale. Companies will continue to go public, raise capital, and buy assets like bitcoin.

That means bitcoin’s price could go far higher. One prediction, made by our industry colleague Ian King, suggests a run to $140,000 this year, about double the 2021 cycle peak.

However, one contrarian indicator suggests a bigger move.

According to CNBC analyst Jim Cramer, bitcoin won’t hit $200,000 this year.

Have a great weekend,

Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Paid-up fraternity members can get the latest crypto insights in our monthly Grey Swan Bulletin, where we’ve started including a “Crypto Corner” page.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.