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Beneath the Surface

Are We In a Bubble?

Loading ...Timothy Sykes

November 25, 2025 • 4 minute, 51 second read


AI bubble

Are We In a Bubble?

“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality are distorted by a misconception.”

— George Soros

November 25, 2025 — CNBC analysts are debating it.

Twitter threads are dissecting it.

Portfolio managers are losing sleep over it.

One question is dominating financial news right now:

“Are we in a bubble?”

The recent price action is adding fuel to the story:

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  • Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) down 35% from its highs…
  • Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) down 33%…
  • Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) down 46%…
  • Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) down 25%…
  • Bitcoin (BTC) down 30%…

The talking heads are calling it:

The AI bubble is bursting.

Growth stocks are crashing.

The party’s over.

So what’s my answer?

Are we REALLY in a bubble?

I Don’t Care If We’re In A Bubble

Truthfully…I don’t care if we’re in a bubble.

While long-term investors watch their portfolios bleed, I’m doing just fine.

My trading style doesn’t rely on the direction of the major indexes.

A major market crash would actually be good for my strategy.

When the big names tank, volatility explodes.

Short sellers pile in. Fear spreads like a virus.

Which creates the EXACT conditions where small caps can go parabolic.

When blue-chip growth stocks tank, traditional traders and investors lose billions.

But for a small-cap trader looking for explosive intraday moves?

It doesn’t matter at all.

I only care about stocks that can spike 100%, 200%, or even 300% in a single session.

The types of moves these mega-caps can’t even dream of…

Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OLMA)

OLMA exploded 197% in premarket trading on November 18.

From around $6 to over $17 in a few hours.

The catalyst? Competitor Roche announced positive Phase III trial results for a rival breast cancer drug.

The market interpreted the news as validation for the entire drug class.

OLMA went vertical.

Press release + Strong chart = The conditions for a parabolic move.

(A move you would NEVER find in mega-cap tech stocks…)

Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: CYPH)

CYPH rebranded from a biotech to a digital asset treasury company on November 13.

From around $1.50 in mid-August to over $9 by mid-November.

A 500%+ move in three months.

Low float. High short interest. A crypto pivot during volatile market conditions.

While everyone panicked about Bitcoin dropping 30%, CYPH was actually the best crypto play in the market.

Safe & Green Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SGBX)

From under $2 on November 13 to over $7 by November 20.

A 250%+ spike in one week.

The company pivoted from modular home construction to an integrated energy strategy.

It regained Nasdaq compliance. Management took compensation in stock. Retail traders piled in on the low float.

While Robinhood dropped 33% from its highs and Coinbase fell 46%…
SGBX tripled.*

What Most Traders Are Missing

The people worrying about the AI bubble are stuck in an outdated mindset.

Buy blue chips. Hold for years. Hope the indexes go up.

That strategy requires everything to cooperate.

And it takes forever to make meaningful gains.

Compare that to trading small-caps.

When the market tanks, short sellers flood into small-caps. Low-float stocks get hammered down.

Then one catalyst can trigger a face-ripping squeeze.

  • OLMA up 197% in premarket.
  • CYPH up 500%+ in three months.
  • SGBX up 250%+ in one week.

These types of moves ONLY happen in the small-cap niche.

You just have to know where to look.

A Crash Would Be A Good Thing

Let the big names keep falling…

A real market crash would be perfect for my patterns.

More volatility. More short sellers. More panic.

More opportunities for low-float runners to squeeze hundreds of percent higher.

While long-term investors watch their accounts shrink, I’ll be finding setups, cutting losses quickly, and taking quick gains.

That’s the advantage of trading small-caps and micro-caps.

You’re trading individual setups that have nothing to do with the “bubble.”

What Really Matters

The next time someone tells you the sky is falling because Coinbase dropped 46% or Robinhood fell 33%:

  • Ask them if they caught OLMA spiking 197% in a morning…
  • Or if they rode CYPH from $1.50 to $9…
  • Or if they saw SGBX explode from $2 to $7 in one week…

Spoiler Alert: They didn’t.

They were too busy staring at the big names. Too focused on the indexes. Too distracted by the bubble narrative Wall Street wants them to follow.

All while the BEST opportunities live in the stocks that Wall Street completely ignores.

Cheers,

Tim
Timothyskyes.com & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: We’re of the view that markets are in a bubble – driven in part by the Magnificent 7 stocks and all things AI. And that is worth caring about, given how the concentration of AI stocks is driving the overall stock market – along with your 401(k) plan – higher.

That makes Tim’s view on the opportunities in smaller-cap stocks an ideal place to potentially ride out a market storm.

Tim is also absolutely right that market selloffs provide better opportunities. While we see a bubble concentrated around AI names, more defensive-oriented sectors and areas of different growth look attractive here.

While this is a holiday-shortened trading week, we’ve arranged for a unique presentation with Tim Sykes on Thursday @ 2pm EST/11am PST during Grey Swan Live! Mr. Sykes will unveil a novel trading strategy we believe you may be interested in.

Tim Sykes is one of the top traders in the game today. We’ve been working with him in one capacity or another for over a decade.

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Spoiler alert: Tim uses a proprietary indicator to identify stocks on Fridays that are poised to spike higher when markets reopen after a given weekend. As you’ll see, Tim’s unique strategy is well-suited for consideration during the holiday season.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


The AI Boom’s Hidden Ticking Clock

November 25, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

We noticed yesterday, Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just set up a Substack page to help understand the proper depreciation values of the “Nvidia Model.”

The simple fact is that longevity estimates determine the entire profit picture for Mag 7 companies, whose earnings have been beating expectations.

The current numbers don’t reflect reality. Model sizes grow faster than chip cycles. Performance requirements leapfrog hardware before the ink dries on the purchase orders. Depreciation schedules assume years of usefulness that, in practice, last months.

If that mismatch becomes undeniable, or even a popular meme, the bubble doesn’t burst spectacularly — it simply deflates through balance sheets. Slowly. Silently. Just enough to take the glow off the entire narrative.

The AI Boom’s Hidden Ticking Clock
A Simple Pair Trade

November 25, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

When the Fed began hiking rates to combat inflation, bond holdings tanked. Banks have been sweating it out, anticipating a rate cut cycle.

If the Fed cuts rates in December — odds now 80% — bond prices will continue to rise. Banks will be in better shape as unrealized losses decline. Hopefully, before a crisis breaks out.

But banks are not out of the woods, yet. And increased competition from digital assets (Dollar 2.0) will further squeeze the traditional banking business model.

A Simple Pair Trade
Buffett’s Thanksgiving Message

November 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes—learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them.

Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who—reportedly—read his own obituary that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at what he read and realized he should change his behavior.

Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.

Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity, or great power in government. When you help someone in any one of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat the Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.

Buffett’s Thanksgiving Message
Energetic Open To A Sleepy Week

November 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

New York Fed President John Williams gave traders a holiday treat on Friday, admitting there may be “room for a further adjustment.”

Futures traders promptly lifted the odds of a December rate cut to nearly 75%, up from 40% just a week ago.

Two consecutive cuts in September and October have already greased the rails. If the Fed goes for a third, the “Santa Powell Rally” may arrive early.

Energetic Open To A Sleepy Week