Another Voice Joins the Dotcom Chorus

For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.

Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:

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The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)

Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.

That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.

However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.

If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.

Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.

~ Andrew

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.

Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.

Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:

Turn Your Images On

The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)

Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.

That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.

However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.

If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.

Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.

~ Andrew

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.

Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!