Another Voice Joins the Dotcom Chorus

October 15, 2025 • 1 minute, 35 second read

For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.

Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:

Turn Your Images On

The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)

Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.

That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.

However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.

If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.

Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.

~ Andrew

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.

Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

Ripple Effect

Another Voice Joins the Dotcom Chorus

Andrew Packer

October 15, 2025 • 1 minute, 35 second read

AI bubble dotcom bubble

For most of the year, we’ve compared the market action to the dotcom bubble.

Specifically, 2025 has been analogous to 1998 – a year after Alan Greenspan warned about “irrational exuberance” in the market, but years before the final blow-off top.

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has run his own analysis and has a more nuanced view:

Turn Your Images On

The AI bubble’s resemblance to the dot-com bubble continues. (Source: Fidelity)

Timmer looks at the 2022 market low – which coincided with the launch of ChatGPT, as a low point for stock valuations following a rise in interest rates.

That’s similar to where the market stood in 1994 after a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

This year’s Liberation Day selloff, which really started with the launch of Chinese AI Deepseek, is similar to the market meltdown amid the LTCM collapse.

However, the AI bubble is moving a bit faster, as Timmer’s data shows a gap in valuation that doesn’t match the price action of the 1990s.

If things play out similarly from here, 2026 could mark a multi-year peak for markets as a slowdown in AI spending starts to appear and stocks sell off.

Until then, trends are still bullish, with a blow-off top, or as we’ve been calling it, a “terrifying bull market” ahead.

~ Andrew

P.S. Our latest research with Ian King regarding Dollar 2.0, which Addison filmed last Tuesday, will be released tomorrow, October 16, in a special edition of Grey Swan Live!

The next regulatory environment for stablecoins favors three companies. We expect they will dominate the new monetary system as Trump guides digital assets into the mainstream.

Our estimate? $20 trillion will migrate to these platforms. That’s a positive Grey Swan event, if there ever was one.

Get ready – this latest research comes out tomorrow.

For an email reminder to receive our Dollar 2.0 research, please add your info here.

The Debasement Trade, A Legacy

November 7, 2025 • James Hickman

Real assets in general tend to hold their value during inflationary periods — because they’re not just paper promises. They’re tangible. They’re productive. They’re the raw inputs the economy is actually built on.

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

The world does not exist without energy. Full stop. People have been fed a ridiculous lie that oil is going to disappear and we’re all going to drive solar-powered EVs and Exxon is going to go out of business.

Forward March, Dollar 2.0

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

China’s Ant Group is filing trademarks for “Antcoin” while the Party debates whether digital dollars threaten national sovereignty. And in Singapore, StraitsX cofounder Samson Leo frets about regulatory fragmentation: “If every jurisdiction requires us to split reserves across their banking systems, customer protection will diminish.”

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

The Engels’ Pause Is Here

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.

A Masterclass In Absurdity

November 6, 2025 • Lau Vegys

If you’re from New York—or know anyone there—you’ll probably agree: most New Yorkers are fed up with crime, the outrageous cost of living, government incompetence and corruption—and, yes, the rats.

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.

Their hatred of Donald Trump—and a steady diet of MSNBC—has made them blind to the obvious: it’s the Left’s policies creating these problems. You have rent control shrinking supply by forcing landlords to pull units from the market, union giveaways jacking up the cost of transportation, zero-bail laws putting criminals back on the streets, and so on and so forth.

The Debasement Trade, A Legacy

November 7, 2025 • James Hickman

One of the most obvious opportunities right now — possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market — is energy.

Forward March, Dollar 2.0

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In the U.S., stablecoin rules remain tangled between crypto exchanges eager for new customers and small banks afraid of losing deposits.

Stablecoins today are where email was when businesses still faxed each other printouts of their inbox goes an apt analogy suggested by Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee.

The rails are there — the habits aren’t. But the shift is coming. And when it does, it won’t just change how we pay — it’ll change who gets paid.

The Engels’ Pause Is Here

November 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.

A Masterclass In Absurdity

November 6, 2025 • Lau Vegys

But the fact that a hard-core socialist like Mamdani is their favorite pick to solve those problems tells you that most voters have no idea why any of it is happening.