Crypto’s Mainstream Moment

“It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

–Satoshi Nakamoto

May 16, 2025 — This week saw the most bullish sign for the crypto space in over a year.

Yet most investors missed it. It’s easy to see why. This sign is really a confluence of events.

The biggest sign this week came when Standard & Poor’s decided to update the companies that make up the S&P 500, the widely-followed index that’s used as a benchmark for performance.

The S&P 500 was about to become the S&P 499, thanks to the merger of Capital One Financial and Discover.

So, a new company is joining the ranks. And S&P picked cryptocurrency brokerage firm Coinbase (COIN).

Shares soared on the news.

After all, with all the money that passively buys into index funds – like most 401k plans – being in the index means some of that money passively flows to your company’s shares.

It’s also a sign of a company that’s steadily growing, and is sizeable enough to handle those inflows.

The key point, however, is that cryptocurrency investing has gone mainstream. You can’t passively invest in an index without some exposure to this new asset class.

But the Coinbase news is just one facet of crypto’s mainstream moment.

Small Cap Companies Take the Lead

Crypto adoption continues, with companies looking to add crypto services or simply buy bitcoin as a Treasury asset.

For small-cap companies, the buy announcement can mean a big move. The Blockchain Group has soared over 1,100% year-to-date following its move to add bitcoin to its balance sheet.

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But the hits just keep coming. Canadian crypto asset manager Defi Technologies just uplisted to the Nasdaq, under the ticker DEFT. Paid-up Grey Swan Investment Fraternity members may remember that this is a company mentioned by our crypto expert Mark Jeftovic just a few weeks ago in Grey Swan Live! – before shares surged 70% on the uplisting news.

Plus, bitcoin debit card company Fold (FLD) recently went public. Full disclosure: I have a Fold debit card, which provides rewards back in the form of satoshis, the smallest divisible unit of bitcoin. They offer a simple way to passively add to your bitcoin holdings. They’re testing out a credit card, and even bitcoin gift cards.

And, of course, MicroStrategy, the original corporate bitcoin buyer, has shortened its name to Strategy (MSTR). It’s hardly micro anymore, with a market cap over $100 billion. They’re buying with a combination of share issuances, convertible preferred stock, and a little bit of debt, and today now own over 2% of all bitcoin.

Corporate America isn’t quite all-in on bitcoin yet. But the trend is in that direction. And when companies with massive cash hoards start to put just 1-2% of their assets into bitcoin, the buying will go into overdrive.

Bitcoin’s Relentless Bid

Outside of the corporate sphere, investors have poured $6.7 billion into crypto funds year-to-date.

In the past four weeks as the market has rebounded, there have been $882 million of net inflows.

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But here’s the fun part: $867 million has gone just into bitcoin ETFs.

In other words, investors, whether retail or institutional, are putting 98% of their crypto money into bitcoin.

It’s easy to see why. Bitcoin isn’t just the original cryptocurrency. Its proof-of-work structure and hard cap of 21 million coins make its scarcity powerful.

In the meantime, every four years, the new supply of bitcoin drops. And with over 93% of total bitcoin now in existence, relentless corporate and investor buying in excess of the new supply creation suggests that prices are setting up for a big move higher.

A Modest Price Prediction for 2025

So what happens next in crypto? Everything that’s happening now, just on a slightly larger scale. Companies will continue to go public, raise capital, and buy assets like bitcoin.

That means bitcoin’s price could go far higher. One prediction, made by our industry colleague Ian King, suggests a run to $140,000 this year, about double the 2021 cycle peak.

However, one contrarian indicator suggests a bigger move.

According to CNBC analyst Jim Cramer, bitcoin won’t hit $200,000 this year.

Given how Jim Cramer’s predictions are so wrong that one institution even launched an inverse ETF to do the opposite of his recommendations, $200,000 bitcoin is starting to look reasonable. Position yourself accordingly.

Have a great weekend,

Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Andrew: We hold a few positions in the Grey Swan model portfolio designed to profit from the rise of bitcoin. And besides my interest in bitcoin, we do tap into a fantastic network of folks knowledgeable in the space, including Mark Jeftovic of The Crypto Capitalist.

Paid-up fraternity members can get the latest crypto insights in our monthly Grey Swan Bulletin, where we’ve started including a “Crypto Corner” page.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

“It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

–Satoshi Nakamoto

May 16, 2025 — This week saw the most bullish sign for the crypto space in over a year.

Yet most investors missed it. It’s easy to see why. This sign is really a confluence of events.

The biggest sign this week came when Standard & Poor’s decided to update the companies that make up the S&P 500, the widely-followed index that’s used as a benchmark for performance.

The S&P 500 was about to become the S&P 499, thanks to the merger of Capital One Financial and Discover.

So, a new company is joining the ranks. And S&P picked cryptocurrency brokerage firm Coinbase (COIN).

Shares soared on the news.

After all, with all the money that passively buys into index funds – like most 401k plans – being in the index means some of that money passively flows to your company’s shares.

It’s also a sign of a company that’s steadily growing, and is sizeable enough to handle those inflows.

The key point, however, is that cryptocurrency investing has gone mainstream. You can’t passively invest in an index without some exposure to this new asset class.

But the Coinbase news is just one facet of crypto’s mainstream moment.

Small Cap Companies Take the Lead

Crypto adoption continues, with companies looking to add crypto services or simply buy bitcoin as a Treasury asset.

For small-cap companies, the buy announcement can mean a big move. The Blockchain Group has soared over 1,100% year-to-date following its move to add bitcoin to its balance sheet.

Turn Your Images On

Bitcoin’s Relentless Bid

Outside of the corporate sphere, investors have poured $6.7 billion into crypto funds year-to-date.

In the past four weeks as the market has rebounded, there have been $882 million of net inflows.

Turn Your Images On

But here’s the fun part: $867 million has gone just into bitcoin ETFs.

In other words, investors, whether retail or institutional, are putting 98% of their crypto money into bitcoin.

It’s easy to see why. Bitcoin isn’t just the original cryptocurrency. Its proof-of-work structure and hard cap of 21 million coins make its scarcity powerful.

A Modest Price Prediction for 2025

So what happens next in crypto? Everything that’s happening now, just on a slightly larger scale. Companies will continue to go public, raise capital, and buy assets like bitcoin.

That means bitcoin’s price could go far higher. One prediction, made by our industry colleague Ian King, suggests a run to $140,000 this year, about double the 2021 cycle peak.

However, one contrarian indicator suggests a bigger move.

According to CNBC analyst Jim Cramer, bitcoin won’t hit $200,000 this year.

Have a great weekend,

Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Paid-up fraternity members can get the latest crypto insights in our monthly Grey Swan Bulletin, where we’ve started including a “Crypto Corner” page.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!