For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.
Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.
Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:
The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)
Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.
That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.
This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.
However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.
If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.
Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.
~ Andrew
P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!
The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.
Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.
Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.
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