Another Voice Joins the Dotcom Chorus

For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.

Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:

Turn Your Images On

The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)

Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.

That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.

However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.

If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.

Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.

~ Andrew

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.

Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.

Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:

Turn Your Images On

The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)

Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.

That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.

However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.

If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.

Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.

~ Andrew

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.

Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

However, our demographics plateau between 2007 and 2037 and then decline as far as the eye can see, and more sharply from 2054 into 2071, using recent 2024 immigration-adjusted births.

The important point here: This huge difference is not because of substantially higher birth rates among Australia’s native-born citizens. It’s due to higher immigration as a percent of its population. Unlike Japan and many European countries, they have a lot of space to fill, but so does the U.S.

We need more immigrants today and into the future, not less, if we are going to avert a major decline for our kids and grandkids as Japan has already seen since the mid-1990s.

Election Day always brings politics into the foreground — but today, it’s impossible to separate politics, economics, and power.

The machinery of government itself is on display: the shutdown entering its fifth week, the Supreme Court debating executive overreach, and New Yorkers choosing between competing visions of what fairness means in an age of debt and division.

We apologize to readers who’ve signed up to learn more about Dollar 2.0 and the “upgrade” of the global financial system we believe commenced with the Payments Innovation Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve on October 21st.

That’s part of a larger story which we are following with intent.

Today, however, Swan Dive is overtly political because the economy has become political by design. Money, power and politics are all uniquely woven into today’s headlines.

Palantir isn’t just expensive – it’s the most expensive name in the market today.

Investors who own the stock should pay attention. Famed Big Short investor Michael Burry’s Q3 disclosure shows he owns put options on Palantir, which means he’s betting he’ll make a lot of money when PLTR corrects.

Investors still playing this should have a quick trigger, as bubbles always burst twice as fast as they build.

We have seen one index, sector or leading stock after the next go up and make dramatic new highs.

The latest one is AMD.

This leading AI stock is following Nvidia, making a dramatic last run straight up and will hit a top trend line around $275 as this chart shows. It’s already hit $243 last Monday.